iPad The lost years of iPads

[nzxred]

There were no new models released of some iPads for 4-5 years back then. Was reading on Wikipedia and noticed the confusion of several major iPad product lines.

The iPad 4th generation was released back in year 2012, and then its successor, the 5th generation iPad, was released almost five years later in 2017, the time interval was 5 years. The previous models had average yearly update cycle.

The iPad Mini 4 was released in 2015, and the iPad Mini 5 arrived four years later in 2019. with a gap of 4 years. Previously, it was updated every year.

The iPad Air 2 was released in 2014, and the iPad Air 3 was updated almost 5 years later in 2019, with an interval of 5 years. Previously, it was updated every year also.

It is very unusual for Apple to do so.

What was Apple thinking and doing during that time?


Here are some of my hypotheses:

1. Waiting for other Vendors to catch up, in case of being accused for monopoly of tablet market.
2. Current iPad is overpowered, slow down the update cycle.
3. Concentrating on Apple Watch? (The 1st generation Watch was released in 2015).
4. Apple was reconsidering whether to expand or shrink the iPad lineups.
5. Developing the iPad Pro? (The first-generation iPad Pro was released in 2015).
6. Working on the first Dual- flagship large screen iPhone 6 and 6 Plus series. (Both units were introduced in 2014).
7. Putting all effort into Apple Silicon, so they can change the world again in the near future. (Apple announced Mac transition to Apple silicon at 2020 WWDC).
8. Testing and developing its first generation AirPods? (The original AirPods was released in 2016).
9. Polishing the complete redesigned MacBook Pro with that Touch Bar. (MacBook Pro Touch Bar was unveiled in 2016).
10. All teams were working on the next revolutionary spatial computer Apple Vision Pro. So that Apple can change the world once again (The first generation of Vision Pro was revealed in 2023, and expected to be available in 2024 in some countries).

What are your thoughts?

 

[Slix]

I've thought about this a bit, and to me, it seems like during the 2015-2019 era, Apple was trying to convince people that the iPad Pro was the "replacement" for the Mac, which ended up leading to a bad MacBook lineup (Touch Bar, butterfly keyboards, USB-C only) and iPads being prioritized. I think what happened with these models getting so old before being updated is a combination of everything you listed above and the fact that by 2017 or so, most iPads were powerful enough for most things, so updating the chips every year wasn't as noticeable of an improvement compared to prior years.

I'm glad Apple seems to have found its way again in regards to the usefulness of both iPads and Macs.

 

[apostolosdt]

Some days I put Mac to sleep mode and do the usual daily work on the iPad Mini 5th gen. I believe, in agreement with the comments above, that iPads have evolved into very capable machines.

 

[ericwn]

Thank you for sharing your wildest theories. I appreciate a good effort when I see one.

 

[AJB1971]

I don't think there was a grand plan to end up where we are now. It was a new product category and Apple was trying out different things. I would put naming conventions aside and concentrate on the markets that they were targeting.

For example, the iPad 2 became the first budget device when the 3rd generation iPad launched, but the Mini would later take on that role. Presumably, Apple then felt that this market would be better served by a larger device, and the 5th generation iPad was launched.

It’s a similar thing with the Pro models. The market clearly reacted well to these new devices and Apple was able to increase prices significantly between the Pro 9.7 and its successors. That, and the focus on the price-sensitive education market with the base iPads, created a gap in the range that led to the reintroduction of the Air.

 

[Stoianski]

Seems to me something between your #4 and #5. Until 2012 there was only one iPad type, then they started introducing Air, Pro and Mini, first a bit more alternating them (and thus the gap) and later on updating all of them more regularly.

 

[rui no onna]

I don't think there was a grand plan to end up where we are now. It was a new product category and Apple was trying out different things. I would put naming conventions aside and concentrate on the markets that they were targeting.

For example, the iPad 2 became the first budget device when the 3rd generation iPad launched, but the Mini would later take on that role. Presumably, Apple then felt that this market would be better served by a larger device, and the 5th generation iPad was launched.

It’s a similar thing with the Pro models. The market clearly reacted well to these new devices and Apple was able to increase prices significantly between the Pro 9.7 and its successors. That, and the focus on the price-sensitive education market with the base iPads, created a gap in the range that led to the reintroduction of the Air.

Agreed.

The iPad mini used to be the budget iPad but with the release of larger phones, sales of smaller tablets went down a lot.

I expect the regular “iPad” was brought back to cater to that lower price segment. Indeed, it’s Apple’s bestselling iPad model.

If it were up to Apple, all of us would be buying $1000+ iPad Pros. Alas, most folks aren’t willing to pay that much for an iPad, hence the current models at different price segments.

