Tablet Market Projected to Surpass Notebooks in 2013, Total PC Market in 2015

[MacRumors]

Research firm IDC today released new projections showing that the firm expects tablet shipments to surpass shipments of notebook computers in 2013, marking a significant shift in how consumers approach portable devices. IDC projects that the strong growth of tablets will continue into the future, allowing tablets to overtake the entire PC market in 2015.

"What started as a sign of tough economic times has quickly shifted to a change in the global computing paradigm with mobile being the primary benefactor," said Ryan Reith, Program Manager for IDC's Mobility Trackers. "Tablets surpassing portables in 2013, and total PCs in 2015, marks a significant change in consumer attitudes about compute devices and the applications and ecosystems that power them. IDC continues to believe that PCs will have an important role in this new era of computing, especially among business users. But for many consumers, a tablet is a simple and elegant solution for core use cases that were previously addressed by the PC."

While Apple has remade the tablet market with the iPad, IDC notes that a proliferation of low-cost Android tablets is driving overall growth at this point. Apple's efforts have also shown that tablets are viable tools for the education market, opening up significant possibilities for sales growth.

"Apple's success in the education market has proven that tablets can be used as more than just a content consumption or gaming device," said Jitesh Ubrani, Research Analyst for the Worldwide Quarterly Tablet Tracker. "These devices are learning companions, and as tablet prices continue to drop, the dream of having a PC for every child gets replaced with the reality that we can actually provide a tablet for every child."

The success of tablets is undoubtedly coming as no surprise to Apple, as its executives have said a number of times over the past several years that they expect the tablet market to exceed that of PCs.

Article Link: Tablet Market Projected to Surpass Notebooks in 2013, Total PC Market in 2015

 

[FakeWozniak]

So will the price of traditional PCs go up as the economies of scale shrink?
I can see some vendors/resellers getting out of the "box" business.

 

[pixelpro]

There are two future tablet waves (just like any other tech hardware has gone through in past decades): Specialization and Miniaturization. Specialization will drive more task focused tablets (like Kindle) and Miniaturization will lead to innovative designs and interfaces, like watches. I personally am very excited to see all these trends. And Apple is amazingly positioned to succeed in both!

 

[ArtOfWarfare]

It's interesting to me that they don't expect the PC market to shrink significantly. It's good news for me because, for the moment, I prefer making apps for computers to making apps for mobile devices. That might change if Apple gives the App Store a radical overhaul and better markets their unique apps (rather than just promoting their apps that are already top sellers.)

 

[Mac21ND]

So will the price of traditional PCs go up as the economies of scale shrink?
I can see some vendors/resellers getting out of the "box" business.

Good question. I think of a company like Dell, who raced to the bottom of PC prices only to realize there was no profit. They've been trying to return, but it's very difficult to elevate a discount or low price leader to a mid-to-high leader. It's possible, but very difficult.

 

[nutjob]

So will the price of traditional PCs go up as the economies of scale shrink?
I can see some vendors/resellers getting out of the "box" business.

No, of course not, if desktop volume really does drop and tablets take over (doubtful), desktops will just start using components from tablets.

But meh, tablets are a toy, they might appeal to consumers but are otherwise pretty uninteresting.

 

[Liquorpuki]

There are two future tablet waves (just like any other tech hardware has gone through in past decades): Specialization and Miniaturization. Specialization will drive more task focused tablets (like Kindle) and Miniaturization will lead to innovative designs and interfaces, like watches. I personally am very excited to see all these trends. And Apple is amazingly positioned to succeed in both!

I'd add convergence as a third wave. The PC market can't go away entirely because the x86 software library is replaceable.

I see the PC being reborn as converged PC/mobile devices. This is one area where Apple is poorly positioned though.

 

[ValSalva]

Less expensive tablets will of course outsell PC's, even notebooks/laptops.

But the popularity of the iPad Mini makes me feel good that the Mac is safe. A bigger iPad could replace laptops for more people. But an iPad Mini and seven inch tablets are going to replace laptops for fewer people. It's a great complement to Macs though.

 

[firewood]

More people buy small cars than trucks and horse carriages these days. And in many places, including big university campuses, there may be a lot more people using bicycles and scooters than cars.

That doesn't mean that bicycles have replaced horses, truck tractors and airliners. Just that less people use them less often. There are a few, but very few people play polo, deliver refrigerators, or prepare photo spreads for National Geographic. Maybe you're one, but you'll have to pay for your tools. Not expect grandma to support the economy of scale necessary to make your horse stables, Peterbilt tractors and Bugattis cheaper.

IBM still sells mainframes. Not many and they are not cheap. The typical programmer hasn't seen one in decades. Thus heads the full tower desktop PC.

 

[TurnTronics]

One contributing factor could be that many tablets are now 3G/4G enabled, and users can access data from virtually anywhere in the world where there is not a WiFi hotspot. Notebook users do not always carry MiFi cards or have personal hotspots set up on their smartphones, and are required to wait until they are connected to a WiFi hotspot to access data.

 

[Ryth]

PCs will have their niche market. Just like most have cars, doesn't mean trucks don't have their own market...but a much smaller one.

