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The future of Apple
- Thread starter dhdave
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Great Thread!!!
This thread has been a joy to read!! I hope I can contribute
As confirmation of you can't make $$ or Shareholder value with the PC as a commodity you only have to look at Gateway and the latest rankings of computer brands. Gateway is trying to buy market share with price cuts - they're losing $$ on every box but trying to make it up with volume.
As far as rankings go, one of the recent articles ranked "GENERIC WHITE BOXES" as one of the top in market share - the ones made by mom & pop and a whole bunch of small companies. In reality, Sun's Scott McNeally (sp) pretty much branded Dell as a Generic White Box assembler "Dell is not a computer company!"
I concur Apple needs more market share, but in reality 10% is probably pie in the sky. Mercedes and BMW would be ecstatic with that too
I'm not overwhelmed with iChat, but I actually think iCal is aimed at the business market - one more tool to help automate the office. Not sure what its limitations are
I would love to see more Ads for OS X and XServer. I'm tired of seeing ads for Dell - of course it was interesting to hear the logic for Dell servers was "independence from proprietary software" without saying Linux
I honestly think the enterprise market is a ripe target and Jobs has his eye on it. The most frequent complaint I hear from businesses of all types is "our servers are down". Linux has made big strides, but OS X Server on an XServer with XRAID could be an unbeatable combination!! The only barrier is that it may result in layoffs in the IT departments
This thread has been a joy to read!! I hope I can contribute
As confirmation of you can't make $$ or Shareholder value with the PC as a commodity you only have to look at Gateway and the latest rankings of computer brands. Gateway is trying to buy market share with price cuts - they're losing $$ on every box but trying to make it up with volume
.As far as rankings go, one of the recent articles ranked "GENERIC WHITE BOXES" as one of the top in market share - the ones made by mom & pop and a whole bunch of small companies. In reality, Sun's Scott McNeally (sp) pretty much branded Dell as a Generic White Box assembler "Dell is not a computer company!"
I concur Apple needs more market share, but in reality 10% is probably pie in the sky. Mercedes and BMW would be ecstatic with that too
I'm not overwhelmed with iChat, but I actually think iCal is aimed at the business market - one more tool to help automate the office. Not sure what its limitations are
I would love to see more Ads for OS X and XServer. I'm tired of seeing ads for Dell - of course it was interesting to hear the logic for Dell servers was "independence from proprietary software" without saying Linux
I honestly think the enterprise market is a ripe target and Jobs has his eye on it. The most frequent complaint I hear from businesses of all types is "our servers are down". Linux has made big strides, but OS X Server on an XServer with XRAID could be an unbeatable combination!! The only barrier is that it may result in layoffs in the IT departments
iCal and cheap macs
Actually, I am very excited about iCal. It saves me the trouble of installing a calendar webpage for the Head Start that recently bought a number of macs (iMac G3. G4, and a G4 server (pre-Xserver).
I wish Apple would sell a cheap box. If for no other reason then to bring people to the table. "I saw the $499, but this iMac looks so much better".
Here is my cheap box:
minitower or brick case - no speakers or monitor
G4 <= 700mhz
128mb memory (1 DIMM - 3 DIMM slots total)
40gb hard drive
DVD-ROM (optional combo drive)
2 USB
2 Firwire
headphone jack
maybe an Apple speaker minijack for connection to Apple Pro Speakers
10/100 Ethernet Port
Built-in antennas and card slot for optional 11Mbps AirPort Card
graphic processor with at least 32mb memory (shipped with adapter for VGA Monitors)
no modem, no PCI
I say G4 because of 10.2's optimizations.
sell it for $499.
Maybe the case could be an upside down T with the HD and DVD in the wider bottom. Put one of the USB ports on front under the drivers (for the keyboard). Pop a slot to install memory or airport card.
On a side note, since we got rid of floppies and students tend to like to keep their work with them, maybe we need a replacement. Perhaps equip every mac with a built-in CompactFlash (or SmartMedia, etc. whatever looks like it has the best future) reader/writer. Memorex sells a USB one for $25.
