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Tablet Market Projected to Surpass Notebooks in 2013, Total PC Market in 2015

ChrisTX said:
Not surprising, but as much as I love my iPad, I still use my Mac quite often. iPad will never replace the desktop experience for me.
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And the desktop will never replace the iPad experience for me.

I use both for different purposes. For work and development, I use a desktop. For casually looking things up while in the kitchen/living room, reading books, or when travelling, I use my iPad.

What Microsoft doesn't get is that I want 2 different experiences, not a combined experience. It's like when I'm working, I wear a suit and tie, but when I'm home I want to dress in a t-shirt and sweat pants. Microsoft would try to sell me the same suit and tie for BOTH occasions - but just take off the tie when you come home!
 
As much as I love my idevices all I see is yet another excuse to further dumb down the Mac as a serious platform. I may come across as a windows fanboy, but I couldn't be further from that. All the things good in OS X are worthless on the long run if the platform is lacking in professional applications and cutting edge driver and technology support. I am fine with going where the puck will be, but technology isn't like consumables where the product itself almost doesn't matter at all. I disliked when Apple discontinued the Xserve and stopped being the bastion of creative pros. Ok, I admit this is a bit far fetched, but when I switched I really thought of Apple as the possible next Silicon Graphics, the forerunner of technology (Pixar days). This is still true to some extent in the mobile computing and notebook field, but as a prosumer, or pro oriented enthusiast these forecasts are worrying me that the proper desktop OS will be left behind. I hope this is not entirely the case here.
 
bbeagle said:
And the desktop will never replace the iPad experience for me.

I use both for different purposes. For work and development, I use a desktop. For casually looking things up while in the kitchen/living room, reading books, or when travelling, I use my iPad.

What Microsoft doesn't get is that I want 2 different experiences, not a combined experience. It's like when I'm working, I wear a suit and tie, but when I'm home I want to dress in a t-shirt and sweat pants. Microsoft would try to sell me the same suit and tie for BOTH occasions - but just take off the tie when you come home!
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Come on dude...JEGGINGS!

;)
 
JarJarThomas said:
I agree.
If apple would design a "Document Center" as a center for documents with icloud support and optional plugins like dropbox, with a file browser functionality, everything would be fine for ios.
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Apple has specifically CHOSEN to not have a file system like other systems. It's not that they're lazy or can't do it - they have CHOSE to not do it. Apple envisions a future where people have single purpose files which only one application uses, and store those files within that application. This is a LOT easier for the masses to understand.

It's just like Apple not putting in a CD/DVD drive into a MacBook Air. It's not that they CAN'T do it, but they want to push people to use the Cloud.
 
macFanDave said:
Most people don't need computers -- they just need Internet appliances. They are strictly consumers of content and even if they have some urge to create, their basic needs can be met with simple Web-based tools.

People who program, those who require powerful apps to do their work and people who create sophisticated content are among the only ones that will continue to need full-pledged computers.

Fortunately, Apple makes the best tablet and those who value the superior user experience will continue to pony up for an iPad. We can't be bothered with the hordes of cheapskates.
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And keep in mind that we are comparing sales here and you can own both items. The basic consumer will buy a tablet. But the power user, he will also buy a tablet. Actually, I bet power users tend to have more tech products. I bet the power users who have powerful modern computers will have two or three tablets as well in the near future.

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Question for the group:

What percentage of iPad owners do you think DON'T own a Mac/PC? I'm going to guess that percentage is less than 1% (provided you don't count young kids who might have been given a tablet but who's parents own a PC).

Tablets are not cannibalizing PC sales. The internet is making PC upgrades useless for many as their current PC improves with improvements to internet services. That is what is going on here.
 
bbeagle said:
Apple has specifically CHOSEN to not have a file system like other systems. It's not that they're lazy or can't do it - they have CHOSE to not do it. Apple envisions a future where people have single purpose files which only one application uses, and store those files within that application. This is a LOT easier for the masses to understand.

It's just like Apple not putting in a CD/DVD drive into a MacBook Air. It's not that they CAN'T do it, but they want to push people to use the Cloud.
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And this wil be their downfall.
 
People can be very shortsighted. I see so many comments along the lines of "the iPad will never replace the desktop" or "tablets are just toys" but if people raised their heads a little and looked 2-3 years down the line the trends are clear - the days of the powerful box with big chunks of storage are numbered.

Trend 1: Fast, ubiquitous internet connections
Trend 2: Small, always on and always connected personal computing devices
Trend 3: Software as a Service
Trend 4: Cloud Storage
Trend 5: Cloud Computing

With fast, ubiquitous, internet connections plugging us into media, files, apps, server side computing, etc. the need for a large, powerful local box with a big HDD in it is fading fast. Now, a small, personal computing device that's always with us and always connected can do everything a big computer can do - and why not use a BT keyboard and mouse and a wireless monitor when you need to simulate that desktop environment?

