Based on that photo, I'd still argue that the Rolex appears larger. As you pointed out, it's slightly larger in dimension.
Watch nerds like me know that dial size is as important, if not more important, than case dimensions, when it comes to finding the right watch size. As I mentioned earlier, my 39mm Aqua Terra wears larger than my 40mm Sub.
Add a leather strap with the built-in lugs, and even the case of the 38mm Watch gets close to the Sub's size, too.
Also, band size makes a difference. My Sub's bracelet starts at 20mm and tapers down to 17mm, which is narrower than even the 38mm Apple Watch's rubber band.
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