Heck make a version of the above system with the CompactFlash and without HD / DVD-ROM that netboots from an Xserver for all those labs.
Actually, I am very excited about iCal. It saves me the trouble of installing a calendar webpage for the Head Start that recently bought a number of macs (iMac G3. G4, and a G4 server (pre-Xserver).
I wish Apple would sell a cheap box. If for no other reason then to bring people to the table. "I saw the $499, but this iMac looks so much better".
Here is my cheap box:
minitower or brick case - no speakers or monitor
G4 <= 700mhz
128mb memory (1 DIMM - 3 DIMM slots total)
40gb hard drive
DVD-ROM (optional combo drive)
2 USB
2 Firwire
headphone jack
maybe an Apple speaker minijack for connection to Apple Pro Speakers
10/100 Ethernet Port
Built-in antennas and card slot for optional 11Mbps AirPort Card
graphic processor with at least 32mb memory (shipped with adapter for VGA Monitors)
no modem, no PCI
I say G4 because of 10.2's optimizations.
sell it for $499.
Maybe the case could be an upside down T with the HD and DVD in the wider bottom. Put one of the USB ports on front under the drivers (for the keyboard). Pop a slot to install memory or airport card.
On a side note, since we got rid of floppies and students tend to like to keep their work with them, maybe we need a replacement. Perhaps equip every mac with a built-in CompactFlash (or SmartMedia, etc. whatever looks like it has the best future) reader/writer. Memorex sells a USB one for $25.
Heck make a version of the above system with the CompactFlash and without HD / DVD-ROM that netboots from an Xserver for all those labs.
mccoma, have you been in a coma for a while???
The education pricing on the eMac starts at sub $1000 (with OS 9 and X). That's a 700MHz G4, 128MB SDRAM, 40GB HD, cd-rom or cd-rw drive, no modem, 17" crt (integrated short neck) along with all the Apple styling and included apps. The screen alone would run you ~$220-$250 (for similar form factor). You would also loose desk space if you have a cpu and monitor separate.
Contrary to what you might believe, speakers are indeed a important item when it comes to computers these days. Especially when it comes to education (the edutainment software needs/uses sound, twit).
I seriously doubt we will EVER see a Mac system (with a G4 or newer processor) come close to the $500 mark. It would take some major sales to get them to that level, a market share of over 15% most likely.
Apple rolls their R&D costs into the price of their hardware (and software it seems) where other computer makers can disperse that among multiple product lines. I wouldn't be surprised if IBM puts their desktop/laptop R&D costs onto their servers cost (which is why they are so damned expensive). It could also be part of why most computer companies have profits below projection, where Apple (most of the time) doesn't.
I, for one, don't really see a problem with what Apple is charging for the hardware. If they had higher sales numbers, then maybe the hardware price would be less. When it comes time for me to purchase a new Mac system, I have no problem justifying spending ~$2500 for a tower, or ~$3200 for a laptop.
The education pricing on the eMac starts at sub $1000 (with OS 9 and X). That's a 700MHz G4, 128MB SDRAM, 40GB HD, cd-rom or cd-rw drive, no modem, 17" crt (integrated short neck) along with all the Apple styling and included apps. The screen alone would run you ~$220-$250 (for similar form factor). You would also loose desk space if you have a cpu and monitor separate.
Contrary to what you might believe, speakers are indeed a important item when it comes to computers these days. Especially when it comes to education (the edutainment software needs/uses sound, twit).
I seriously doubt we will EVER see a Mac system (with a G4 or newer processor) come close to the $500 mark. It would take some major sales to get them to that level, a market share of over 15% most likely.
Apple rolls their R&D costs into the price of their hardware (and software it seems) where other computer makers can disperse that among multiple product lines. I wouldn't be surprised if IBM puts their desktop/laptop R&D costs onto their servers cost (which is why they are so damned expensive). It could also be part of why most computer companies have profits below projection, where Apple (most of the time) doesn't.
