This is a complicated question. Warning: rough numbers and lots of assumptions start here.
In logic systems, when work is performed heat is created. You can think of TDP (Thermal Design Point) is a budget for how much heat the particular chassis can dissipate. Therefore we can directly place a cap on the amount of computational work which can be performed in a chassis. Both lithography and architecture changes allow this fundamental to be altered. As the machine grows more efficient you can do more work while producing less heat. Thusly the chassis can do more work inside the same TDP.
Looking back at the last GPU shrink (40nm to 28nm) might allow us to infer some figures. Nvidia went from the GTX 580 to the GTX 680 and AMD went from the HD 6970 to the HD 7970. These are the easiest cards to get data on because they are flagship cards of the era.
On average performance increased by 15% and simultaneously power consumption decreased by 15%. You can't attribute everything here to a shrink. AMD released GCN and the 580 was a particularly inefficient card. Mobile GPUs gain more from shrinks than desktop GPUs. In the desktop you can usually dissipate the additional heat you create, it doesn't slow you down. In mobile the additional heat just causes more throttling.
We can make an educated guess about the iMac's TDP by consulting
this article. At 240W max TDP the iMac is dancing around its thermal limits under a gaming load. Assuming 50W idle not including CPU or GPU. Add 50W for CPU load (i7, not full load) and 125W for GPU load (M395X, full load). Add another 30W for interconnects, wireless, drive access, memory, audio, and so forth. That's 255W, beyond the TDPmax by a not insignificant amount. The iMac will be throttling at this time to limit the heat output and power consumption of the machine.
What if your GPU was 10% faster and 10% less power consumptive? Your 110W GPU will no longer cause throttling (hopefully) and so therefore will be 10% faster base. Plus add 12% because the old GPU had to run 15W down and do less work because of throttling. Call the new GPU 20% faster all else being equal.
That's my incredibly rough speculation and I'm sticking to it. Next year's die shrink iMac GPU will be at least 15-20% faster in the same enclosure. 50fps today is 60fps tomorrow.
Make note that this illustrates why PC towers are so much faster than iMacs for gaming. My PC tower has a 250W GPU; that is one card with the same TDP as an entire iMac computer.
Do you have a reference for this information? From my understanding Nvidia supports DP1.2 and MST.