The Future of the iPhone in 5 years. The iPhone will be a Mac.

[christall109]

Hey guys check out this article:

http://shipsoftwareontime.com/2008/04/03/iphone-desktop-unleash-the-leopard-in-your-pocket-299/

The scary thing is that this will be true in some shape or form in the next 5-10 years.

 

[nickspohn]

That will never happen, because:

It's a small device, that is going to get more advanced. Not as advanced as turning the iPhone into a desktop solution, but still in it's same form, that just relies on itself. If someone wants to do something like that, what is the point? They can simply just plug a cord from the phone to a mac and call it a day. Adding like a "port" on a mac would just make it look very odd when it's docked, as well as, how are they going to stick that thing in there, while it's holding itself up, and not scratching half of the glass / back of it?

My $.02

 

[Applejuiced]

Thats dumb, aint happening.

 

[acfusion29]

Thats dumb, aint happening.

Agreed.

It's a PHONE. Apple already has computers.

The people that come up with these things make themselves look really stupid sometimes..

 

[t0mat0]

What the article doesn't immediately say, is that the picture is basically from a patent that Apple had a while back. It's already been discussed here.
Will try and find the link in the forum.
http://gizmodo.com/339918/apple-docking-patent-works-perfectly-with-ultra+slim-macbook
http://www.macnn.com/blogs/?p=480
This was more for docking a laptop. But why dock it *inside* the device, and esentially have wasted internal space when the iPhone isn't attached? If you're talking 5 years time, then why not a UWB wireless protocol, to use the iPhone as a slaved Multitouch haptic feedback device?

The iPhone isn't a CD to be slotted in really. The "desktop" should be a fully functioning screen in of itself. Apple already has the iMac all in one screen come computer. If it isn't an iMac, then it won't run without the iPhone, and if it does have the CPU, OS etc already installed, it's an iMac really. The iPhone already interacts with iMacs, and there might be soon wireless options.
If a call comes through, and it's secret work call, you don't want the ring tone blaring through your speakers. You don't want to wait 10 seconds to get the phone spat out of the internal dock, either.

Could they do this? Well, look at how long it's been since the last Cinema display refresh
If you want portability, i'd imagine that you'd use an iTablet hehe. (which is basically what the product is - a iTablet mounted on a stand, with an internal docking station.)

Anyway
http://gizmodo.com/339918/apple-docking-patent-works-perfectly-with-ultra+slim-macbook
And it's a shame that the authors didn't reference this and give credit to Apple.
http://www.tuaw.com/2008/01/03/apple-patent-suggests-notebook-docking-station/

 

[maxxscholten]

there's no way that the iPhone would have the processing capacity or RAM to run any full programs

 

[MattyMac]

That's crazy...and definitely a possibility in my opinion.

 

[s8film40]

The fictional product shown really isn't the point. Those who step back and take a broad look at what Apple is doing with the iPhone realize what this article is talking about. They realize that the iPhone isn't just another phone but the next evolutional step in the computer industry. I know the first time I saw the iPhone and then later when it was released began using it I was so wowed by it that I didn't realize the potential. I think this is the reason few people see this as the next step for computers. Touch screen interfaces have been around for quite a while now and nobody has really gotten right yet except Apple. Transitioning the user interface to a touch environment requires real original thinking and that is what Apple has done. The really ingeniuose part is that they started with the phone and will probably work up from there making possibly a sub laptop and laptop and then full desktops. By the time the touch based platforms become mainstream the iPhone and Apple's touch based OS will be so integrated in to society and Apple's touch interface will be so developed the competition won't stand a chance. By the time Microsoft realizes the whole computer world is changing they'll be years behind. I think when Steve Jobs talked the iPhone up as such a revolutionary device this is probably what he meant he knows where he's going with this product and it will change everything.

 

[s8film40]

there's no way that the iPhone would have the processing capacity or RAM to run any full programs

Umm about five years ago just putting photo's on a phone was the peak of the technology. If the iPhone can manage to continue the progression at the same rate running full programs would be the least of the iPhones capabilities.

