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The Skylake rMB - likelihoods, conjecture, myths

Jobsian

Jobsian

macrumors 6502a
Original poster
Jul 30, 2009
853
98
Just thinking out loud here.

The new rMB launch hasn't been that smooth. Imo it's beautifully designed and has a gorgeous display. But we have delays, especially the 1.3GHz version and USB-C adapters, stuttering GUI (seemingly largely thanks to mandatory bloated Yosemite, which I won't touch yet), divisive keyboard and as others have mentioned here, throttling which makes some pretty basic programs lag.

And all this in the background of a Skylake release that Intel still insists is on target for H2 2015 (Wiki says 15 August 2015). I can't imagine Apple giving such a head start to other notebook manufacturers for Skylake. Someone here posted a video of the GUI stutter on his rMB and I thought my mind was set and I'll hold out for Skylake.

However, what benefits would a Skylake rMB realistically offer?

  • It'll be a "tock" upgrade, ie major architectural change, though still 14nm process. Supposedly it'll offer major CPU and GPU improvements, but I can't find numbers. Regardless, most recent iterations of Intel processors touted major improvements, the reality usually disappointing. Their focus these days seems to be primarily power consumption. I just can't imagine there being too significant an upgrade, except maybe for its integrated graphics.

  • There's a lot of talk of LPDDR4, but if you look at the Wiki entry for Skylake, the Y-variant (4W) only supports LPDDR3. The minimum TDP variant that supports DDR4 is 35W.

  • Wireless charging - will the current design of the rMB be able to accommodate Rezence components (wireless charging standard)? I don't know for certain, but google images of Rezence seems to show demos of it on mobile phones, so maybe.

  • Might we see the doubled PCI-e lanes found in other 2015 Apple notebook models? I couldn't find any answers here.

  • Thunderbolt 3.0. Now this could be a bit significant, offering 40 Gbit/s, enough to drive 2 external 4K or 1 external 5K display
  • Battery - again big promises, I can't refute them, but I can't help feeling deja vu. Besides, the rMB's battery is good enough for me

Reading through that, overall not that much to offer over the current rMB. Maybe I'll just go for the 1.3 model now and wait for Cannonlake and a redesign...
 
I suspect gen 2 will offer up an HD FaceTime camera, second USB-c port and hopefully a GPs update to HD6000-class.

Wireless charging may negate the need for a second port but I suspect the laptop design would need a plastic panel to get the electromagnetic waves inside to the battery - would Apple be willing to make that compromise? I would like to see a 14 inch version too but that may have to wait for the redesign in gen 3. If Intel can get the entry level performance up to the current MBA levels it'll be a winner!
 
theSeb said:
I suspect it may have TB3
Click to expand...

I sincerely doubt it'll have TB3. How are they going to fit the Port in there:
150107090052-macbook-air-usb-620xa.png


I'd say best hope would be updated graphics, a little faster, and maybe a second USB-C port. (if there's room maybe on the other side near the headphone jack?).

There's also gonna be a *wait* for this, IMHO. Even if Skylake-Y chips are released in 2H15 (still not confirmed), Apple won't RUSH to put them into a still-new-seeming Retina MacBook.

I'd say Early 2016 is the earliest the Rev B. I know people talk about the original Macbook Air getting more ports, etc... but people don't realize that took almost 3 years. MacBook Air with "swing" door was January 2008 and the current "wedge" form factor came out in October 2010. It's not like Rev B is gonna happen over the summer or something. ;).
 
I'm flip flopping between buying one now or waiting until the next revision.

This is what I'm thinking:
The Macbook is gorgeous, lightweight and quiet. I'm buying a retina iMac that'll be my main machine so I don't need (much) power in what would then be a secondary machine. BUT, I'm not liking the reports of lagging and poor performance. I'm okay with it not being a powerhouse, but if the Macbook struggles already, what about a couple-three-four years down the road? Will it be a pain in the ass to use? At the same time others are reporting super performance... I guess it's somewhere in between.

So, the main option is to wait for the Skylake revision. But how much better will Skylake be? Recent rumors have it, not much http://www.pcgamer.com/intel-skylake-core-i5-and-core-i7-details-leaked/ At the same time we keep hearing that Skylake is supposed to be a huge update. Again, probably somewhere in between.

I'm most likely going to wait a couple of months and see if we get some more information on the Skylake performance. The thing I fear is buying the Macbook now only to see rev. B comes out this fall and rectify all the problematic issues. That would sting somewhat. :rolleyes:
 
dubydoo said:
but if the Macbook struggles already, what about a couple-three-four years down the road? Will it be a pain in the ass to use?
Click to expand...


