The iPad is the clearest expression of our vision of the future of personal computing

[outlawarth]

In 2015 Tim Cook proclaimed in front of a worldwide audience that "the iPad is the clearest expression of our vision of the future of personal computing".

An argument can be made today that Apple failed in delivering on that vision. The iPad is largely regarded as the iPhone's bigger brother and any real work should be done on a laptop.

Fast forward to 2023 and Tim Cook now claims that the Vison Pro is "the future of computing".

Giving the conflicting messages of what the actual vision of the future of computing is, and the perceived failure of the previous vision, how confident should we be that Apple will deliver this time with Vision Pro?

Secondly what are people's opinions why Apple decided to replace the iPad with Vision Pro as the future of computing?

 

[bkkcanuck8]

iPad is now, not the future...

 

[haruhiko]

I disagree. I do a lot of "real work" on the iPad. Real work isn't always video editing, despite Apple and YouTube wants you to believe, you know.

However, at the same time, in no way I'm wearing that goggles for AR/VR. Maybe not in the coming few years until the product drastically changes to normal looking glasses and without the big battery attachment.

 

[subjonas]

If by “personal computing” he meant personal non-work stuff, I think iPads could have become the future (present) for the mainstream, but in my opinion the event that made sure that didn’t happen was when smartphones got bigger. When they got big enough to do almost all personal computing good enough, except heavy typing, it made the iPad too redundant, and then the phone sort of took that role as ”the future”. But not the, just the main part of it, because the phone being small and bad for heavy typing, people needed to keep their traditional computer around for the times it was needed, but more as a secondary device. It didn’t make sense to replace the laptop with an iPad at that point because the functions were too similar to their large iPhone; a laptop could do more different things. But I think if phones had stayed small, then it’s possible many more people would have turned to the iPad. And since the iPad is laptop size and can be used for heavy typing with a keyboard, many people probably would have abandoned their laptop, and the iPad would have actually become the future. But here we are…

As far as the Vision Pro being the future, it’s hard to tell so soon of course.
By the way, when did Cook say that? I know he said “new era of computing”, which is significantly different because it doesn’t necessarily mean it will replace other devices.
But in my opinion, as it is now, it can theoretically and generally replace an iPad and external monitors. So that means if the only reason you couldn’t replace your desktop/laptop with an iPad was the lack of multiple big monitors, then the Vision Pro could theoretically replace your desktop/laptop.
I don’t see how it could replace a phone for more than the rarest of people though—short battery life, not practical to wear in many situations for many reasons, and no cellular (for now).
And there is of course the high barrier of entry price—it will of course need to come down to bring the VP to the masses.
I say “theoretically replace” because battery life and comfort are probably the big potential issues, which may or may not get better over time, but how serious of issues those are will vary from person to person.

edit-
I don’t know for sure that Apple is crowning the Vision Pro over the iPad as the future (need to see that quote which I couldn’t find with quick Google search), but if they are, it’s probably just because spatial computing literally opens a whole new dimension of possibilities, while potentially not giving up too many advantages of the iPad (but not there yet).

 

[matrix07]

Haven’t you seen Avatar? People in the future still using an iPad.

 

[Bodhitree]

The iPad needs a reworking if it is going to be the future of computing, in my opinion. It isn’t really close enough to being a cloud-centric computer, while a lot of people have to download software and attach a keyboard to do much more than the basics.

To make the iPad really a Pro device in terms of being the future of computing we need to look again at what that means. The iPad currently excels at being a simple computing device, doing all the basics for which you don’t need a Mac.

Vision Pro is a different kind of computing device, with which you can do a lot of things similar to a Mac, but we will have to see how efficient it is.

 

[dumastudetto]

iPad Pro is the future of Mac.

Vision Pro is the future of ambient computing.

 

[Algus]

I imagine the real future of personal computing is a wide variety of tools that suit different workflows and personal preferences

 

[Nhwhazup]

I use my iPad for most everything. But I still have to use the laptop for most anything Excel related. iPad version doesn’t allow me to do half of what I can do on the laptop.

 

[Longplays]

Apple wants to invent the iPhone killer. They see it in the Vision Pro.

Better to invent and control the iPhone replacement than say Meta, Google or Microsoft.

Last year Apple shipped the most number of tablets. More than 2x that of 2nd place Samsung.

In a shrinking tablet market Apple had the only growth.

Top Five Tablet Companies, Worldwide Shipments, Market Share, and Growth, Calendar Year 2022 (Preliminary results, combined company view for the current quarter only, shipments in millions)

Company	2022 Unit Shipments	2022 Market Share	2021 Unit Shipments	2021 Market Share	Year-Over-Year Growth
1. Apple	61.8	38.0%	57.8	34.3%	7.0%
2. Samsung	30.3	18.6%	30.6	18.2%	-0.8%
3. Amazon.com	16.0	9.8%	16.1	9.6%	-0.7%
4. Lenovo	11.6	7.1%	17.7	10.5%	-34.6%
5. Huawei	9.1	5.6%	9.8	5.8%	-7.0%
Others	34.0	20.9%	36.4	21.6%	-6.6%
Total	162.8	100.0%	168.3	100.0%	-3.3%

Source: https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS50239723

 

[iPadified]

Apple wants to invent the iPhone killer. They see it in the Vision Pro.

Better to invent and control the iPhone replacement than say Meta, Google or Microsoft.

Last year Apple shipped the most number of tablets. More than 2x that of 2nd place Samsung.

In a shrinking tablet market Apple had the only growth.

