too wait or not too wait

Discussion in 'iPod touch' started by losthobbit, Jun 11, 2008.

  1. losthobbit macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2008
    #1
    Quick question for all of you experts out there:

    I've been saving and waiting patiently for a 32 gb ipod touch for a few months now.

    Should I get one after the July software update or should I go ahead and wait until September when they usually have the bigger update?

    I really don't want to wait but will if it'll end up in a better product/deal.

    Thanks for any and all advice.
     
  2. eplchamps0304 macrumors 6502a

    eplchamps0304

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2008
    #2
    its up to you man. if you need it get it. there us no guaranty that something will happen in September, and if it does, that you will like it.
     
  3. losthobbit thread starter macrumors newbie

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    Jun 10, 2008
    #3
    good point

    I was just wondering, I guess, if anyone had heard anything about the september update. Thanks.
     
  4. BillyBobBongo macrumors 68020

    BillyBobBongo

    Joined:
    Jun 21, 2007
    Location:
    On The Interweb Thingy!
    #4
    If you need it now then get it...it's a top piece of kit!!!

    That said, I'm still adamant that come July 11th the iPod Touch's price will be quietly altered to put it back in line with the new 3G iPhone.

    As for September....not a clue I'm afraid! Besides....September is sooooo far away! Are you sure you can go that long without Touching?! ;)
     
  5. EdwardsNH macrumors member

    Joined:
    Feb 12, 2008
    #5
    Oh for cryin' out loud

    Sorry, but I have to say this first. I often see "to" where "too" is called for, but only here can one see "too" where "to" is called for... twice.

    Now, to the point of the question:

    What do you think will be added? If going by the new phone, which is probably a good measure to go by, the new Touch will be thinner, have longer battery life, and just possibly have GPS.

    What I personally would also like to see is an external speaker. However, I'm not too sure we're going to see that. Honestly, I doubt we'll even see the GPS, but I wouldn't rule it out.

    The only "for sure" I think we can expect is longer battery life.

    So the question becomes, how bad do you want it now vs. the possibility of new features.

    I wanted the Touch as soon as it was announced, but the "crippling" of features turned me off. I actually waited until the 32GB was released. That being said, I don't think I would wait for the new one at this point if I were you.
     
  6. eplchamps0304 macrumors 6502a

    eplchamps0304

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    Jan 31, 2008
    #6
    add gps and see the price jacked up, or the USB cable removed.
     
  7. tallguy macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2008
    Location:
    Canada
    #7
    I'm trying to figure out this same problem. But now or wait. I think that apple will have to lower the prices for the touch due to the price drop of the iphone though so thats an incentive to wait and i don't really need it until school starts up again.
     
  8. eplchamps0304 macrumors 6502a

    eplchamps0304

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2008
    #8
    what does one have to do with the other?
     
  9. mekopolis macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Feb 10, 2008
    #9
    i dont see them lowering their profit margins on the ipod line,
    they get $10 a month from AT&T which gives then the subsidy difference plus more...

    the touch is considered a high end ipod, so they wont subsidize it or lower the price
     
  10. DCBass macrumors 6502

    Joined:
    Jan 23, 2004
    Location:
    Washington, DC
    #10

    Actually more than you might think. I was seriously considering getting an iPod Touch for my wife (8gb) for our anniversary, but then the new iPhone price was announced.

    We're definitely not getting the iphone (i'm not keen on payin $30 on top of my voice plan), but it's hard to imagine paying so much for an 8gb ipod touch now. I know, the logic doesn't totally make sense since the iPhone isn't an option... more psychology than anything.

    But, here's a better way to look at it, answering the OP's original question.

    Today, the 32 GB iPod Touch = $499.

    I think it's reasonable to assume that the touch line will get refreshed in some manner in September... The same thing has happened with iPods getting refreshed towards the end of the annual back to school promotion many many times now that it's a fairly reliable pattern.

    To illustrate, I have a plan to show you the way home... to your decision.

    Please excuse the crudity of this model, I didn't have time to build it to scale or to paint it... or factor in discounting to the present value...


    So, in September, I believe we can expect a $100 price drop in the 32 GB ipod touch. Let's give this a 90% probability. Also, let's not forget about the $10 update that you would most likely buy (let's say 100% certainty). Finally, suppose there is a model redesign, perhaps including GPS or some other hardware feature... let's give this additional utility a subjective value of $X with a probability of, say, 60%.