I, for one, don't really see a problem with what Apple is charging for the hardware. If they had higher sales numbers, then maybe the hardware price would be less. When it comes time for me to purchase a new Mac system, I have no problem justifying spending ~$2500 for a tower, or ~$3200 for a laptop.
I am pretty sure i haven't been in a coma, thanks for asking though
US Education pricing for the eMac starts at $949 with a CD-ROM, 700MHz PowerPC G4, 128MB SDRAM, 40GB Ultra ATA drive, CD-ROM drive, and No Modem. If you add a combo drive and a modem it goes to $1,099. This is educational, not the price Joe / Jane User pays. I still believe we need a machine under this ($400 - $600 without monitor).
People can get 17" monitors for less than $150.00 ($99 if you are willing to get refurbs with warranties). 19" monitors can be had for less than $300. Heck, pricewatch.com has 19" listed for $131 and 17" listed for $97. I can never upgrade a built in monitor. The eMac will always be 17". Also, a lot of PC users already have a monitor, thus lessening their switch cost.
I said no internal speakers not no speakers . I was expecting people to use the speakers they bought for their PC or buy some Apple speakers. Same strategy as above, lessen the cost of switching.
This would not be an education directed machine (eMac is already there). It is designed to bring people over or get them in the store so they will buy an iMac / eMac. There is a "leap of faith" going with a Mac and most people cannot justify huge expenses on "leaps of faith". You are already a Mac person. Gven the amount of money you can justify spending, you are probably successful in your chosen career and probably a power user. The new PowerMacs are built for you (maybe a converted XServer with a GeForce). Put yourself in the place of Joe Gateway or Jane Dell.
We need to get people in the door so they will sell this entry machine to a friend and go buy a PowerMac for that cool video stuff.
G4 is going to be entry level eventually. G3 would probably be more appropriate but I can't help but think of 10.2. Perhaps a 667 G4 like the bottom PowerBook.
US Education pricing for the eMac starts at $949 with a CD-ROM, 700MHz PowerPC G4, 128MB SDRAM, 40GB Ultra ATA drive, CD-ROM drive, and No Modem. If you add a combo drive and a modem it goes to $1,099. This is educational, not the price Joe / Jane User pays. I still believe we need a machine under this ($400 - $600 without monitor).
People can get 17" monitors for less than $150.00 ($99 if you are willing to get refurbs with warranties). 19" monitors can be had for less than $300. Heck, pricewatch.com has 19" listed for $131 and 17" listed for $97. I can never upgrade a built in monitor. The eMac will always be 17". Also, a lot of PC users already have a monitor, thus lessening their switch cost.
I said no internal speakers not no speakers .
I was expecting people to use the speakers they bought for their PC or buy some Apple speakers. Same strategy as above, lessen the cost of switching.This would not be an education directed machine (eMac is already there). It is designed to bring people over or get them in the store so they will buy an iMac / eMac. There is a "leap of faith" going with a Mac and most people cannot justify huge expenses on "leaps of faith". You are already a Mac person. Gven the amount of money you can justify spending, you are probably successful in your chosen career and probably a power user. The new PowerMacs are built for you (maybe a converted XServer with a GeForce). Put yourself in the place of Joe Gateway or Jane Dell.
We need to get people in the door so they will sell this entry machine to a friend and go buy a PowerMac for that cool video stuff.
G4 is going to be entry level eventually. G3 would probably be more appropriate but I can't help but think of 10.2. Perhaps a 667 G4 like the bottom PowerBook.
Once again, the huge majority of the negative posts involve what Apple isn't doing for THEM PERSONALLY. History really seems far beyond a lot of the posters here.. before X throngs of people were cursing Apple for not releasing Copeland or Rhapsody or any number of colored Box titles, and they wanted them released in whatever form they were in. Now Apple is the antichrist because X was released without having every single conceivable base covered. Well.. you really don't get to have it both ways.