 

[t0mat0]

The fictional product shown really isn't the point. Those who step back and take a broad look at what Apple is doing with the iPhone realize what this article is talking about. They realize that the iPhone isn't just another phone but the next evolutional step in the computer industry. I know the first time I saw the iPhone and then later when it was released began using it I was so wowed by it that I didn't realize the potential. I think this is the reason few people see this as the next step for computers. Touch screen interfaces have been around for quite a while now and nobody has really gotten right yet except Apple. Transitioning the user interface to a touch environment requires real original thinking and that is what Apple has done. The really ingeniuose part is that they started with the phone and will probably work up from there making possibly a sub laptop and laptop and then full desktops. By the time the touch based platforms become mainstream the iPhone and Apple's touch based OS will be so integrated in to society and Apple's touch interface will be so developed the competition won't stand a chance. By the time Microsoft realizes the whole computer world is changing they'll be years behind. I think when Steve Jobs talked the iPhone up as such a revolutionary device this is probably what he meant he knows where he's going with this product and it will change everything.

Yes there is convergence. But what is the iMac and the laptop lines for? or a future iTablet line up? The iPhone currently isn't trying to be the be all and end all. It's more a phone than a MID.

The basic premise is that the iPhone Destop is a dock/ workstation for he iPhone.
It doesn't work without the iPhone plugged in. Or else it's a iMac with a docking station.
If you plug an iPhone in, it uses the iPhone's OS. Which is based on Touch technology. It's totally setup for the iPhone. So either the iMac station is totally set up for non mouse, touch only use, or the iPhone carries 2 OSs.

So where would this workstation be? At your home, the office, Starbucks, library, airport?

If it's at home, why not use a laptop or iMac etc
If at the office - again, you've got space, why not use the stronger more powerful components of the desktop/laptop?
If at Starbucks? You going to be doing a lot of computing there? Why not get a laptop, or just use your iPhone?
If at the airport - You trust public computers??

What does it give you? A larger screen? Then why not have a wireless connection to the screen?

If you use it for calls, you need a BT headset anyway.

The iPhone is currently a phone primarily. I guess it being called "iPhone" is a giveaway. It's a stealth PDA that runs an Apple OS.

You can't use it without your iPhone. Big nono. If you want a desktop substitute, why not a laptop or a tablet?

Will multi-touch come to the desktop in a big way? Yes.

The use of iTunes and Safari as ubiquitous items and channels to use Apple products, with simple interfaces across devices. I'd agree that the iPhone is a sideswipe to the Smart phone market. But not yet to the PC market. It's potential in the future is large. Engelbart would I imagine agree. (And possible point out the length of time it can take to get a complenting/superior UI to market). Apple does well by bring the consumer along and showing them the simplicity and usefulness of their design of their products, to do things well.
They're ahead of the game by going with touch. I just don't think the shown product fits well with Apple's current line ups. Given 5-10 years - why would you need to have a physical internal docking for the iPhone? Given 5-10 years, where's the touch screen? USB? WOuldn't it be WUSB or FW3200?

 

[s8film40]

Well I think the iPhone is just a way of getting the technology out there and getting people used to using the technology. If an iTablet came out today far more people would be interested in it than a year ago since there already familiar with the interface and understand how well it can work. Most people don't buy tablets today because your just using a stylus instead of a mouse, but if the touch environment can be of an advantage it will take off. There are some things that I can actually do much faster and with greater ease on the iPhone and because of this and being an iPhone user I will be far more likely to consider replacing my iMac with a touch iMac. This is what I believe the iPhone is doing is showcasing this technology to people and getting them ready for what is to come.

