The tablet market is 100 million units smaller. What happened?

[Andy847]

That's why I left Android and the Note series tablets. My 3 1/2 yr/old Note 10.1 is rooted and rommed and still works fine. Same with my 8" Note, plus now the IPP which takes most of my time now. I still use the Note 10.1 though. I was looking for another Note Tablet to replace it, but didn't want the Note Pro 12", because it's old technology now. Usually every couple years they release something.

I found a website with this years Tablets coming out and the Tab Pro S is too much like the Surface Pro, which I don't need and tried. No Note tablets that I saw this year. Apple won me over and got my business, because they made a quality tablet with stylus that works for Art and drawing.

Also, for the sake of those who keep complaining that the IPP still has IOS, Windows 10 on the Surface Pro 3 & 4 were not that optimized for the tablet. If you wanted optimal resolution, I could barely use it without changing the resolution on the screen. All those pull down menus were tiny. Not friendly for my Older eyes. Also, the fans were noisy and They heated up with the intense programs. My IPP pro I have yet to feel it heat up to the point of being uncomfortable. One of the reasons I chose this over SP's and a Wacom 13" tablet. I don't see any reason why you couldn't adapt an IPP to replace your laptop. I don't like IOS's way of filing things, compared to finder on my Mac, but that's my only negative thing to say about. You just have to change the way you think to get it to work for you. I only need a tablet, but that's just me. If I get a Keyboard for it, I'll see how well it does. I've read many people saying it's replaced theirs.

***** On a side note, does anyone think the Smart Keyboard will ever go on sale?****

I've been eyeing the Zagg Slim Book, but everyone says it's so heavy in reviews. So leaning towards the Smart Keyboard, for portability.

 

[Gav2k]

Market saturation and your average joe does not upgrade a personal computing device every year. A lot of people will continue to use old tech if it still does the job. Hell my dad still rocks my original iPhone and iPad.

 

[bob24]

Market saturation and your average joe does not upgrade a personal computing device every year. A lot of people will continue to use old tech if it still does the job. Hell my dad still rocks my original iPhone and iPad.

Original iPhone, I can see how someone can still be fully happy with it
if they only use it as a phone and for basic stuff such as emailing or instant messaging.

But the iPad must be a pain! My mother (fairly basic user) still uses her iPad 2 and complains it is quite slow even for web browsing, and even some simple Apps crash regularly due to a lack of available RAM. And it does have twice the ram and a faster CPU compared to the original iPad.

 

[maflynn]

Market saturation and your average joe does not upgrade a personal computing device every year.

Agreed, and even here, members don't tend to upgrade their computers very much. I see plenty of threads where people using 2008, 2009, and 2010 iMacs.

Given that the iPad is closer to a computer in the sense of functionality, then a phone, it stands to reason people will not be as inclined to upgrade them as often like a laptop/desktop

 

[nebo1ss]

I am not the least bit surprised by the change in the IPad numbers. I have an iPad and have not picked it up since i purchased my macbook Air. Small light computers with full functionality a proper file system and OSX is always going to win out again an iPad.

 

[scaredpoet]

I am close to thinking tablets with keyboards are a bit like netbooks: a way of trying to provide a desktop experience in a new form factor which many people think is the future and makes it popular for a few years, but will eventually die out because it is ultimately not practical.

It's plenty practical if the expectations are realistic. Netbooks died because they were barebones, incredibly cheap, and could barely do the tasks assigned to them (or couldn't really do them at all). An iPad already has far more processing and graphics capability than the best netbook ever did. And while it will not replace a full blown laptop or desktop for everyone, there are a lot of people for whom tablets fit the bill perfectly.

At work, I saw an IT manger in another department replace his groups desktops and laptops with netbooks and thin clients, because it was "the future" and would save a lot of money. It was a miserable experience and a horrible mistake. On the other hand, we incorporated iPads and tablets in our department to augment our bigger computers, and the experience was a lot better.

Not likely. Keyboard + mouse/trackpad workflows are just more efficient: you see more and its more precise

Not for everything, and as much as Steve Jobs hated the idea, the Pencil has proven that you can do some extremely precise work on a tablet if you have the right stylus. I know some artists and architects who are using their iPad Pros to do things that even a Mac or PC with a traditional pen/tablet input like a Wacom couldn't allow them to do.

As always, this isn't an all or night thing. Just as people who predicted PC's death were wrong, so are people who think the tablet is going away.