If X doesn't have all the things you need yet, why are you running it? The answer is always "X is the future!" Ok, fine. Wait for the future, then, when it has all the support you need. I, for one, and like at least 80% of the rest of the Mac using world, could not care one whit less about whether X has MIDI support. Doesn't affect me in the least. But I have the sense to realize that it DOES matter to some Mac users, and therefore I want to see it included. I don't berate Apple for wasting time making it for those OTHER people, though.. Like so many of you do about the iApps and features that you don't want or use.
Start your own company or buy a few more million shares of Apple if you want a company run the way you want. Otherwise, grow up and accept that you are just one person, and not everything that Apple does will be done for YOU.
I will use iCal about twice, is my suspicion. Or maybe I will use it twice an hour.. I don't know, I've never tried a program like that. But I know a lot of people that live and die by their PDA's and PIM's that will probably want to have Steve Jobs' lovechildren if it's as nice as the reviews and the MW demo suggests.
Look how long it took Windows to work right (as much as it does) with USB devices.. or how amazingly bad the Plug'N'Play support still is in Linux... Microsoft is inconceivably large, and their PATCHES for XP are already at 50meg from a clean install. The first service pack is reportedly going to be 150meg.
No one gets it right on the first try.. or at least not right, and complete. So calm down, send Apple constructive feedback on what you feel needs to be improved/included, and then give them time to do it.
If X doesn't have all the things you need yet, why are you running it? The answer is always "X is the future!" Ok, fine. Wait for the future, then, when it has all the support you need. I, for one, and like at least 80% of the rest of the Mac using world, could not care one whit less about whether X has MIDI support. Doesn't affect me in the least. But I have the sense to realize that it DOES matter to some Mac users, and therefore I want to see it included. I don't berate Apple for wasting time making it for those OTHER people, though.. Like so many of you do about the iApps and features that you don't want or use.
Start your own company or buy a few more million shares of Apple if you want a company run the way you want. Otherwise, grow up and accept that you are just one person, and not everything that Apple does will be done for YOU.
I will use iCal about twice, is my suspicion. Or maybe I will use it twice an hour.. I don't know, I've never tried a program like that. But I know a lot of people that live and die by their PDA's and PIM's that will probably want to have Steve Jobs' lovechildren if it's as nice as the reviews and the MW demo suggests.
Look how long it took Windows to work right (as much as it does) with USB devices.. or how amazingly bad the Plug'N'Play support still is in Linux... Microsoft is inconceivably large, and their PATCHES for XP are already at 50meg from a clean install. The first service pack is reportedly going to be 150meg.
No one gets it right on the first try.. or at least not right, and complete. So calm down, send Apple constructive feedback on what you feel needs to be improved/included, and then give them time to do it.
My belief is that Apple, like so many other publically traded companies, is too focused on making money in the short term and not thinking about the long term impact of their business decisions. First, like many here have said before, Apple really does need to increase its marketshare and they need to do so by lowering the prices on one line of (not too obsolete) macs to create a sort of an onramp onto the mac highway.
As of march 31, Apple had over 2.2billion in cash sitting in its coffers, doing nothing. By using that money as a buffer and purposely taking a loss for the next 3-4 quarters by pricing say, the emac at $599-699, Apple will dramatically increase their marketshare. Thus, most of the new customers will probably stay and purchase higher end machines, eventually giving Apple greater profits in the future.
As of march 31, Apple had over 2.2billion in cash sitting in its coffers, doing nothing. By using that money as a buffer and purposely taking a loss for the next 3-4 quarters by pricing say, the emac at $599-699, Apple will dramatically increase their marketshare. Thus, most of the new customers will probably stay and purchase higher end machines, eventually giving Apple greater profits in the future.
If they don't increase their market share...
First of all I agree completely with whoever complimented this discussion...this is the most intelligent one I've seen on macrumors in a while.
Okay, now to my thoughts:
In World War 2, the U.S. made a decision to go "island hopping" in the Pacific (bear with me). They would invade island A, but then skip island B and go directly to C. They would describe this as letting island B "wither on the vine." We didn't need to actively conquer it. If we isolated it and ignored it, island B would eventually surrender of its own accord.