 

[t0mat0]

Well I think the iPhone is just a way of getting the technology out there and getting people used to using the technology. If an iTablet came out today far more people would be interested in it than a year ago since there already familiar with the interface and understand how well it can work. Most people don't buy tablets today because your just using a stylus instead of a mouse, but if the touch environment can be of an advantage it will take off. There are some things that I can actually do much faster and with greater ease on the iPhone and because of this and being an iPhone user I will be far more likely to consider replacing my iMac with a touch iMac. This is what I believe the iPhone is doing is showcasing this technology to people and getting them ready for what is to come.

Definitely - Apple is very good at getting people accustomed to their style and their way of doing things -their UI is specifically designed to be similar across brands. I think that Apple has done a great deal to get touch technology out there. Microsoft's WM7 is ~2 years behind, and it's not till WM8 that it'll be really designed from the ground up right. Microsoft's audio -> text/command recognition may be a rival in some areas, but not in many places. In the car it's useful - Apple should be rectifying that hopefully with at least voice dialling, decent BT control.

 

[maxxscholten]

Umm about five years ago just putting photo's on a phone was the peak of the technology. If the iPhone can manage to continue the progression at the same rate running full programs would be the least of the iPhones capabilities.

Ok, first off, try 15 years ago... that's when the first camera phone came out (1993); and secondly, that was just a camera phone, I'm sure images were available on a phone long before that.

While things have definitely progressed with processors and computing overall, I really don't believe in the possibility of using an iPhone as a computer in just 5 years. I mean if you look at things like the Mac Mini, sure it's a decent computer and it's small, but at the same time... it's a computer.. not a phone.

 

[kdarling]

Oh, for gosh's sake. Seriously...

Touch won't replace other input in the desktop (or laptop) mainstream, any more than voice input will. I've been using a touchscreen laptop for almost a decade. Do you think I'm using the screen or the keyboard/mouse to make this reply? Good guess: touching the screen would be too painful and slow.

At most, you might see some "home touch computers" like HP recently tried to sell, with the idea that there'll be a touch interface in your kitchen.

Touch sucks for many things. For example, why do you think that the cheap programmable remote controls have only touchscreens, while the high end fancy versions have lots of Real Buttons ? Because it's a heckuva lot easier to change channels, volume, go-back, etc just by feel... on a real button. Perhaps haptic feedback will change this. Perhaps not.

As for docking a handheld to a bigger screen... perhaps. You can already do that with other phones via software. Or you have things like this:

RedFly Companion

Which as others have pointed out as making more sense, uses a Bluetooth or USB connection.

Finally, desktops will always be more powerful than handhelds, at least until we get handhelds with infinite batteries and magically large-while-small displays and input.

 

[s8film40]

Oh, for gosh's sake. Seriously...

Touch won't replace other input in the desktop (or laptop) mainstream, any more than voice input will. I've been using a touchscreen laptop for almost a decade. Do you think I'm using the screen or the keyboard/mouse to make this reply? Good guess: touching the screen would be too painful and slow.

At most, you might see some "home touch computers" like HP recently tried to sell, with the idea that there'll be a touch interface in your kitchen.

Touch sucks for many things. For example, why do you think that the cheap programmable remote controls have only touchscreens, while the high end fancy versions have lots of Real Buttons ? Because it's a heckuva lot easier to change channels, volume, go-back, etc just by feel... on a real button. Perhaps haptic feedback will change this. Perhaps not.

As for docking a handheld to a bigger screen... perhaps. You can already do that with other phones via software. Or you have things like this:

RedFly Companion

Which as others have pointed out as making more sense, uses a Bluetooth or USB connection.

Finally, desktops will always be more powerful than handhelds, at least until we get handhelds with infinite batteries and magically large-while-small displays and input.

You could have made that same argument a few years ago for phones but a lot has changed since then. Like I said before touch interfaces for computers have been around for quite some time but it won't take off and become mainstream until it is done right. All the mouse is is a pointing device it's silly to think that a pointing device removed from the device your pointing at is better than actually pointing by touching what you want. The keyboards may go away a little more slowly on larger desktops since there isn't a need for space in that situation but I would imagine their days are also numbered. I can imagine once you get accustomed using a touch interface it would get to a point where it would just be easier to have a virtual keyboard pop up when you need it.

