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The User Base of iPhone X / Preorder Myths

S

serialiphoneuser

macrumors regular
Original poster
Sep 21, 2016
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At this point in time, everyone has made their decision whether to purchase the iPhone X or not. It's entertaining seeing everyone think that the iPhone X is going to sell out in a few minutes or seconds.

The iPhone X is for a niche of a niche user base (a majority of people, even the most ardent fans of iPhone and Apple don't want it).
The preorders will be up at least 24 hours till the last model of iPhone X sells out. Don't sweat. If you're thinking of preordering it, you will have your chance, you don't have to be preorder it the very first second it goes live to be able to get one.
 
OP is saying the hype is big right now and perhaps the numbers wont come out for a $1,000 and up phone versus $650 typically they start at. $350 is a big difference for many people.

I do believe there is some truth to this, and the hype is bigger than the actual demand. I still think demand will be high, but not selling out in 60 seconds high.

Remember tech sites/forums and polls are the diehards; not everyone is that excited or able to pay $1,000 for an Apple cellphone.
 
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stulaw11 said:
OP is saying the hype is big right now and perhaps the numbers wont come out for a $1,000 and up phone versus $650 typically they start at. $350 is a big difference for many people.

I do believe there is some truth to this, and the hype is bigger than the actual demand. I still think demand will be high, but not selling out in 60 seconds high.
Click to expand...

Not just the price.. the price + the Touch-ID removal eliminated a vast potential number of people who would otherwise be inclined to get it. Add to that the number of people who are averse to Face-based authentication systems. It's a niche of a niche.
 
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I do agree somewhat, not so much on the Touch ID part necessarily but moreso the price.

We've never been at the $1,000 for an entry level storage smartphone before; this is unprecedented territory in the market.
 
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As someone who works in "the industry", I personally believe it will sell out within a few hours, if not the first hour or two... I personally haven't seen the sales numbers for the iPhone 8 like I've seen with the 7, 6s, 6 etc etc. Most of the people I've spoken with are waiting for the X, and a lot of the people I see year over year (around a 100 of unique individuals I see on a yearly basis), I have not seen yet this year for an iPhone.
 
Oridus said:
As someone who works in "the industry", I personally believe it will sell out within a few hours, if not the first hour or two... I personally haven't seen the sales numbers for the iPhone 8 like I've seen with the 7, 6s, 6 etc etc. Most of the people I've spoken with are waiting for the X, and a lot of the people I see year over year (around a 100 of unique individuals I see on a yearly basis), I have not seen yet this year for an iPhone.
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Oh I agree even in 30 minutes, but not 30 seconds some people are freaking out over. There are also a lot of people like east coast who want the X but wont stay up on a work day until 1, 2, 3am too; they'll eventually get one. Im sure some of those people you spoke to are in that group who will get the X but perhaps not tonight so late.

I think Apple has more stock then it led on as well as Tim cook even said "we'll see" which hints to me they have more ready than being stated; and even then those are analyst guesses based on not much.
 
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stulaw11 said:
Oh I agree even in 30 minutes, but not 30 seconds some people are freaking out over. There are also a lot of people like east coast who want the X but wont stay up on a work day until 3am too; they'll eventually get one. Im sure some of those people you spoke to are in that boast.

I think Apple has more stock then it led on as well as Tim cook even said "we'll see" which hints to me they have more ready than being stated; and even then those are analyst guesses based on not much.
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All I know is that last year, I messed up with my online order process for a Jet Black 128 7P, and that few minutes cost me 6 weeks >_< I do not intend on having that happen again, lmao.
 
Oridus said:
All I know is that last year, I messed up with my online order process for a Jet Black 128 7P, and that few minutes cost me 6 weeks >_< I do not intend on having that happen again, lmao.
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Jet black was a different story, they had way less of those in all sizes than the other colors to begin with. There are only 4 X versions, I doubt any config is lacking supply like the jet black.

For instance we heard the 7 and 7 Plus were in short supply at preorder and I had no trouble a day or 2 after launch walking into an Apple store and getting a matte black Plus before my preorder even shipped.
 
stulaw11 said:
Jet black was a different story, they had way less of those in all sizes than the other colors to begin with. There are only 4 X versions, I doubt any config is lacking supply like the jet black.