I understand the dilemma but why would the MBr's performance decline as the model progresses through future iterations? Has this happened with any Apple products in the past?
 
fyrefly said:
I sincerely doubt it'll have TB3. How are they going to fit the Port in there:
Click to expand...

TB3 brings a new connector with a height of just 3mm, so it will be compatible with the new MacBook
Thunderbolt-3.jpg


Sylake will bring many improvements over Broadwell, especially in the iGPU`s, Apple will move to the new platform as soon as is practicable. Skylake is on track, Broadwell will be short-lived simple as that.

Q-6
 
tecnho said:
I understand the dilemma but why would the MBr's performance decline as the model progresses through future iterations? Has this happened with any Apple products in the past?
Click to expand...

As software (including the OS) develops it has a tendency to become more demanding. But, as we've been seeing a slowing down of performance gains between hardware iterations the last few years, it might be the case that the Macbook can keep up the fight for longer (since software developers can't expect huge jumps each generation and therefore have to account for that when introducing new features).

Ah, I don't know what to do! First world problems. :p
 
dubydoo said:
As software (including the OS) develops it has a tendency to become more demanding. But, as we've been seeing a slowing down of performance gains between hardware iterations the last few years, it might be the case that the Macbook can keep up the fight for longer (since software developers can't expect huge jumps each generation and therefore have to account for that when introducing new features).



Ah, I don't know what to do! First world problems. :p
Click to expand...


I gotcha, that makes sense. For some reason I thought you were implying that if this MBr (allegedly) has any performance difficulties that could indicate exponential performance issues with the Skylake/future processor MBr models as well.
 
theSeb said:
TB3 ports are much thinner than TB2, mentioned by Queen6. They will fit.
Click to expand...

johngwheeler said:
So all you need to add in your bag of other adapters is an extra TB2 to TB3 adpator ;)
Click to expand...

Yeah, I don't really see a plus-side to a TB3 connector. It'll be another set of adaptors that will be hard to find and won't work with most things at launch. Just like USB-C is now! :p (even though I love my rMB).

----------
Queen6 said:
TB3 brings a new connector with a height of just 3mm, so it will be compatible with the new MacBook.

Sylake will bring many improvements over Broadwell, especially in the iGPU`s, Apple will move to the new platform as soon as is practicable. Skylake is on track, Broadwell will be short-lived simple as that.
Click to expand...

Interesting. I didn't know that part (re: Connector). Second question - (based on your helpful diagram) - is there room for a Thunderbolt controller Chip on the TINY MacBook Logic Board?

Re: Broadwell being short-lived - I agree, compared to other chips. But I seriously don't think there'll be a Skylake MacBook revision in Fall 2015. Who knows if the chips will even be released by then? (I also say this selfishly 'cause I have a rMB and I don't want it to be outdated by the fall! ;) ).
 
Last edited:
fyrefly said:
Re: Broadwell being short-lived - I agree, compared to other chips. But I seriously don't think there'll be a Skylake MacBook revision in Fall 2015. Who knows if the chips will even be released? (I also say this selfishly 'cause I have a rMB and I don't want it to be outdated by the fall! ;) ).
Click to expand...

I think it is almost certain that Skylake will be officially launched in the August Intel conference. What we don't know is:

1) The order which each "family" of chips will be released (i.e. 4W, 15W, 25W, 35W, 45W, 65W & 95W TDPs) - Skylake-Y (4W) is what the rMP will need.

2) Exactly how long Intel will take to ramp up production - I expect a lot of demand for Skylake-Y in the tablet, mini-PC, and ultraportable categories.

3) How long Apple will take to upgrade the CPU in the rMB after general availability.

I would like to see a Skylake rMP before the end of the year, but suspect it will be in Q1 of 2016.

If other vendors (including MS with their Surface) put in Skylake early, then I can see Apple speeding up a bit.
 
dubydoo said:
I'm flip flopping between buying one now or waiting until the next revision.

This is what I'm thinking:
The Macbook is gorgeous, lightweight and quiet. I'm buying a retina iMac that'll be my main machine so I don't need (much) power in what would then be a secondary machine. BUT, I'm not liking the reports of lagging and poor performance. I'm okay with it not being a powerhouse, but if the Macbook struggles already, what about a couple-three-four years down the road? Will it be a pain in the ass to use? At the same time others are reporting super performance... I guess it's somewhere in between.