 

[Digitalguy]

Some very good points added in the most recent comments.

Here is how it actually went, also based on some interviews with Apple employees:

After the iPad 4, which corrected the mistakes of the "New iPad", that is the Retina iPad 3, and which came with a smaller brother, the mini, at a more budget price, the Air came and was actually meant to replace the the base iPad and came at the same $500 price.
Meanwhile the iPad 2 and the mini 1 were being sold as more budget models.
Actually with the Air 1 came the mini 2, which this time had the same specs as the air 1 and not previous gen specs as the mini 1, and its price increased from 329 to 399. The iPad 2 was still sold as the budget one.

Then with the air 2 came the mini 3 which had the same specs as the mini 2 plus Touch ID but the mini 2 remained on sale as the budget model at a cheaper price.

Then the next year the iPad pro arrived, together with the mini 4 (which had previous gen air 2 specs and actually even less), but no more air.
And here is where things started becoming confused.

Apple was unclear whether to make an air 3 or a mini pro. So they ended up with a sort of middle ground, a mini pro, called the 9.7 pro, which was somewhere in between the pro and the air, but closer to the pro.
Same body as the air 2, same RAM as the air, but same chip as the pro (slightly downclocked). Many of the features of the pro, but also some specs of the air (no USB 3.0, only 2.0, no fast charging)
And the price was also not really a pro but more than an air, at $599.

So at that point the air and the mini were put on hold, with no clear idea whether to keet them in the line long term or not. They kept only the 128GB mini 4 at 399, which served as the budget iPad.
But they also decided to go full in pro with the mid size 2nd gen and make a budget iPad to appeal to more people at $329. So they resuscitated the original iPad as the the new budget one (using the air 1 body, but the generation number from the previous iPad, the 4th, so it became the iPad 5th gen).
At that point in 2017 the line was: 12.9 at close to $100, 10.5 at $749, mini 4 at $399 and 5th at $329.
They were considering discontinuing the iPad mini as it was no longer the budget model, but one of the interviews said that they realized that the mini was still being bought in similar quantities, so people wanted a mini iPad not just a budget one.
And since in 2018 they increase the price of the mid-sized pro even more to $799 they decided to fill the price gap and resuscitate the air as the new $500 model with the air 3 and make a new mini with the same specs as the air at $399.

From then one the line kind of stabilized with the budget model at 329 being released every year, the air and the mini roughly every 2 years and the pro every 18 months (with some rare exceptions).
More recently the line got a bit less clear, with the air and mini losing spec parity and the iPad 10 arriving at $450 but not replacing the 9.

 

[Torty]

It’s a bit confusing because of the naming. The first iPads were the premium ones. Then there was the air becoming premium. Then there was the pro degrading the air to mid range and the standard iPad came back to life as entry level.

 

[BanjoDudeAhoy]

Some days I put Mac to sleep mode and do the usual daily work on the iPad Mini 5th gen. I believe, in agreement with the comments above, that iPads have evolved into very capable machines.

I agree. In fact, I find myself doing a lot of my personal stuff on my iPads. Often it's just more comfortable to use an iPad than a MacBook or desktop Mac for me.

My first iPad was the 3rd gen Air which I bought in 2020 and which (despite having had a Surface, Asus eepad and others) was the first tablet that actually lived up to the "capable portable computer" idea I'd had in my head for close to 10 years at that point.

 

[sunapple]

There were iPads released every year since 2010. Just a lot of overlap between models. Makes more sense looking at the complete list. Life span is also pretty long which may contribute.

 

[rui no onna]

Then the next year the iPad pro arrived, together with the mini 4 (which had previous gen air 2 specs and actually even less), but no more air.
And here is where things started becoming confused.

No new Air but I remember they reduced the price of the Air 2 to $399 when the Pro 9.7 was released so it was actually being sold at the same price as the mini 4 for a time. Iirc, they kept the mini 2 as the budget model back then.

 

[Digitalguy]

No new Air but I remember they reduced the price of the Air 2 to $399 when the Pro 9.7 was released so it was actually being sold at the same price as the mini 4 for a time. Iirc, they kept the mini 2 as the budget model back then.

Oh I missed the air 2 price reduction, nice catch... Was it the base storage? Crazy to think that the air 2 was the same price as the somewhat inferior mini 4 before they removed the lower storage models from the line (I had the air 2 16GB cellular and still have the mini 4 64GB wifi with an almost dead battery). I got the mini 2 discounted in 2014, when the mini 3 came out, as it can be seen above they removed the mini 3 and left the mini 2 (at the discounted price) just like they did with the iPad 2 and 3.