 

[kdarling]

As I said, I have a touchscreen laptop. A bunch of them, actually. Moreover, I make a living off touch apps and devices, and have done so for almost two decades. Voice apps, too.

For specialty apps, touch is fine. Or if you hardly ever manipulate text or do real work with graphics.

But no way is voice or touch going to replace a mouse or keyboard in mainstream usage. Nor will Minority Report gestures.

Those all look neat in limited examples or in Star Trek films, but in real life they're painfully slow and tiring... and really annoying to other people around you

 

[zap2]

Those all look neat in limited examples or in Star Trek films, but in real life they're painfully slow and tiring... and really annoying to other people around you

For now, yes. Touch screen can be slow. But the GUI w/ mouse might have seemed like that back in the 80s, so only time can tell

 

[t0mat0]

Oh, for gosh's sake. Seriously...

Touch won't replace other input in the desktop (or laptop) mainstream, any more than voice input will. I've been using a touchscreen laptop for almost a decade. Do you think I'm using the screen or the keyboard/mouse to make this reply? Good guess: touching the screen would be too painful and slow.

At most, you might see some "home touch computers" like HP recently tried to sell, with the idea that there'll be a touch interface in your kitchen.

Touch sucks for many things. For example, why do you think that the cheap programmable remote controls have only touchscreens, while the high end fancy versions have lots of Real Buttons ? Because it's a heckuva lot easier to change channels, volume, go-back, etc just by feel... on a real button. Perhaps haptic feedback will change this. Perhaps not.

As for docking a handheld to a bigger screen... perhaps. You can already do that with other phones via software. Or you have things like this:

RedFly Companion

Which as others have pointed out as making more sense, uses a Bluetooth or USB connection.

Finally, desktops will always be more powerful than handhelds, at least until we get handhelds with infinite batteries and magically large-while-small displays and input.

Touch doesn't have to try and replace some input areas- It does other things, such as swipe, pinch, flick, twist very well, all of which are kinda hard to do on a keyboard. Or with a mouse. And touch or typing shouldn't really be used when driving, so voice can be useful if you want to keep two hands on the wheel.

And why does touch have to be the desktop screen? As laptops have shown, it's a good way to have the multi-touch where a normal trackpad is. You could have a multi-touch mousepad if you wanted... (Touch can suck in other areas for sure).

It's all about if it will be useful. Specific applications can use them. If you were doing X-ray crystallography modelling work, you might use a 3 wheel-knob system to manipulate molecules, you could use a slider, you could use a touchpad. The beauty of touch is that it'is not fixed in stone. It's more than just an OLED keyboard - it can be one thing for one user, and be something completely different for the same user on another app.

Touch in a way, in my eye, is just a mid-point to actually going to a glove or similar and depth perception via a videocam. 3D gestures if you will. Again, it wouldn't replace the mouse, the keyboard, the multi-touch pad, but it might be useful in certain areas. After all, we're all wanting the UI to be better than the one it's replacing for however many functions it is.

Docking? As above - Why do it with hardware if you can do it with software and wireless comms as you say.

Desktops will always be more powerful. Yup.

It'll be interesting anyhow. I'm interested to see how Microsoft responds. They're going touch for WM7/8, but also voice in some applications. As for their desktop OS interfaces, who knows?

 

[Michael CM1]

Laptops are just now getting to the point where they can literally replace desktops and now we're making as if the iPhone will do the same in 5 years?

Look, folks. It's a phone. It's a neat phone with an iPod in it. But it doesn't cure cancer. The iPhone will NOT replace computers anytime soon. They are an excellent extension of computers, but what happens when you get home? You hook the iPhone up to a computer so you can sync it up. You take photos to store them on a computer, buy songs on the WiFi store, but import them into the iTunes library.

