Got a tip for us?
Let us know
Become a MacRumors Supporter for $50/year with no ads, ability to filter front page stories, and private forums.
Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2007
- Thread starter Doctor Q
- Start date
- Sort by reaction score
I'll crack that top 50 someday. I think I sleep to much.
I thought I would crack fifty too, but I have my doubts about it. Most of the top fifty are very very active...
As far as sleeping too much, I don't think that's possible...
alright, i was mentioned
third highest in the last 6 months. i wonder what that was per day
alright, i was mentioned
24.49 ppd. Or thereabouts.
thanks. yeah i should have just done the math
Meh, it's midnight, that can be your excuse.
Is it strange that I track my own post statistics? I have projected figures and the like.
Thanks for the stats on those spamalicious 50, it's good to know who to watch out for.
edit: if I keep up this past week's post rate, I'm on schedule for 7357 posts come January 4th. Odds on that happening? Hah.
On the other hand, if I keep up my lifetime post rate, I'll hit 7357 posts on Februray 4th.....2011.
Thanks for the stats on those spamalicious 50, it's good to know who to watch out for.
edit: if I keep up this past week's post rate, I'm on schedule for 7357 posts come January 4th. Odds on that happening? Hah.
On the other hand, if I keep up my lifetime post rate, I'll hit 7357 posts on Februray 4th.....2011.
Is it strange that I track my own post statistics? I have projected figures and the like.
Thanks for the stats on those spamalicious 50, it's good to know who to watch out for.
well, i wouldn't call that exactly normal
E-gad!
I'm back from Independence Day celebrations. (I hope carrying folding chairs works off all of the calories of red, white, and blue cupcakes.) So now I will get back to work and prepare the next chart.
Chart #2: 6-Month Projected Top 50 Posters
Computed by Doctor Q on July 4, 2007
Columns:
Computed by Doctor Q on July 4, 2007
Code:
Proj Projection Proj Cur Delta
Rank Jan. 4, 2008 Posts Rank Rank
---- -------------- ------ ---- -----
1 mad jew 32,282 1 0
2 Mr. Anderson 23,347 2 0
3 jsw 23,041 3 0
4 mkrishnan 20,333 5 +1
5 Doctor Q 19,304 4 -1
6 ~Shard~ 17,050 7 +1
7 wdlove 16,648 6 -1
8 PlaceofDis 15,383 12 +4
9 devilot 14,891 17 +8
10 bousozoku 14,317 8 -2
11 Blue Velvet 13,972 14 +3
12 edesignuk 13,574 9 -3
13 Abstract 13,497 15 +2
14 yellow 13,109 13 -1
15 iGary 12,926 10 -5
16 WildCowboy 12,136 23 +7
17 eyelikeart 12,116 11 -6
18 emw 11,740 20 +2
19 Rower_CPU 11,364 16 -3
20 raggedjimmi 11,345 26 +6
21 dmw007 11,313 19 -2
22 Mitthrawnuruodo 10,875 25 +3
23 CanadaRAM 10,791 27 +4
24 Nermal 10,470 21 -3
25 Sun Baked 10,301 24 -1
Code:
Proj Projection Proj Cur Delta
Rank Jan. 4, 2008 Posts Rank Rank
---- -------------- ------ ---- -----
26 vniow 10,246 18 -8
27 jelloshotsrule 10,046 22 -5
28 iMeowbot 9,875 29 +1
29 iBlue 9,602 40 +11
30 katie ta achoo 9,566 31 +1
31 MacRumorUser 9,376 38 +7
32 dynamicv 9,156 49 +17
33 jefhatfield 8,825 28 -5
34 Applespider 8,751 30 -4
35 Chundles 8,593 32 -3
36 nagromme 8,577 36 0
37 arn 8,471 33 -4
38 Jaffa Cake 8,397 47 +9
39 iGAV 8,363 34 -5
40 kretzy 8,296 43 +3
41 Eidorian 8,221 --- ---
42 Mord 8,166 39 -3
43 dcv 7,979 --- ---
44 robbieduncan 7,922 48 +4
45 Chip NoVaMac 7,761 35 -10
46 mattscott306 7,760 --- ---
47 bartelby 7,679 46 -1
48 Counterfit 7,509 44 -4
49 MacBandit 7,420 37 -12
50 IJ Reilly 7,330 --- ---- Proj Rank = Projected position in order by post count, 1 (highest) to 50.
- Projection Jan. 4, 2008 = members with the 50 highest projected post counts based on current post count and rate for the last 6 months.