In a few years the vast majority of heavy computing tasks will happen in the cloud - we won't need towers with massive numbers of cores running huge apps on our desks. I mean, we no longer use firewood and go to a local well for water - why would we still use local processing when we can get it done remotely and at a far smaller cost? We'll only store locally a small subset of our data and we'll have various input and display methods that we can shift to for specialised tasks like typing documents or managing large datasets.
 
Make since....most people don't need more than a tablet to surf the web. Especially with the availablily of cloud storage.
 
TallManNY said:
What percentage of iPad owners do you think DON'T own a Mac/PC? I'm going to guess that percentage is less than 1% (provided you don't count young kids who might have been given a tablet but who's parents own a PC).
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Let's talk about ... "don't own or stopped using a Mac/PC". Which would be people who are not going to buy a Mac/PC again. In that case, many of the iPad / tablet owners that I know personally (not professionally) fall into that category.

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Greg. said:
And this wil be their downfall.
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It sounds like you are a computer user and not an iPad user. The _majority_ of people don't care and never cared about a file system.
 
Post PC Era? :confused:

If you add the Tablet numbers to PC Sales numbers you see that the market is approaching 900 Million computing devices per year in those 2 sectors alone.
I really thought that PC sales had slowed a lot more. If those are replacement devices then there is huge market for recycling PCs.
 
bbeagle said:
Apple has specifically CHOSEN to not have a file system like other systems. It's not that they're lazy or can't do it - they have CHOSE to not do it. Apple envisions a future where people have single purpose files which only one application uses, and store those files within that application. This is a LOT easier for the masses to understand.

It's just like Apple not putting in a CD/DVD drive into a MacBook Air. It's not that they CAN'T do it, but they want to push people to use the Cloud.
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Apple doesn't include a file system because their strategy is to turn software into a commodity. If you make software simple by removing features and complicated procedures like manipulating file systems, it becomes more accessible so more people can use it and will buy Apple hardware to use it.

In Apple's perfect world, software would be a commodity like gasoline and Apple would have a monopoly on car sales. In MS's perfect world, everyone would buy MS gas and not care what car they drove. Reality is somewhere in between.

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TouchMint.com said:
I wonder how they categorize hybrid tablet/laptops.
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This is the funny part. Nobody knows how to categorize hybrids yet. Some analysts define them as convertibles don't count. Others group them all together. You can take any 2 tablet marketshare graphs and the Win8 numbers won't ever be the same.
 
A tablet supplements the PC experience, doesn't replace it. It's mostly a convenience thing (for me). I still need and want a PC (and for me again, specifically a desktop).
 
Unless iOS for iPad gets a lot more capable - file storage system for example! ability to change default apps for another... and more crucially, ability to do real multitasking...
they're going to get caught flat footed as the industry moves on. Based on this stat, people want their iPads to do everything. They want to do their computing from their couch, not their computer room. The iPad doesnt allow them to do that.
Try downloading a file from Yousendit for example!
Noone else in the game has got all of the above figured out...but at least theyre trying and moving that way... see: Windows 8.

kds1 said:
A tablet supplements the PC experience, doesn't replace it. It's mostly a convenience thing (for me). I still need and want a PC (and for me again, specifically a desktop).
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That's what people used to say about land lines and mobile phones. then mobile phones and PDAs..
 
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pixelpro said:
There are two future tablet waves (just like any other tech hardware has gone through in past decades): Specialization and Miniaturization. Specialization will drive more task focused tablets (like Kindle) and Miniaturization will lead to innovative designs and interfaces, like watches. I personally am very excited to see all these trends. And Apple is amazingly positioned to succeed in both!
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I call it revolution and evolution.
But the same thing as you are saying.

Specialisation = revolution.
Miniaturisation = evolution.
 
Liquorpuki said:
Apple doesn't include a file system because their strategy is to turn software into a commodity. If you make software simple by removing features and complicated procedures like manipulating file systems, it becomes more accessible so more people can use it and will buy Apple hardware to use it.

In Apple's perfect world, software would be a commodity like gasoline and Apple would have a monopoly on car sales. In MS's perfect world, everyone would buy MS gas and not care what car they drove. Reality is somewhere in between.
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I understand your analogy, but I think it's a little bit different.

In Apple's world, people with Apple cars get a generic warning light, and they must take the car into an Apple service location. The technicians there figure out that the car needs gasoline, and the car is filled. The apple car driver has no clue what 'gasoline' is, just that if they don't take their car to the service location, eventually their car will stop and it will be more costly for Apple car technicians to come to their location and diagnose 'out of gas'. But Apple will offer 'AAA-type on-road service'.

In Microsoft's world, Microsoft gas stations will have 20 different types of gasoline with bundled packages that come with oil changes, wiper blades and car washes. Microsoft won't care what car you drive, but you will have to tell Microsoft exactly what gasoline and packages you need at that moment.
 
bbeagle said:
I understand your analogy, but I think it's a little bit different.