 

[maflynn]

ot for everything, and as much as Steve Jobs hated the idea, the Pencil has proven that you can do some extremely precise work on a tablet if you have the right stylus.

That was one irratation I had with my Mini. I was trying to take notes on it, when I first got it. I researched for good stylus and was looking forward to dumping my paper notebooks. Instead on the iPad Mini and the stylus I had, it was like writing with your thumb. The stylus was just a blunt pointer, and I quickly gave up.

Now that Apple has embraced the idea of a stylus, I think I may circle back and see if it can fit in my work flow.

 

[roadbloc]

Everyone who wants one has one. Since most tablet users just want to do basic smartphone tasks (Facebook, email, youtube, web browsing) on a bigger screen, what is the point in upgrading year after year. My mother bought a first generation Hudl and she still uses it today since she'd be doing the exact same stuff on a newer tablet anyway. The best thing is that the Hudl only cost her £20 too.

 

[Narcaz]

Agreed, and even here, members don't tend to upgrade their computers very much. I see plenty of threads where people using 2008, 2009, and 2010 iMacs.

Given that the iPad is closer to a computer in the sense of functionality, then a phone, it stands to reason people will not be as inclined to upgrade them as often like a laptop/desktop

There is very little to incentive to do so from a desktop feature perspective. If speed isn't a problem, why upgrade? And those older machines could easily be upgraded with more RAM and an SSD. Macbook (Air) users from >2011 could face a shorter upgrade cycle due to lack of RAM upgrades and overcomplicated SSD and battery replacements.

I tend to disagree with the second statement. IMO it is rather the other way around. The iPad functionality is still very close to the iPhone experience. Besides the obvious screen (UI) size difference and the more or less artifical iOS restrictions (PiP/Split View/Splitscreen/ Keyboard Shortcuts), they are both still unable to perform a lot of "classic laptop" workflows.

And that's probably the main reason why for some people, who can't replace laptops with iPads, iPads are probably the last device in the line of upgrades. And if those are tight on budget, they could get away with a cheaper mini/android whatever or eliminate tablets completely. I also discovered, that there isn't really a huge usage gap between an Macbook and a 6S Plus anymore (at least for me).

Tablets don't evolve in a vacuum. Recent released fanless ultrabooks or even Apple's own 12'' MB are closing this gap even further. Maybe new iPad functionality like pens and keyboards could turn this around. I really don't know. But seeing all those posts about the accompanying price increase (base price+pen+keyboard cover), this move also alienated some of the core tablets users.

 

[maflynn]

I tend to disagree with the second statement. IMO it is rather the other way around. The iPad functionality is still very close to the iPhone experience. Besides the obvious screen (UI) size difference and the more or less artifical iOS restrictions (PiP/Split View/Splitscreen/ Keyboard Shortcuts), they are both still unable to perform a lot of "classic laptop" workflows.

From my perspective, the IPP can easily handle spreadsheets, word documents and powerpoint type documents. It also can also do image editing, where as the phone cannot easily do any of that. Sure I can edit a word document or pull up an excel spreadsheet on my iPhone but the power and flexibility is lacking, compared to the iPad and desktop computer. So from that perspective I make the comparison that the iPad is functionally closer to a desktop then a phone.

 

[Rogifan]

How about this: maybe what we're seeing now with iPad is where it was meant to be sales wise and the initial sales trajectory was an anomaly. Maybe the iPad is "only" a $20B/yr business. I'm sure many companies would love to have a $20B/yr business. Seems to me the problem with iPad is it grew so fast so quickly it distorted what this market really is. And for what a lot of people used their iPads for the iPad 2 was good enough. And now that people have larger screen phones they're using iPad less so don't feel the need to upgrade.

And this is actually showing up in Apple's iPhone sales. On the old plans, you were always paying subsidy as part of the $30/mo "data plan" regardless of whether you get a new phone or not so might as well just upgrade on the 2-year mark. Then T-Mobile jumpstarted the move from the carrier subsidized model to discounted service+financing. Prior to the iPhone 6/6+ release, US demand was already pretty flat to slightly declining. Most of the growth in iPhone sales came from China. I reckon slowing demand is also part of the reason Apple introduced their in-house iPhone Upgrade Program and slightly lowered the price of entry with the SE.