The majority will be swapping to tablets because all they ever needed was an internet connected device to browse the web and do some email, minor work, and so on.

 

[Chupa Chupa]

So will the price of traditional PCs go up as the economies of scale shrink?
I can see some vendors/resellers getting out of the "box" business.

For consumers they'll go to $0. The best selling computers, Mac & PC for awhile have been laptops. The consumer desktop is likely to go way of the dinosaur by decade's end.

But take a look at another vintage electronic box, the VCR. When DVD peaked & only a couple companies still produced VCRs they were under $50 at stores because demand was low. Economies of scale is just another phrase for supply & demand.

 

[Elbon]

What's interesting about these projections is that they actually show an increase in the portable PC market over the next several years. I'm skeptical about that. I suspect that at least some tablet growth will come at the expense of laptop sales.

 

[ChrisTX]

Not surprising, but as much as I love my iPad, I still use my Mac quite often. iPad will never replace the desktop experience for me.

 

[samcraig]

Because they are cheaper and because many people who would have bought a notebook really just need a web browser and light productivity?

Ok. Exciting!

 

[iKane]

I know it's inevitable but I hate this. Until I can do simple things effortlessly on my iPad it will never be a viable alternative to my MacBook Pro. Just the process of trying to send an email with attachments other than just photos/videos is an absolute chore. On OS X, it's a piece of cake. I can add whatever I want to an email, on iOS I have to search for an appropriate app and hope it does what I want.

At this point I'm seeing a MacBook Air as a much better option for on the move computing. If it had 3G built in I would buy it yesterday.

 

[JarJarThomas]

I am a gamer.
And as long as i am a gamer i want a big fat desktop for gaming.
Consoles are just not good enough (no mouse, no multimonitor stuff, and as far as i can see it, even the new ones have less grafic power than current pc cards).

And yes ... for hardcore gaming i can't use a mac :-(

 

[Elbon]

Not surprising, but as much as I love my iPad, I still use my Mac quite often. iPad will never replace the desktop experience for me.

I agree that the *current* iPad experience isn't capable of replacing a desktop. However, I'll be very surprised if future iOS versions don't include more desktop-like features, making iOS a more compelling option as a desktop replacement.

 

[Ryth]

Not surprising, but as much as I love my iPad, I still use my Mac quite often. iPad will never replace the desktop experience for me.

Yep, but they said the same thing about the smart phone. Now the smart phone has replaced the portable computer for many.

Give it a few more years and I bet you (unless you are a professional user) that the iPad will replace the desktop for most (in fact, I reckon it already has for the majority of average users).

 

[Koulie]

Must be a slow news day, zzzzzzzzz

Rumors have been very lackluster lately, especially with WWDC in two weeks.
Hopefully they pick up soon!

 

[JarJarThomas]

I agree that the *current* iPad experience isn't capable of replacing a desktop. However, I'll be very surprised if future iOS versions don't include more desktop-like features, making iOS a more compelling option as a desktop replacement.

I agree.
If apple would design a "Document Center" as a center for documents with icloud support and optional plugins like dropbox, with a file browser functionality, everything would be fine for ios.

And if document center would be done right (support for simple versioning, backup integration, keywords/tags and good search) it would be even better for most people than current desktop handling.

 

[macFanDave]

Most people don't need computers -- they just need Internet appliances. They are strictly consumers of content and even if they have some urge to create, their basic needs can be met with simple Web-based tools.

People who program, those who require powerful apps to do their work and people who create sophisticated content are among the only ones that will continue to need full-pledged computers.

Fortunately, Apple makes the best tablet and those who value the superior user experience will continue to pony up for an iPad. We can't be bothered with the hordes of cheapskates.

 

[marco114]

I must be odd

I have all these devices, Mac Laptop, iPhone, Win/Linux Dual Boot PC, iPad Mini... yet I find myself preferring the desktop computer the most when it comes to actually working. Large Screen. Faster Typing, Computer is a rocket. I haven't updated my MacBook Pro in 3 years now, just because my PC is so fast and cost me $1200 to build. I'm a long time Mac user too, but I don't really care what environment I am working in, as long as it's useful.

iPadMini : watching YouTube videos, reading news
MacBookPro: when I need portability on the road, and iOS App Development
iPhone: Email, Dating Apps (yes, single, sigh), Business notifications, Facebook, Twitter, Foursquare
Desktop PC: Building Websites, Managing Servers, Running Tasks, Plex Video Server, Gaming, 24" Monitor, Wireless Keyboard/Mouse, Nvidia GTX780, 8 Core AMD 4Ghz, 32GB Ram, 2 x 3TB Hard Drives, Virtualization Software, etc..

 

[Mike MA]

Would be interesting to see some business related figures only.

 

[Ryth]

I agree.
If apple would design a "Document Center" as a center for documents with icloud support and optional plugins like dropbox, with a file browser functionality, everything would be fine for ios.

And if document center would be done right (support for simple versioning, backup integration, keywords/tags and good search) it would be even better for most people than current desktop handling.

Well if Microsoft would get off their a-- and get Office out for iPad then it would replace the PC for most...haha.

But seriously, Apple should do something like you are talking about and a better file system/storage, it would replace it for most.