Top Five Tablet Companies, Worldwide Shipments, Market Share, and Growth, Calendar Year 2022 (Preliminary results, combined company view for the current quarter only, shipments in millions)

Company	2022 Unit Shipments	2022 Market Share	2021 Unit Shipments	2021 Market Share	Year-Over-Year Growth
1. Apple	61.8	38.0%	57.8	34.3%	7.0%
2. Samsung	30.3	18.6%	30.6	18.2%	-0.8%
3. Amazon.com	16.0	9.8%	16.1	9.6%	-0.7%
4. Lenovo	11.6	7.1%	17.7	10.5%	-34.6%
5. Huawei	9.1	5.6%	9.8	5.8%	-7.0%
Others	34.0	20.9%	36.4	21.6%	-6.6%
Total	162.8	100.0%	168.3	100.0%	-3.3%

Source: https://www.idc.com/getdoc.jsp?containerId=prUS50239723

61.2 million. For a supposedly failed product according the OP and the opinions of some MR members, it sells rather well. About twice the units shifted compared to Macs.

 

[Longplays]

61.2 million. For a supposedly failed product according the OP and the opinions of some MR members, it sells rather well. About twice the units shifted compared to Macs.

Maybe in their neighborhood/community/town it failed that's why I fall back on market research on worldwide shipping numbers to determine a fail or a win.

It is like how many on MR and elsewhere lambast the GPU performance of the Ultra chips then compare it to desktop dGPUs of gaming PCs and workstations.

Many do not realize that these are shrinking YoY for the past decades largely because laptops became "good enough" and APUs and SoCs are slowly taking over.

Sure... SoC & APUs will likely never hit the die size utility of shaders because of how it made so will likely rank #1 but being #2 is what almost all consumers want.

So if your use case becomes ~1% that require a dedicated CPU, GPU, RAM, SSD, etc vs ~99% that are SoC, APU and SiP that is always closing the gap in raw performance faster than dedicated parts can improve then at a certain point they'll intersect and get left behind by sheer performance projections.

Heck any 2012 Mac 32nm/22nm gets left behind by a 2023 iPhone 3nm.

 

[Piggie]

The vision! is great but we are so many years away from this being a reality it's not even worth contemplating.
Can you imagine putting on the headset to quickly do/check something?
Or to show your friend something you'd like to share with them?
Yes there is a future, but it's way way off.
Of course, you need to start somewhere, but this is sounding a bit like The Wright Brothers have just invented the 1st plane and we are already talking about flying around the world for our summer holidays aboard one.

 

[kkee]

but this is sounding a bit like The Wright Brothers have just invented the 1st plane and we are already talking about flying around the world for our summer holidays aboard one.

You think that didn't happen? I am sure some housewives were talking about flying around the world for summer holidays aboard. Dreams are what moves technology forwards

 

[bkkcanuck8]

The vision! is great but we are so many years away from this being a reality it's not even worth contemplating.
Can you imagine putting on the headset to quickly do/check something?
Or to show your friend something you'd like to share with them?
Yes there is a future, but it's way way off.
Of course, you need to start somewhere, but this is sounding a bit like The Wright Brothers have just invented the 1st plane and we are already talking about flying around the world for our summer holidays aboard one.

Things move much quicker - especially when it is not more individual inventors but a corporation looking to monetize it... I suspect that if things worked back then like now... One company would invent flying, and Ford would be slapping wings to the Model-T and saying he is not worried about competition... the Model-T is proven technology and will do all things that the new plane will - plus drive as well.

 

[Wokis]

Tim says whatever he thinks will sell the most units then and there.

I don't know who serves as the product visionary at Apple anymore, actually. I guess it's some form of committee.

 

[subjonas]

The vision! is great but we are so many years away from this being a reality it's not even worth contemplating.
Can you imagine putting on the headset to quickly do/check something?
Or to show your friend something you'd like to share with them?
Yes there is a future, but it's way way off.
Of course, you need to start somewhere, but this is sounding a bit like The Wright Brothers have just invented the 1st plane and we are already talking about flying around the world for our summer holidays aboard one.

Yeah some people‘s expectations are too high. Some even expect the VP to replace their phone. I suppose that’s possible if they use their phone like most people use a tablet, but for the mainstream that’s definitely not happening. Gotta wait (a long time) for Apple Glasses for that.

I think for many the VP could replace their iPad though. Yeah VP isn’t practical for the quick check stuff, but a lot of that functionality overlaps with a phone. I think the bigger obstacles/questions are battery life, and obviously price, and probably comfort of wearing for long periods.

 

[bkkcanuck8]

Yeah some people‘s expectations are too high. Some even expect the VP to replace their phone. I suppose that’s possible if they use their phone like most people use a tablet, but for the mainstream that’s definitely not happening. Gotta wait (a long time) for Apple Glasses for that.

I think for many the VP could replace their iPad though. Yeah VP isn’t practical for the quick check stuff, but a lot of that functionality overlaps with a phone. I think the bigger obstacles/questions are battery life, and obviously price, and probably comfort of wearing for long periods.

Everything I have heard (and all I can see is possible) is that the glasses are an iPhone accessory... not stand alone. I don't think you want the high power 5G/6G antenna permanently right on your head... lower power to phone - probably fine though.

 

[subjonas]

Everything I have heard (and all I can see is possible) is that the glasses are an iPhone accessory... not stand alone. I don't think you want the high power 5G/6G antenna permanently right on your head... lower power to phone - probably fine though.

Right, it would probably not be standalone for any foreseeable future. Hopefully it would just allow for much smaller phones.