I actually used to upgrade 2 iPhones every year (4-line family plan with alternating upgrade eligibility years). Now, we're still on the iPhone 5, 5s, 6 and 6+. The 5 and 5s have mechanical and/or battery issues so those will be upgraded to the SE once I find SIM-free/AT&T/Verizon 64GB Space Gray in-stock. However, I'm not feeling any need to replace the 6 and 6+.

It's interesting you say this as with these new installment plans I'm actually upgrading every year now. Why hang on to a phone for two years when I can get a new one every 12 months and the only out of pocket cost is tax?

 

[Narcaz]

From my perspective, the IPP can easily handle spreadsheets, word documents and powerpoint type documents. It also can also do image editing, where as the phone cannot easily do any of that. Sure I can edit a word document or pull up an excel spreadsheet on my iPhone but the power and flexibility is lacking, compared to the iPad and desktop computer. So from that perspective I make the comparison that the iPad is functionally closer to a desktop then a phone.

Some tasks are now possible due to the bigger screen (sometimes better UI), but unless Apple includes more tablet specific features, those are baby steps. I also wouldn't describe ms office for iOS with adjectives like easily and flexible when even average tasks are impossible. As long as you can't e.g. open two instances of word and copy/paste a few paragraphs from one to another, the iPP feels a lot more like an iPhone to me than a desktop. But i guess we can agree to disagree, because this functionality topic has been discussed to death in the laptop replacements/ pro moniker threads.

 

[Cole Slaw]

Who wants to be the one to tell Tim we're in the Post Tablet Era?

 

[rui no onna]

And that's probably the main reason why for some people, who can't replace laptops with iPads, iPads are probably the last device in the line of upgrades. And if those are tight on budget, they could get away with a cheaper mini/android whatever or eliminate tablets completely. I also discovered, that there isn't really a huge usage gap between an Macbook and a 6S Plus anymore (at least for me).

Interestingly enough, the iPad is the only device I find myself upgrading nowadays (for speed, webpages are much more complex nowadays and appear to require more CPU cycles). Desktops and laptops (when equipped with good SSDs) have long reached the point where they're more than fast enough for everyday tasks so I haven't needed to upgrade them. However, if I can only keep one device then it's the laptop. That said, yes, tablets are considered luxury items by most.

It's interesting you say this as with these new installment plans I'm actually upgrading every year now. Why hang on to a phone for two years when I can get a new one every 12 months and the only out of pocket cost is tax?

I reckon that's what carriers and Apple wants to see, too. Maybe it's because the crowd I interact with are cheapskates or are just not into technology so I see far more folks who are pocketing the savings (or switching to even cheaper prepaid plans like Cricket) instead of upgrading their phones yearly on carrier financing plans.

 

[throAU]

I am not the least bit surprised by the change in the IPad numbers. I have an iPad and have not picked it up since i purchased my macbook Air. Small light computers with full functionality a proper file system and OSX is always going to win out again an iPad.

Depends on your use case.

If you're reading or watching a movie in bed a tablet is better.

Of course if you're trying to do computer type things a computer will be better. But that's not what the iPad is for in the first place.

Just realised my iPad 4 is probably 4-5 years old now. It's still fine. No driver to upgrade it, though i DO miss touchID when i use it.

 

[Mascots]

Personally, I haven't seen any rich development from the iPad line since its launch until the iPad Pro.

Features like Pencil support, which make my iPad usable in ways that it wasn't before, are needed to motivate me to purchase the device. Beyond the change of form (Original -> 2 -> Air), not much else has done that. Iterative improvements are nice and when stacked over the course of time qualify for my definition of rich development, but even qualifying and quantifying every feature over the last 5 years fills me with eh. Some people may rave, but it's enough eh as an iPad user to not upgrade.

I, too, have an iPad Mini 2 that I adore and was not going to upgrade until the iPad Pro 9.7" was released -- and that's partially why I'm sour over Apple's marketing decision to split it from the Air line: These updates were a long time coming.

 

[bniu]

my biggest issue with iOS is still the apps. Apps such as Adobe's Lightroom that only offer a subset of the features as the desktop variant, Microsoft office which doesn't offer equation editor on iOS, I can't code effectively on an iPad, I can't pull data from a database, iMovie is limited functionality on iOS, etc

I want complete desktop parity and not some cheesy mobile variant...

 

[rowspaxe]

[...] the Pencil has proven that you can do some extremely precise work on a tablet if you have the right stylus. I know some artists and architects who are using their iPad Pros to do things that even a Mac or PC with a traditional pen/tablet input like a Wacom couldn't allow them to do..