Apple needs to increase its market share, and FAST, because otherwise it's going to be island-hopped by Microsoft. MS doesn't actively need to do anything about Apple. If it just ignores it and continues on its merry way, its products--which are the standard for most activities nowadays (IE, Windows Media, Office, etc) will continue to dominate and Apple will be powerless to do anything about it.
Microsoft has committed to making one more Office--and that's it, that's all they'll say. If Microsoft kills Office for the Mac, Apple is in serious trouble, because it won't be able to make the argument that its computers can exist in a "Windows world."
MS is also developing a new Windows Media standard, Windows Media 9 Series or something like that. WM, as far as I can see, is becoming or already has become the de facto standard for streaming and for downloadable video etc. Microsoft however has said that it may not develop a player for WM9 for any platform other than Windows. This would be a SERIOUS problem.
I don't know how the iPod will sell to PC users, but it won't make them buy a Mac. If Apple doesn't get its share of home computer sales (not necessarily ownership, but just sales) up to the vicinity of 10% in the next few years I fear that our favorite tech company will just be left by the wayside.
First of all I agree completely with whoever complimented this discussion...this is the most intelligent one I've seen on macrumors in a while.
Okay, now to my thoughts:
In World War 2, the U.S. made a decision to go "island hopping" in the Pacific (bear with me). They would invade island A, but then skip island B and go directly to C. They would describe this as letting island B "wither on the vine." We didn't need to actively conquer it. If we isolated it and ignored it, island B would eventually surrender of its own accord.
Apple needs to increase its market share, and FAST, because otherwise it's going to be island-hopped by Microsoft. MS doesn't actively need to do anything about Apple. If it just ignores it and continues on its merry way, its products--which are the standard for most activities nowadays (IE, Windows Media, Office, etc) will continue to dominate and Apple will be powerless to do anything about it.
Microsoft has committed to making one more Office--and that's it, that's all they'll say. If Microsoft kills Office for the Mac, Apple is in serious trouble, because it won't be able to make the argument that its computers can exist in a "Windows world."
MS is also developing a new Windows Media standard, Windows Media 9 Series or something like that. WM, as far as I can see, is becoming or already has become the de facto standard for streaming and for downloadable video etc. Microsoft however has said that it may not develop a player for WM9 for any platform other than Windows. This would be a SERIOUS problem.
I don't know how the iPod will sell to PC users, but it won't make them buy a Mac. If Apple doesn't get its share of home computer sales (not necessarily ownership, but just sales) up to the vicinity of 10% in the next few years I fear that our favorite tech company will just be left by the wayside.
Curiousstrngmint,
What an excellent post. I think you've hit on the most fundamental danger. Microsoft's strategy of indirectly forced irrelevancy.
I am totally in agreement with you that for Apple to completely forsake Microsoft at this stage would be a huge mistake. I think it's safe to say that given the recent PR blitz by Microsoft during MacWorld Apple has definitely become a blip on Microsoft's paranoia radar screen. I think that may be just what Apple intended. Basically Steve's way of saying to Bill, "You don't scare me, stop being such an a**hole."
However, if it works too well and Microsoft says "Cya!", then we have a problem. It's just too early for that. That 2.2 billion in the bank won't go very far.
dh
What an excellent post. I think you've hit on the most fundamental danger. Microsoft's strategy of indirectly forced irrelevancy.
I am totally in agreement with you that for Apple to completely forsake Microsoft at this stage would be a huge mistake. I think it's safe to say that given the recent PR blitz by Microsoft during MacWorld Apple has definitely become a blip on Microsoft's paranoia radar screen. I think that may be just what Apple intended. Basically Steve's way of saying to Bill, "You don't scare me, stop being such an a**hole."
However, if it works too well and Microsoft says "Cya!", then we have a problem. It's just too early for that. That 2.2 billion in the bank won't go very far.
dh
mmmdreg,
I'm agree with you, but there is a missing poit you can add.