For instance we heard the 7 and 7 Plus were in short supply at preorder and I had no trouble a day or 2 after launch walking into an Apple store and getting a matte black Plus before my preorder even shipped.
Click to expand...

You speak the truth. :)
 
stulaw11 said:
I do agree somewhat, not so much on the Touch ID part necessarily but moreso the price.

We've never been at the $1,000 for an entry level storage smartphone before; this is unprecedented territory in the market.
Click to expand...
Have you priced Android phones lately from Google and Samsung? This thread is personal opinions like politicians saying “the people” have spoken.
 
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selling out is a misnomer. the store will continue to take orders indefinitely. the question is at what moment does shipping estimates move beyond the initial release date. my guess is probably quite early in the process, within the first 15-30min
 
rawlus said:
selling out is a misnomer. the store will continue to take orders indefinitely. the question is at what moment does shipping estimates move beyond the initial release date. my guess is probably quite early in the process, within the first 15-30min
Click to expand...

I'm quite sure that when we all speak of "selling out", we speak of launch day devices being fulfilled... But of course you knew that. You just wanted to be extra.
 
burgman said:
Have you priced Android phones lately from Google and Samsung? This thread is personal opinions like politicians saying “the people” have spoken.
Click to expand...

Sure. The pixel 2 is $649 retail from Google for the same 64gb and already on big sales (ATT & VZW giving $200/$250 off right now), and the S8 is $724 retail and on huge sales as well. Both 64gb. The X is $999 for 64gb.

the larger size screen of both were $849/824 respectivly full price and on sales as well. Still $150+ less than the 64gb X

I like Apple devices far better still, but to say the X is not high priced vs the competition is nuts.
 
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stulaw11 said:
The note 8 is a bit different class/niche device. It also didnt sell multiple millions of units at that price. They had all of 650k preorders after 5 DAYS; not minutes.
Click to expand...

My only point about it is everyone is making such a big deal about the improve of the iPhone X yet no one mentions the price of that.
 
Wrong, and WRONG

The iPhone 8 sales indicate a pending rush on these. You underestimate the lack of frugality today.
 
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While I don’t know what stock will be. I only know one other person besides myself who plans on getting this phone.

I will just have to see what happens. Price is a factor for a lot of people.
 
serialiphoneuser said:
At this point in time, everyone has made their decision whether to purchase the iPhone X or not. It's entertaining seeing everyone think that the iPhone X is going to sell out in a few minutes or seconds.

The iPhone X is for a niche of a niche user base (a majority of people, even the most ardent fans of iPhone and Apple don't want it).
The preorders will be up at least 24 hours till the last model of iPhone X sells out. Don't sweat. If you're thinking of preordering it, you will have your chance, you don't have to be preorder it the very first second it goes live to be able to get one.
Click to expand...

1. Some of us here are old, but we aren't blind. You don't need to scream.

2. If the iPhone X is for a "niche of a niche user base" then why are Wall Street investors betting Apple will sell upwards 30m by the end of this year and that is only because of the production issues? These are people putting $ up on this and going long not short on AAPL? Doesn't sound niche to me. And that is just this year. Once Apple fully ramps up it's estimated to account for 1/2 of all iPhone sales -- so another 100m.

3. If 1% of iPhone users pre-order (that's about as niche as you get) that would be 5m pre-orders based on a 500m installed based worldwide - vast, vast majority of those in launch countries. Estimated pre-order inventory is said to be 3m units.

4. Popularity is just one data point in estimating how long pre-order inventory will last. Also important is how many units are available, which models, and how they are allotted between carriers.

Odds are high the X pre-order will be sold out for launch day fairly fast. I won't posit a guess how fast, but I will guess that the most popular models/carriers will be gone before the sun rises.
 
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It's anyone's guess as to how soon the X will sell out or shipping dates will slip. If it is important to you to get the X, set that alarm and be ready to go as soon as the store goes live. I've been up at 3 am for most pre-orders but this is one I'll miss as I chose the 8. Good luck to everyone.
 
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