- Proj Posts = projected # of posts by that member.
- Cur Rank = current rank, as of July 2007 (from Chart #1), or "---" for those who are not in the current Top 50.
- Delta Rank = projected change in rank, i.e., # of slots +higher or -lower in rank over the next 6 months.
Comments on the 6-Month Projections
I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (excluding posts that the forum system does not count) and post rates over the last 6 months.
The results are only estimates because members change their rate of posting, current members will join the list or drop out, and new members will appear.
They are overestimates for members who have had a recent flurry of posts and will "settle down" in the next months, and underestimates for members who have taken temporary breaks to visit the alleged "real world."
Changed members
Four members (the same as last time) are projected to join the Top 50 list:
Eidorian (#41), dcv (#43), mattscott306 (#46), IJ Reilly (#50)
None will be in the Top 25.
Four members projected to fall off the Top 50 list (current rank):
scem0 (#41), MrMacman (#42), Lacero (#45), clayj (#50)
All eight are/were near the bottom of the list, so none made great leaps in overall position. They merely crossed the magic 50-51 border.
Members next closest to the Top 50 list:
EricNau -- missed by 14 posts (0.08 posts/day)
MacNut -- missed by 187 posts (1.0 posts/day)
Random trivia
It is projected to take 7,330 posts to make the Top 50. Currently, it takes 6,441 posts.
jelloshotsrule: projected to have the lowest 5-digit-post-count
AlphaTech, one of the high posters early in the history of MacRumors, would still be in the Top 100.
Powerbook G5, once a prolific poster, and the one who will always be remembered as creator of the MacRumors pics! thread, would no longer make the Top 100.
The number of members with over 10,000 posts grows from 19 to 27. You need 7,330 posts (up from 6,441) to qualify for the Top 50. mad jew is the only member projected to have over 30,000 posts, while Mr. Anderson, jsw, and mkrishnan will each have over 20,000.
For the first time, more than half the members of the Top 50 will have 10,000 or more posts!
Changes in rank
The Top 3 (mad jew and Mr. Anderson and jsw) aren't budging, but mkrishnan should pass Doctor Q and ~Shard~ should pass wdlove.
bousozoku, who made it to a new high of slot #8, will be bumped back down by PlaceofDis and devilot, moving into #8 and #9. That leaves bousozoku as #10, where he seems to belong, if you remember his habit of alternating between #10 and #11 in past projections.
People who can't tell one blue forum member from another will be confused by the fact that edesignuk and Blue Velvet are one apart in the rankings, at #12 and #11, while edesignuk and iBlue, whose avatars often match each other, will remain apart in the rankings, despite iBlue's ascent from #40 to #29. Meanwhile, the forum member actually named blue will fail to make the Top 50, or the Top 5,000!
Rower_CPU, who posts now and then, will stay in the Top 20, and still won't have passed eyelikeart.
dmw007, who made the Top 20 since 6 months ago, will slip back out of the Top 20.
Smallest margin of victory:
Chip NoVaMac (#45) with a 1-post(!) lead over mattscott306 (#46). That's definitely a world's record.
Next smallest:
max_altitude (#35), who bested arn by 12 posts, and Chundles (#35), 16 posts ahead of nagromme (#36)
Largest margin of victory:
mad jew (#1), amassing an astounding 8,935-post lead over Mr. Anderson (#2)
Next largest:
jsw (#3), 2,708 posts ahead of mkrishnan (#4), and Doctor Q (#5), 2,255 posts ahead of ~Shard~
Highest projected rise in rank:
dynamicv (up 17 slots), beating WildCowboy's 15-slot jump from last time.