 

[rui no onna]

Oh I missed the air 2 price reduction, nice catch... Was it the base storage? Crazy to think that the air 2 was the same price as the somewhat inferior mini 4 before they removed the lower storage models from the line (I had the air 2 16GB cellular and still have the mini 4 64GB wifi with an almost dead battery). I got the mini 2 discounted in 2014, when the mini 3 came out, as it can be seen above they removed the mini 3 and left the mini 2 (at the discounted price) just like they did with the iPad 2 and 3.

The Air 2 16GB and mini 4 16GB were both $399. Base iPad Pro 9.7 was 32GB $599.

I’m guessing the fully laminated 7.9” 2048x1536 display was just as expensive as the 9.7” 2048x1536 display. Even when Apple kept the mini 4, the price remained at $399 although they did increase storage to 128GB. The price difference between 32GB and 128GB NAND flash was already peanuts at the time.

Iirc, mini 2 still had the non-laminated display which is probably why Apple could reduce the price on that but not the mini 4.

 

[MacProFCP]

There were no new models released of some iPads for 4-5 years back then. Was reading on Wikipedia and noticed the confusion of several major iPad product lines.

The iPad 4th generation was released back in year 2012, and then its successor, the 5th generation iPad, was released almost five years later in 2017, the time interval was 5 years. The previous models had average yearly update cycle.

The iPad Mini 4 was released in 2015, and the iPad Mini 5 arrived four years later in 2019. with a gap of 4 years. Previously, it was updated every year.

The iPad Air 2 was released in 2014, and the iPad Air 3 was updated almost 5 years later in 2019, with an interval of 5 years. Previously, it was updated every year also.

It is very unusual for Apple to do so.

What was Apple thinking and doing during that time?


Here are some of my hypotheses:

1. Waiting for other Vendors to catch up, in case of being accused for monopoly of tablet market.
2. Current iPad is overpowered, slow down the update cycle.
3. Concentrating on Apple Watch? (The 1st generation Watch was released in 2015).
4. Apple was reconsidering whether to expand or shrink the iPad lineups.
5. Developing the iPad Pro? (The first-generation iPad Pro was released in 2015).
6. Working on the first Dual- flagship large screen iPhone 6 and 6 Plus series. (Both units were introduced in 2014).
7. Putting all effort into Apple Silicon, so they can change the world again in the near future. (Apple announced Mac transition to Apple silicon at 2020 WWDC).
8. Testing and developing its first generation AirPods? (The original AirPods was released in 2016).
9. Polishing the complete redesigned MacBook Pro with that Touch Bar. (MacBook Pro Touch Bar was unveiled in 2016).
10. All teams were working on the next revolutionary spatial computer Apple Vision Pro. So that Apple can change the world once again (The first generation of Vision Pro was revealed in 2023, and expected to be available in 2024 in some countries).

What are your thoughts?

View attachment 2225069

Apple had several models of iPads and, in my opinion, too many models. As such, they didn’t want to cannibalize sales from one to another.

This actually makes sense as people rarely update their iPads on an annual basis. So Apple updated some iPad every year or two with each model getting infrequent updates.

We use 11 iPads for AV (controlling hardware through Apps) and only update them every 3-5 years.

 

[Digitalguy]

The Air 2 16GB and mini 4 16GB were both $399. Base iPad Pro 9.7 was 32GB $599.

I’m guessing the fully laminated 7.9” 2048x1536 display was just as expensive as the 9.7” 2048x1536 display. Even when Apple kept the mini 4, the price remained at $399 although they did increase storage to 128GB. The price difference between 32GB and 128GB NAND flash was already peanuts at the time.

Iirc, mini 2 still had the non-laminated display which is probably why Apple could reduce the price on that but not the mini 4.

Great points. By the way I remember comparing the 9.7" screen of the air 2 and that of the 9.7 pro and the improvement was noticeable, especially in terms of less reflectivity

 

[Saturn007]

The OP spotting 5 year gaps was a worthwhile gem.

Sunapple's list shows Apple wasn't resting, but retularly issuing new models. Digitalguy's report on the interviews with Apple employees fills in well what was going on.

I do think we can categorically rule out one possibile explanation.

Waiting for other Vendors to catch up, in case of being accused for monopoly of tablet market.

Given all the models, the diversification, and vast improvements, we can be pretty sure that any worry about being accused of a monopoly wasn't a factor.

Especially as other manufacturers became quite active in the tablet space over the years and took up market share.

 

[AJB1971]

It’s worth looking at the timeline on Wikipedia.

One oddity worth mentioning is that the 4th gen iPad was actually reintroduced for a short period of time when the iPad 2 was finally discontinued. It ran alongside the Air and was discontinued for a second time when the Air 2 launched.