By the tiem Apples reaches the 1.5 GHz with the powermacs, PC's would be at 3GHz for sure. No matter what Mz mith you create, Apple is fooling around distracting the attention of the costumers with iCal stuff while the real and basic problem is processor speed. As simple as if you do not have a good product or your main product is not competitive, no matter what you do with your share holders.
I bet that if many people knew about this abism between speed/price most of the production houses would be switching but to the other side.
We are a little in front of the rest of the users.
I'm agree with you, but there is a missing poit you can add.
By the tiem Apples reaches the 1.5 GHz with the powermacs, PC's would be at 3GHz for sure. No matter what Mz mith you create, Apple is fooling around distracting the attention of the costumers with iCal stuff while the real and basic problem is processor speed. As simple as if you do not have a good product or your main product is not competitive, no matter what you do with your share holders.
I bet that if many people knew about this abism between speed/price most of the production houses would be switching but to the other side.
We are a little in front of the rest of the users.
I just have to do this...
Ok, if you think Apple is sounding desperate, look at Dell. They
had a work force of 38,000, and have shafted thousands of them, because they have no other places to cut costs. Apple isn't laying anyone off, and are still coming out with new products, which is more than any other company can say.
We will see the G5, or a new chip by the summer of 2003. And what are you trying to say about pro machines? Are you saying that only people at MacRumors buy pro machines? I don't think so. There are tons of pros who don't visit MacRumors who buy the top of the line equipment.
AAC is meant mainly for pro's right now. That's why AAC encoding is a feature of QT6 Pro. When the licensing eases up, it will probably become as easy to rip songs using the MPEG4 AAC codec as easily as you can MP3's, but right now, you have to pay to be able to use a MPEG4 encoder.
As far as your 'dark days' are concerned... Were you a Mac user before Jobs came back in 1998? What you see now is nothing compared to the condition of Apple before 98. Every article about Apple was dealing with how the company would be bankrupt the next week, and that Apple was doomed. Then Jobs came back, and with innovation, the company was reborn. This was when we were stuck with 33mhz speed bumps, and crappy hardware as well as software.
Oh, and btw, if you can afford a G5 when they come out, then why are you complaining about the price of Jaguar and .Mac?
As for the future of Apple, the next year is going to be very interesting...
Ok, if you think Apple is sounding desperate, look at Dell. They
had a work force of 38,000, and have shafted thousands of them, because they have no other places to cut costs. Apple isn't laying anyone off, and are still coming out with new products, which is more than any other company can say.
We will see the G5, or a new chip by the summer of 2003. And what are you trying to say about pro machines? Are you saying that only people at MacRumors buy pro machines? I don't think so. There are tons of pros who don't visit MacRumors who buy the top of the line equipment.
AAC is meant mainly for pro's right now. That's why AAC encoding is a feature of QT6 Pro. When the licensing eases up, it will probably become as easy to rip songs using the MPEG4 AAC codec as easily as you can MP3's, but right now, you have to pay to be able to use a MPEG4 encoder.
As far as your 'dark days' are concerned... Were you a Mac user before Jobs came back in 1998? What you see now is nothing compared to the condition of Apple before 98. Every article about Apple was dealing with how the company would be bankrupt the next week, and that Apple was doomed. Then Jobs came back, and with innovation, the company was reborn. This was when we were stuck with 33mhz speed bumps, and crappy hardware as well as software.
Oh, and btw, if you can afford a G5 when they come out, then why are you complaining about the price of Jaguar and .Mac?
As for the future of Apple, the next year is going to be very interesting...
isnt apple losing markey share all the time neway? wouldnt they hav to sell more computers that all the PC makers to gain market share back.. i cant really see how! concidering their are more places to buy PCs, and they are a heck of a lot cheaper! u can buy a 2.2Ghz P4 based machine for £600 theses day! if u max out everything on the apple store (ie a dream machine) it sums to over £10,000...