I assume your talking about an intous style tablet. I disagree. The ability to work in 2 dimensions without your hands blocking your view makes a remote pointer device --trackpad, mouse, intuos pen--superior to the pencil. Using the pencil in real space to point and "click" is fatigueing. Also, no right click, no double click. Obviously, the pencil is better for diagrams and handwriting
[doublepost=1460475936][/doublepost]

my biggest issue with iOS is still the apps. Apps such as Adobe's Lightroom that only offer a subset of the features as the desktop variant, Microsoft office which doesn't offer equation editor on iOS, I can't code effectively on an iPad, I can't pull data from a database, iMovie is limited functionality on iOS, etc

Wait, I thought devs were going to fix this....

 

[Narcaz]

Interestingly enough, the iPad is the only device I find myself upgrading nowadays (for speed, webpages are much more complex nowadays and appear to require more CPU cycles). Desktops and laptops (when equipped with good SSDs) have long reached the point where they're more than fast enough for everyday tasks so I haven't needed to upgrade them. However, if I can only keep one device then it's the laptop. That said, yes, tablets are considered luxury items by most. (....)

It's is a sad story that some of Apples recent iMacs have worse storage speeds than their iPads. They also ignored a noticeable progress in the graphics department (for desktops). Their current laptop/desktop lineup isn't really appealing. If i wanted to upgrade my 15 rMBP from 2013, i wouldn't know what to buy. They offer a new force touch trackpad, and slightly faster ssd, but still the same processor architecture, ram and a mediocre graphics cards. At least they found the time to update their iPads and make some people happy.

I assume your talking about an intous style tablet. I disagree. The ability to work in 2 dimensions without your hands blocking your view makes a remote pointer device --trackpad, mouse, intuos pen--superior to the pencil. Using the pencil in real space to point and "click" is fatigueing. Also, no right click, no double click. Obviously, the pencil is better for diagrams and handwriting
[doublepost=1460475936][/doublepost]

Wait, I thought devs were going to fix this....

There a signs that this won't change in the near future. So far a lot of developers seem to look for the lowest common denominator. And those are A5 iPads (iPad2/3 mini1) with over 48 marketshare (according to localytics). In order to get a return of their investment, they need this broad audience. Apple hasn't established a viable iPad App Store category with trials, higher prices and upgrade price for apps. So far it is a risk for smaller developer to cater a niche like the iPad Pro (and even this niche is already slightly fragmented, if you look a the Procreate layer difference for 2 and 4GB Ram).

 

[Noble Actual]

People realized they don't actually need tablets.

Bigger phones, better laptops.

 

[goobot]

I was about to say the exactly same thing! Tablets will be our future home and work computing machines. For newer generations, a touch screen feels way more natural than mouse/keyboard combo. I believe iPad Pro in 5 years will replace all my computing needs.

People said the same thing about the original iPad 6 years ago.

 

[Leo90]

People said the same thing about the original iPad 6 years ago.

But the apps are not there yet...

 

[bniu]

Well, with iOS 10, A5 devices will most definitely be left behind and maybe even A6 and A6X devices will also be left behind, with iOS going all 64 bit soon, that should greatly improve the lowest common denominator for apps

 

[bufffilm]

Not only is the tablet market stagnant, so is the PC market. Also, I believe 2016 will be the first year when the smart phone market will be stagnant. A lot of this is due to the fact that processor/graphics have improved so much that there is less need to update these devices. There is also a lack of progress in hardware performance that is taking place. On the front page is an article on Intel ceasing with their tic/toc upgrades due to physical constraints.

The bottom like, I think computing hardware is going to become a commodity, and the average selling price will shrink significantly over the next few years. Apple is fighting to keep their high margins, but I think that will ultimately be a losing battle. Why upgrade an iPad if it does everything you need, and it does it reasonably fast?

So you think retail prices will fall significantly. So the price of the Pro 9.7 will go down to $500?

I would love that but don't think it will happen.

 

[rowspaxe]

Their current laptop/desktop lineup isn't really appealing. If i wanted to upgrade my 15 rMBP from 2013, i wouldn't know what to buy. They offer a new force touch trackpad, and slightly faster ssd, but still the same processor architecture, ram and a mediocre graphics cards. At least they found the time to update their iPads and make some people happy.

MBPs are still arguably the best laptops available. MBP's are not gaming machines, but they are good for 3d graphics, video editing and other highend tasks.