    To sum up:

    Expected Value =
    p($100 price drop)*p($10 soft. update)*p(hardware feature)(A+B+C) +
    p($100 price drop)*p($10 soft. update)*p(NO hardware feature)(A+B+C) +
    p($100 price drop)*p(NO $10 soft. update)*p(hardware feature)(A+B+C) +
    p($100 price drop)*p(NO $10 soft. update)*p(NO hardware feature)(A+B+C) +
    p(NO $100 price drop)*p($10 soft. update)*p(hardware feature)(A+B+C) +
    p(NO $100 price drop)*p($10 soft. update)*p(NO hardware feature)(A+B+C) +
    p(NO $100 price drop)*p(NO $10 soft. update)*p(hardware feature)(A+B+C) +
    p(NO $100 price drop)*p(NO $10 soft. update)*p(NO hardware feature)(A+B+C)

    where:
    p($100 price drop) = .90
    p(NO $100 price drop) = 0.1
    p($10 soft. update) = 1.0
    p(NO $10 soft. update) = 0
    p(hardware feature) = 0.6
    p(NO hardware feature) = 0.4

    A = $100
    B = $10
    C = $X

    SO, after some simplifying:

    Expected Value =
    (0.9)(1.0)(0.6)($100+$10+$X) +
    (0.9)(1.0)(0.4)($100+$10) +
    (0.1)(1.0)(0.6)($10+$X) +
    (0.1)(1.0)(0.4)($10)

    = $59.4 + (0.54)($X) + $39.6 + $0.60 + (0.06)($X) + $0.40
    = $100 + (0.6)($X)

    If you buy a 32GB iPod Touch now instead of waiting till September for a probably-enhanced 32GB iPod Touch, you will be paying a premium of $100 + (0.6)($X). If that is worth it to you, then by all means...

    Personally, it's not worth it to me (or my wife).

    Hope this helps.

    Cheers,

    DCBass
     
  11. eplchamps0304 macrumors 6502a

    eplchamps0304

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2008
    #11
    its all speculation. The ipod touch is expensive not because of the new iphone price, it has always been expensive. The iphone is reduced so that ATT can get more customers and more money in the long term.
     
  12. vanzskater272 macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2006
    #12
    I am also gonna buy the 32gb touch. if prices of used ones drop by a lot then ill buy one now but its best just to wait for the bigger update. hopefully a camera or something
     
  13. Westsider 4 Mac macrumors regular

    Westsider 4 Mac

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    On the West Side
  14. Kohkane macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2008
    #14
    I'm mainly waiting cuz i don't have 450.97 yet (Including the accessories im splurging on :eek:) So whatever comes out newer and better in sept (Assuming I havnt bought my ipod touch yet) I'll get it..If theres a 100 dollar price drop on the 32gb touch..I'll get it :D
     
  15. copydeskcat macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2008
    #15
    I think it's *likely* that the price might drop around July 11, but probably only by about $50-$100.

    It's *unlikely* that the Touch will be significantly upgraded in September because it was recently upgraded in February (to 32GB). Memory is always the first thing to be upgraded on a device like the iPod - and the next jump in flash memory would be to 64GB. They're never going to up it to 40GB (it's not a big enough jump from 32GB and would be a waste of resources and marketing) and AFAIK, flash drives aren't built in 40/50GB sizes. Also, double memory would be expensive to produce (thereby increasing the price of the product). So it would be upped to 64GB, or nothing. I'm betting on nothing. I could be wrong.

    It's possible that the Touch could get a similar backplate to the 3G iPhone to keep the entire range in line (it's always cheaper to standardise a product line and build the same components to use across the range - iPhone-iPod Touch screens/housings, Nano-iPod classic screeens, scroll-wheels, headphone jacks etc.). However, the Touch is much thinner than the iPhone, so the backplates may not be compatible. But, if they jump it to 64GB, a fatter backplate would make sense. Either way, the 32GB Touch is still going to be part of the range, even if a bigger one has a nicer backplate.

    It's *possible* that they might include a camera or GPS - but there wouldn't be a significant advantage in both increasing the size of the device and increasing the price of it for features that most people already have on their mobile phone (and most mobiles have a better camera than the sub-standard 2mp one on the iPhone. Also, people who buy the iPod Touch are generally happy with their mobile - they buy the Touch for the features: music, video, wi-fi browsing, apps, etc.

    I don't see Apple impacting on the iPhone's features like this for a while to come - they want to sell phones and get people locked in (just in the same way iTunes was designed to get people buying iPods, the iPhone is designed to bring in carrier revenue). Putting the iPhone's features on an iPod is only going to make people buy the iPod - which means Apple would lose out on potential carrier revenue.

    The other amazing thing about the Touch - when they bring out new software, it's just an update (sure, sometimes one you need to pay for) - so there's no need to keep replacing your device to get some cool new gizmos. Sure, they might bring out one with a camera and bigger memory - but then again, they might not.

    If you're going to buy, buy now - or just after 11 July.