So, the main option is to wait for the Skylake revision. But how much better will Skylake be? Recent rumors have it, not much http://www.pcgamer.com/intel-skylake-core-i5-and-core-i7-details-leaked/ At the same time we keep hearing that Skylake is supposed to be a huge update. Again, probably somewhere in between.

I'm most likely going to wait a couple of months and see if we get some more information on the Skylake performance. The thing I fear is buying the Macbook now only to see rev. B comes out this fall and rectify all the problematic issues. That would sting somewhat. :rolleyes:
Click to expand...

The lagging reports (or I guess I mean the reports of lag...or maybe I was right the first time ;) ) come from people who find all of their retina laptops lagging. If you've used another retina Mac laptop, I really don't think you'll see any differences.

The lower power, slow stuff is just plain horsespit. Please see this thread.

I'm not saying you should run out and buy one, but don't be put off by the...well, frankly, the liars and haters.

----------
johngwheeler said:
I think it is almost certain that Skylake will be officially launched in the August Intel conference. What we don't know is:

1) The order which each "family" of chips will be released (i.e. 4W, 15W, 25W, 35W, 45W, 65W & 95W TDPs) - Skylake-Y (4W) is what the rMP will need.

2) Exactly how long Intel will take to ramp up production - I expect a lot of demand for Skylake-Y in the tablet, mini-PC, and ultraportable categories.

3) How long Apple will take to upgrade the CPU in the rMB after general availability.

I would like to see a Skylake rMP before the end of the year, but suspect it will be in Q1 of 2016.

If other vendors (including MS with their Surface) put in Skylake early, then I can see Apple speeding up a bit.
Click to expand...

Good summary...which kind of puts a spotlight on the timing variables here! :eek:
 
fyrefly said:
I sincerely doubt it'll have TB3. How are they going to fit the Port in there:
Image

I'd say best hope would be updated graphics, a little faster, and maybe a second USB-C port. (if there's room maybe on the other side near the headphone jack?).

There's also gonna be a *wait* for this, IMHO. Even if Skylake-Y chips are released in 2H15 (still not confirmed), Apple won't RUSH to put them into a still-new-seeming Retina MacBook.

I'd say Early 2016 is the earliest the Rev B. I know people talk about the original Macbook Air getting more ports, etc... but people don't realize that took almost 3 years. MacBook Air with "swing" door was January 2008 and the current "wedge" form factor came out in October 2010. It's not like Rev B is gonna happen over the summer or something. ;).
Click to expand...

Not sure of the exact dimensions, but Thunderbolt 3 is smaller than 1/2. So it might fit, but I feel like they are going to leave that for a Retina Pro redesign. Imagine a Retina Pro with a Thunderbolt 3 and USB C on each side? :eek:

As for next year's rMB, it will just perform much better, doubt we see any physical changes. Hopefully the USB C port is Gen 2 instead of Gen 1 as it is now.
 
johngwheeler said:
I think it is almost certain that Skylake will be officially launched in the August Intel conference. What we don't know is:

1) The order which each "family" of chips will be released (i.e. 4W, 15W, 25W, 35W, 45W, 65W & 95W TDPs) - Skylake-Y (4W) is what the rMP will need.

2) Exactly how long Intel will take to ramp up production - I expect a lot of demand for Skylake-Y in the tablet, mini-PC, and ultraportable categories.

3) How long Apple will take to upgrade the CPU in the rMB after general availability.

I would like to see a Skylake rMP before the end of the year, but suspect it will be in Q1 of 2016.

If other vendors (including MS with their Surface) put in Skylake early, then I can see Apple speeding up a bit.
Click to expand...

I agree with your rationale on this, and likewise think we're looking at Q1 of 2016 for the next rev of the rMB. And as others have said, its seems like the last few Intel releases have been more about the hype of what's to come, and then not seeing huge incremental gains once they're out in the wild. Hopefully, Skylake won't be another example of that trend, but we'll just have to wait and see.
 
Comparison is the thief of joy.

Upgrade when you need a new laptop, and when you upgrade, buy the best one available.
 
catalyst07 said:
When I say best I mean best in the category you need. IE: the 1.3 rMB right now
Click to expand...


Oh, I know; I was just playing around. And I happened to heed to that advice with the hope that my 1.3 might be able to carry me about 3-4 years.

I also didn't think anyone was headed to Oak Ridge to knock on their door asking if "Titan" was for sale
 
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