In Apple's world, people with Apple cars get a generic warning light, and they must take the car into an Apple service location. The technicians there figure out that the car needs gasoline, and the car is filled. The apple car driver has no clue what 'gasoline' is, just that if they don't take their car to the service location, eventually their car will stop and it will be more costly for Apple car technicians to come to their location and diagnose 'out of gas'. But Apple will offer 'AAA-type on-road service'.

In Microsoft's world, Microsoft gas stations will have 20 different types of gasoline with bundled packages that come with oil changes, wiper blades and car washes. Microsoft won't care what car you drive, but you will have to tell Microsoft exactly what gasoline and packages you need at that moment.
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Wait, so a file system is a wiper blade here?
 
As much as I love my iPad, it could never replace the Desktop experience for me. Nor could the desktop replace the iPad, they are just different things, period.
Frankly, productivity-wise, I prefer the iPhone than the iPad. It's always inside my pocket and can do virtually everything the iPad would, just in a smaller screen.

I mostly use my iPad for reading and studying. Sometimes I'll surf the web and check my e-mails or eventually play simple-minded games, but that's it. It's most useful when I'm traveling, though.

For all that's left I need a real computer, whether it's my Desktop PC or my MacBook Pro. Then I can be free to do whatever I want with my machine, with a real file system, real software and REAL GAMES.
Well, even though they are such powerful machines, they lack simple features like portability and are definitely not useful for reading and studying, which is why I stick to the iPad for that. :rolleyes:
 
bbeagle said:
Apple has specifically CHOSEN to not have a file system like other systems. It's not that they're lazy or can't do it - they have CHOSE to not do it. Apple envisions a future where people have single purpose files which only one application uses, and store those files within that application. This is a LOT easier for the masses to understand.

It's just like Apple not putting in a CD/DVD drive into a MacBook Air. It's not that they CAN'T do it, but they want to push people to use the Cloud.
Click to expand...

I know that they can do it.
Not providing file explorer for ios was reasonable because
-> a phone is not a document management system, you have apps, you synch your documents with the apps, finished.
-> it is more secure, apps cannot access documents from other apps. Great.
as long as ios is a pure companion device, not having a file management system is perfect.

But on one hand, the times are changing. Tablets REPLACE pc's. They are not longer just a companion, they want to be more. The way how microsoft tries to fullfill this is windows 8 (wich i think is done badly if you want to bridge the gap)

And the document center would NOT necessarily replace the companion stuff, it would just be an addon like gamecenter.
The documents ARE stored in the different apps, ready for sync with icloud.
But it would be also an public interface usable by other apps to access them ... just like email would need it.

See photos, photos have a public pick ui, the document center would by like a photoviewer / pick ui not just for photos but for documents.

I don't think it is something that would be contrary to the current way how its handled.

There is to consider that the "no filebrowser" decision was made for ios on phones where it makes perfect sense.
For tablets wich are replacing notebooks it makes less sense.
 
I'm surprised how many people I hear say their iPad has/will replace their Mac or PC. Even just for web browsing or email, I hate having to use the on-screen keyboard, that alone has me reaching for my laptop or even going to the next room to use the desktop.

I'm sure some day the iPad might replace my Macs, but to do so it'll need a physical keyboard, with keyboard shortcuts, a far larger screen, the ability to display more than one document/app simultaneously, possibly more ports..

To replace my Mac it basically needs to become one.
 
it's pretty obvious that as entertianment devices, tablets and phones are more appealing to consumers. In business and content creation I am only just starting to see laptops get their door in the door in depts other than sales.
We've got people here with all three, ipad, macbook pro and mac pro. They still do a ton of work on the tower. It's "convenient" to fiddle with a project on an ipad. But when you are doing 40+ hours of work a week, there is no replacement for displacement.
But hey, I'm always wrong. I'm sure our next upgrade cycle we will buy a pallet of iPads and everyone will work on their projects "in the cloud".
 
bbeagle said:
I understand your analogy, but I think it's a little bit different.

In Apple's world, people with Apple cars get a generic warning light, and they must take the car into an Apple service location. The technicians there figure out that the car needs gasoline, and the car is filled. The apple car driver has no clue what 'gasoline' is, just that if they don't take their car to the service location, eventually their car will stop and it will be more costly for Apple car technicians to come to their location and diagnose 'out of gas'. But Apple will offer 'AAA-type on-road service'.

In Microsoft's world, Microsoft gas stations will have 20 different types of gasoline with bundled packages that come with oil changes, wiper blades and car washes. Microsoft won't care what car you drive, but you will have to tell Microsoft exactly what gasoline and packages you need at that moment.
Click to expand...
An analogy is supposed to be simpler and easier to understand than your topic, not more complex.
 
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