500 GB is plenty. I have 1 TB to back up 500 GB, and still have a year's worth of backups on there.
Normally I would say getting the bigger drive for a bit extra would be more future proof, but presumably it's USB 2 which is itself becoming dated anyway. But if you're sure you won't ever want to use the disk for backing up a second Mac, a bigger Mac, or some other purpose, then go with the 500 GB.