    I'm heading to Florida on 3 July, and I don't head back to the UK until 25 July. I'll be buying my 32GB iPod touch the day before I head home to give me the best chance of catching both the 2.0 software update and a possible price drop.

    I think it's fair to say that any significant changes in the model (ie. backplate, memory upgrade, new components/physical features etc.) aren't going to happen until later in the year - more like September/October - if at all.

    Either way, if you keep holding on, you'll never buy one - just get one and enjoy it. They're amazing devices.
     
  16. unregbaron macrumors regular

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    Oct 20, 2002
    #16
    Amazing devices they may be but without GPS I won't buy.
     
  17. copydeskcat macrumors regular

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    Jun 12, 2008
    #17
    Personally, I have GPS on my Nokia n95, and it's totally over-rated. It works fine, but I can't think of any real reason I'd need to use it, other than for fun. Even if the Touch had GPS, you'd still need a decent wi-fi or internet connection to corroborate positioning.

    I know my way to and from my work, I don't travel a lot for business (certainly not such that I would lose my way and need a GPS system to get me out of a bind) and it pummells battery life like no other feature on a mobile device.

    One other advantage of having an N95 with an iPod Touch: if I'm ever out of range of a wi-fi hotspot and *really* need to type out a long email or something similar and want to use the Touch to do it (Opera mobile on the n95 rocks for browsing the web), all I'll need to do is fire up http://joiku.com/ and turn my n95 into a wif-fi hotspot.
     
  18. mzd macrumors 6502a

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    Jul 25, 2005
    Location:
    Wisconsin
    #18
    i just have trouble seeing apple change the iPod touch pricing or line up while the back to school promo is going on. i would love for that to be the case, because i don't really want to wait until september, but i'm fairly certain there will be an update soon and that is the most likely time. i know i'd kick myself for not being a little more patient and waiting out the three months or so. :confused:
     
  19. copydeskcat macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2008
    #19
    Like I say, if you fathom it out, the most you can probably hope for is a change in the backplate or a price drop - maybe an outside chance of a memory upgrade.

    Otherwise, it'll be 2009 - probably around February - before you see anything significant.

    Take it one item at a time:

    1. Price drop: given the change in price to the iPhone, this could be on the cards. Verdict: very likely.

    2. Memory: was upped to 32GB in February 2008. The next jump will be to 64GB. I'd reckon this is unlikely to happen as soon as September, given the price of flash memory, and a significant jump could increase the thickness of the case. Verdict: possible, but unlikely.

    3. Case change: The back of the iPhone has been changed, so it wouldn't be too dumb to change the iPod Touch backplate. Verdict: possible.

    4. Camera: unless it's 3-4mp+, forget it. Verdict: it's not going to happen.

    5. GPS: easy to do and wouldn't significantly alter the size of the device. Verdict: possible, but unlikely.

    So, we're back at a price-drop, memory upgrade, and a backplate change.

    If it's a price-drop, it'll happen at one of two major opportunities: the 11 July launch of iPhone, or in September/October in advance of the holidays.

    If it's a memory update to 64GB, it'll still cost you $499 for a top-of-the-range iPod touch. In which instance, the 32GB would probably drop to $399 anyway and the 8GB would probably fall off the radar.

    If it's a backplate change, and nothing else, you've wasted your time waiting.

    I'm getting mine on 23 July, or I'll end up paying another $140 if I buy it in the UK when I get home if I wait.
     
  20. tennez macrumors regular

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    Jan 16, 2007
  21. mixmacface macrumors regular

    mixmacface

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    Jun 8, 2008
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    in the 7th layer of hell.
    #21
    hoorah! go for it now! waiting sucks tremendously. if you have the means of buying it now, go for it. i quote someone on another thread (who's name escapes me) "If you're waiting for the next thing, you're never going to buy."
    and fellow grammar nazi, edwardsnh, i salute you and envy you for beating me to the point about too and to.
     
  22. whiteness macrumors member

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    Jun 21, 2008
  23. whiteness macrumors member

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    Jun 21, 2008
    #23
    yeah same i will buy the 32gb ipod touch in this july
    cz i think 64gb its too expensive for this moment
    maybe next year theyr gonna upgrade the ipod touch
     
  24. LeahM macrumors 6502a

    LeahM

    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2008
    #24
    Isn't Apple the most tight lipped company there is out there? So I don't know how people will hear about updates, other then rumors, which are just rumors. Its a gamble either way, if you want to wait, you'll have to go without. You'll live, if you wait, then you may or may not get an update. But if you buy now you could always pay the fee that MIGHT be associated with the update.

    Its a personal decision that really only you can decide. How badly do you want an ipod touch?
     

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