It’s also worth noting that there were three versions of the Mini on sale at one time: the 1st gen at $249, 2nd gen at $299, and the 3rd gen at $399. Apple presumably wanted to keep the 1st gen around to hit the lowest possible price point.

After that, the Mini 2 became the budget model at $269 until the release of the 5th gen iPad at $329.

 

[Digitalguy]

It’s worth looking at the timeline on Wikipedia.
View attachment 2225814

One oddity worth mentioning is that the 4th gen iPad was actually reintroduced for a short period of time when the iPad 2 was finally discontinued. It ran alongside the Air and was discontinued for a second time when the Air 2 launched.

It’s also worth noting that there were three versions of the Mini on sale at one time: the 1st gen at $249, 2nd gen at $299, and the 3rd gen at $399. Apple presumably wanted to keep the 1st gen around to hit the lowest possible price point.

After that, the Mini 2 became the budget model at $269 until the release of the 5th gen iPad at $329.

wow, didn't realize the mini 1 was still on sale, maybe not in all 3rd party stores. I got my mini 2 at $269 in Autumn 2014 after the mini 3 came out, but maybe it was a special sale. Don't remember seeing the mini 1 then

 

[AJB1971]

wow, didn't realize the mini 1 was still on sale, maybe not in all 3rd party stores. I got my mini 2 at $269 in Autumn 2014 after the mini 3 came out, but maybe it was a special sale. Don't remember seeing the mini 1 then

This was from the October 2014 event when the 3rd gen Mini and Air 2 were announced-

 

[Digitalguy]

This was from the October 2014 event when the 3rd gen Mini and Air 2 were announced-
View attachment 2225865

nice, mine must have been a sale, I remember only the base white model was sold at that price

 

[gpat]

I can only say that about half of iPad releases were really underwhelming compared to their better half.
Let's just consider the main product line.

iPad 1 was given to me as a gift when it was new, it was really cool for the time but more of a proof of concept than anything else. Aged horribly due to the deliberate lack of RAM.

iPad 2 was the obvious fix after the early adopters were milked. Good release, one of the longest lived ever.

iPad 3, again, proof of concept for the Retina screen. Aged horribly due to lack of processing power.

iPad 4, again, obvious fix after only 6 months, also first with Lightning connector.

iPad Air 1, good redesign but held back by the choice of keeping only 1 GB of RAM.

iPad Air 2, guess what, obvious fix for that flaw. As a result, longest life ever for an iPad.

iPad 5, came 30 months after the Air 2, hardly any better, only a little cheaper to sell and to make. Apple decided that $499 weren't enough anymore and wanted to sell you a Pro.

iPad 6, oh wait, now you can use an Apple Pencil even if you're a cheapskate.

iPad 7, literally the same as the 6. Now you can attach the Smart Keyboard but same SoC after 18 months, laughable.

iPad 8, now you are allowed to get your speedbump. Be grateful!

It's not much different for the Pro line.

2015 Pro 12.9" was brilliant and a proper show of effort from Apple.

2016 Pro 9.7" was held back by lack of RAM, too close to the regular line but overpriced.

2017 Pro 10.5" fixed that (of course).

2017 Pro 12.9", not a compelling release and 18 months passed by.

2018 Pro 11" and 12.9", proper revolution, costly but they still hold their own today.

2020 Pro 11" and 12.9", lukewarm refresh.

2021 Pro 11" and 12.9", now you can get an M1. Too bad, 2020 buyers!

2022 Pro 11" and 12.9", M2, lukewarm refresh.

 

[koelsh]

I've thought about this a bit, and to me, it seems like during the 2015-2019 era, Apple was trying to convince people that the iPad Pro was the "replacement" for the Mac, which ended up leading to a bad MacBook lineup (Touch Bar, butterfly keyboards, USB-C only) and iPads being prioritized. I think what happened with these models getting so old before being updated is a combination of everything you listed above and the fact that by 2017 or so, most iPads were powerful enough for most things, so updating the chips every year wasn't as noticeable of an improvement compared to prior years.

I'm glad Apple seems to have found its way again in regards to the usefulness of both iPads and Macs.

Feels like from 2014 through maybe 2019 Apple was at large distracted by building and then settling into Apple Campus 2. This combined with Johnny Ive’s progressive checking out of the company certainly didn’t help.

I agree during that period Apple either genuinely was or did little/nothing to dispel the notion they were attempting to replace the Mac with iPad. Since they haven’t changed their tone on iPad since including the M-series chips in them I’ve more or less instead given up on iPad.

My iPad Pro 2021 with M1 which is straight up 2X+ as powerful as my 2018 MBP but can do maybe 1/10 as much. And maybe Apple’s grand plan at one time was to replace the Mac with iPad but then suddenly realized just how much work it was going to take and shifted gears.