And as I said the last time the iPhone Desktop photo made it into a thread, people are not going to pay $300 for an iPhone docking station. If the iPhone is ever made to do such a thing, it will be with normal computers using the USB dock or WiFi.

 

[richard.mac]

What the article doesn't immediately say, is that the picture is basically from a patent that Apple had a while back. It's already been discussed here.
Will try and find the link in the forum.
http://gizmodo.com/339918/apple-docking-patent-works-perfectly-with-ultra+slim-macbook
http://www.macnn.com/blogs/?p=480
This was more for docking a laptop. But why dock it *inside* the device, and esentially have wasted internal space when the iPhone isn't attached? If you're talking 5 years time, then why not a UWB wireless protocol, to use the iPhone as a slaved Multitouch haptic feedback device?

The iPhone isn't a CD to be slotted in really. The "desktop" should be a fully functioning screen in of itself. Apple already has the iMac all in one screen come computer. If it isn't an iMac, then it won't run without the iPhone, and if it does have the CPU, OS etc already installed, it's an iMac really. The iPhone already interacts with iMacs, and there might be soon wireless options.
If a call comes through, and it's secret work call, you don't want the ring tone blaring through your speakers. You don't want to wait 10 seconds to get the phone spat out of the internal dock, either.

Could they do this? Well, look at how long it's been since the last Cinema display refresh
If you want portability, i'd imagine that you'd use an iTablet hehe. (which is basically what the product is - a iTablet mounted on a stand, with an internal docking station.)

Anyway
http://gizmodo.com/339918/apple-docking-patent-works-perfectly-with-ultra+slim-macbook
And it's a shame that the authors didn't reference this and give credit to Apple.
http://www.tuaw.com/2008/01/03/apple-patent-suggests-notebook-docking-station/

screw the patent… i just hope Apple releases that aluminium MacBook with the black reflective apple logo on the back.

 

[s8film40]

As I said, I have a touchscreen laptop. A bunch of them, actually. Moreover, I make a living off touch apps and devices, and have done so for almost two decades. Voice apps, too.

For specialty apps, touch is fine. Or if you hardly ever manipulate text or do real work with graphics.

But no way is voice or touch going to replace a mouse or keyboard in mainstream usage. Nor will Minority Report gestures.

Those all look neat in limited examples or in Star Trek films, but in real life they're painfully slow and tiring... and really annoying to other people around you

Yeah I wasn't talking about current incarnations of touch interfaces. I also use a couple of different kind of touch interfaces in my work and would agree that in many cases I would opt for a mouse and keyboard. The problem is when you mention a Mac OS touch interface many people imagine the current os just with touch interface. When Apple developed the iPhone they rethought the whole OS and completely reworked it so that using it with a touch interface was intuitive and efficient. When Apple develops the large scale version of Mac OS Touch (if they haven't already) they'll do the same thing and it will be far more productive in every aspect than the current Mac OS.

 

[isoMorpheus]

All futurists would say yes, because of the law of accelerating return.

 

[Zwhaler]

Cool, but it probably wont be for the iPhone. More for like an ultra ultra portable, and also, Leopard won't still be the latest.

 

[thequicksilver]

Don't forget that the OQO already has a docking option to turn it into a desktop PC. Not a fast one but a desktop PC nonetheless.

Do I think its where the iPhone will be in five years? Not sure. Could it be a compelling product with full wireless USB and whatever new technology has come by then? Hell yes. Interesting to see what happens.

 

[Noeld]

What I can see happening is that your phone will broadcast a license key to all of your media and software so that you can access them from devices wherever you are.

I also don't see why you also won't be able to do the rough equivalent of what is being described. Sure a desktop will always be more powerful, but that doesn't mean that something the size of an iPhone will not be able to handle the bulk of the average user's needs. And if devices like that fulfill most of the average person's computing needs, they will be less inclined to go out and buy a desktop. And if people do that somebody will make something like what was presented.

You can already go up to a desktop and run apps and even surf the internet off of your USB memory stick.