The Apple Watch is going to be huge success

[Symtex]

I remember when the first phablet came out (Galaxy Note)and how it was ridicule. Who needs to carry a phone that size ? Who needs a stylus ? It was the kind of device you needed to have in your hands for an certain period of time to really appreciate. It changed the smartphone market in the same way the iphone did.

Most people will not get the watch at first. It something you have to wear on you and start using to realize how it changes the way you interact with your smartphone. I was carrying an Galaxy Note 2 for 2 years. I received 200-300 emails a day, meeting invite, phone calls etc...Every day was the same, My phone would notify me of a incoming event, I would reach for my phone, type in the password and check what is going on. A few months ago, I got this little Samsung gear fit to replace my broken fitbit. That's when my view on smartwatches changed.

A watch is something you glance at for a brief moment, when needed. Receiving that quick notification of who sent you that email, who is calling you, 15min before your next minute without reaching into your pocket, without interrupting the conversation you are having. You can take a quick glance of what's happening and resume what you were doing.

All the other features the watch can do is just gravy over the primary function of quick notification. To anyone who got a a Iphone6+ this week (like me) loves the screen real estate but doesn't want to always reach for their phone for every little beep. The Apple Watch will be a perfect companion.

Ironically this week, my Samsung gear fit bracelet accelerometer stop working the same week I was switching back to iphone. I missed it terribly. 2015 can't come soon enough.

 

[mtmac]

I concur. I think few people realize how handy it will be.

The biggest problem with smart watch adoption has been the "geek factor." Apple solved this with both a solid design, and the many different styles available. People will realize a smart watch can make you look less geeky as you won't be constantly reaching for your phone. It will streamline many simple uses, including screening messages, weather and just looking at the time for some people. The taptic response for navigation and Apple Pay are compelling as well.

I think this will be an upgradeable devise on both the SS and gold versions, which should encourage generation one adoption like never before.

 

[Cashmonee]

What will define success? I think people here are thinking iPhone numbers (which is insane). I think Apple is probably thinking Apple TV numbers.

I think it will be successful enough for Apple to come out with the next gen. That will be the product to judge. Does it take off as the iPod, iPhone and iPad did in Gen 2? Or does it whither away?

 

[mtmac]

If they get Apple TV numbers, it will be a big disappointment for them. They sell a single aTV, while selling hundreds of combinations of watches. aTV is a hobby; they obviously view this as a larger market as they have put so much more into it.

Since you need an iPhone to make it work, selling iPhone #s is not achievable as that would equate to selling a watch for every phone. However, first gen watches will be compatible with 5,5s,5c,6,6+, so even if they can get 10% adoption, that is a lot of watches, and they are likely all more profitable than the phones, especially the upper lines.

Just like the iPod and iPhone, they may not know if they have a hit until a future generation takes off. Apple believes it has a winner; it is evidenced by the extensive line they have produced.

 

[spriter]

I'll be skipping this round of smart watches in the hope of better a rev B.

I do agree that the killer app is notifications and being able to reach for the phone or ignore at a quick glance.

The thing is I can get this on a number of alternative devices too. And some with way better battery life. I certainly don't need photos and tiny apps when my phone is in my pocket.

So I've opted for a Vivosmart on the basis that it's key function is to replace my fuelband for basic fitness tracking, alerting me of notifications and lasting a week per charge. It also costs way less than the bottom of the range iWatch.

That said, they will sell like crazy. Rev b, and how much iteration is done might just be the key to it becoming an essential yearly upgrade.

 

[Cashmonee]

If they get Apple TV numbers, it will be a big disappointment for them. They sell a single aTV, while selling hundreds of combinations of watches. aTV is a hobby; they obviously view this as a larger market as they have put so much more into it.

Since you need an iPhone to make it work, selling iPhone #s is not achievable as that would equate to selling a watch for every phone. However, first gen watches will be compatible with 5,5s,5c,6,6+, so even if they can get 10% adoption, that is a lot of watches, and they are likely all more profitable than the phones, especially the upper lines.

Just like the iPod and iPhone, they may not know if they have a hit until a future generation takes off. Apple believes it has a winner; it is evidenced by the extensive line they have produced.

Apple TV wasn't a hobby until it didn't sell. That quote came a few months after release when it was clear that the apple TV was a flop.

Perhaps these capture a few million iPhone buyers. Maybe 10-15 million. But the way most are talking here, is that this is the next revolutionary apple product that takes over and creates a whole new market. I don't see that.

 

[SHNXX]

Apple TV wasn't a hobby until it didn't sell. That quote came a few months after release when it was clear that the apple TV was a flop.

Perhaps these capture a few million iPhone buyers. Maybe 10-15 million. But the way most are talking here, is that this is the next revolutionary apple product that takes over and creates a whole new market. I don't see that.

I think everyone expects that several iterations down the line but most people would probably agree with you that this thing isn't going to sell as many as the original iPad did.

 

[Cashmonee]

I think everyone expects that several iterations down the line but most people would probably agree with you that this thing isn't going to sell as many as the original iPad did.

Perhaps. Gen 2 seems to be the key for Apple products. Look at the second iPod, iPhone 3G, iPad 2. Those were the models that sent them into the hockey stick growth. I think the second Watch is much more important than the first. So, in that sense, the current watch has to just enough to justify a second gen.

 

[Retired Cat]

Without knowing the battery life or the price or the usefulness of the final product, I think it's impossible to say until release day whether Apple Watch is a winner.

But I agree with others who believe that the 2nd generation watch is the most important device of this line. First generation Apple products hint at what's possible. It's what comes after that really impresses. This has been mostly true since the days of Apple ][.