Next highest:
iBlue (up 11 slots), Jaffa Cake (up 9 slots), devilot (up 8 slots)
Highest projected loss in rank (while still on the Top 50):
MacBandit (down 12 slots)
Next highest:
Chip NoVaMac (down 10 slots), then vniow (down 8 slots) and eyelikeart (down 6 slots)
As mentioned above, the Top 3 are projected to retain their positions. The other member projected to retain position is nagromme (#36).
Excluded and inactive members
No banned or unregistered members are projected to remain in the Top 50.
Six inactive or mostly inactive members projected to remain in the Top 50:
wdlove (#7), iGary (#15), eyelikeart (#17), jefhatfield (#33), MacBandit (#49).
Two inactive members dropping off the Top 50:
Lacero, clayj
Post rates
A member's six-month posting rate can be very different from his or her overall long-term rate. Obviously, a member who stops posting will have differing rates. For example, iGary's post rate has dropped to 0, but his long-term (overall) post rate is still 11.4 posts/day.
But active members change rates too. Let's look at both absolute and percentage increases or decreases in post rates among the members in the Top 50 projection:
Highest absolute increase in posts/day from long-term average to short-term (6-month) average:
PlaceofDis, with an long-term rate of 9.5 posts/day and a short-term rate of 18.0 posts/day (up 8.5 posts/day)
Next highest:
jsw, 15.6 posts/day long-term, 22.8 posts/day short-term (up 7.2 posts/day), devilot, 14.0 posts/day long-term, 20.5 posts/day short-term (up 6.5 posts/day)
Highest percentage increase in posts/day from long-term to short-term:
IJ Reilly, 3.3 posts/day long-term, 7.2 posts/day short-term (up 118%)
Next highest:
robbieduncan, 3.6 posts/day long-term, 7.5 posts/day short-term (up 108%)
These are the only members to more than double their post rate.
Highest absolute decrease in posts/day from long-term average to short-term (6-month) average:
Mr. Anderson, with an long-term rate of 11.0 posts/day and a short-term rate of 2.8 posts/day (down 8.2 posts/day)
Next highest:
Chundles, with an long-term rate of 10.7 posts/day and a short-term rate of 4.3 posts/day (down 6.4 posts/day)
Highest percentage decrease in posts/day from long-term to short-term:
MacBandit, 4.1 posts/day long-term, 0.1 posts/day short-term (down 98%)
Next highest:
Chip NoVaMac, 6.0 posts/day long-term, 0.4 posts/day short-term (down 93%)
Most consistent post rate:
iMeowbot (6.2 posts/day long-term, 6.5 posts/day short-term)
Next most consistent (tie):
raggedjimmi (10.6 posts/day long-term, 10.2 posts/day short-term), arn (3.4 posts/day long-term, 3.8 posts/day short-term)
Total posts
By this projection, by January 4, 2008 there will have been 590,016 total MacRumors posts by the Top 50 members, up 49,031 from 6 months ago.
The average Top 50 member will have 11,800 posts total, having made 1566.2 posts in the 6 months between now and then (8.6 posts/day).
The Top 50 certainly seem to have a lot to say!
I made the chart in the previous post by extrapolating member post counts 6 months into the future, based on current post counts (excluding posts that the forum system does not count) and post rates over the last 6 months.
The results are only estimates because members change their rate of posting, current members will join the list or drop out, and new members will appear.
They are overestimates for members who have had a recent flurry of posts and will "settle down" in the next months, and underestimates for members who have taken temporary breaks to visit the alleged "real world."
Changed members
Four members (the same as last time) are projected to join the Top 50 list:
Eidorian (#41), dcv (#43), mattscott306 (#46), IJ Reilly (#50)
None will be in the Top 25.
Four members projected to fall off the Top 50 list (current rank):
scem0 (#41), MrMacman (#42), Lacero (#45), clayj (#50)
All eight are/were near the bottom of the list, so none made great leaps in overall position. They merely crossed the magic 50-51 border.
Members next closest to the Top 50 list:
EricNau -- missed by 14 posts (0.08 posts/day)
MacNut -- missed by 187 posts (1.0 posts/day)
Random trivia
It is projected to take 7,330 posts to make the Top 50. Currently, it takes 6,441 posts.
jelloshotsrule: projected to have the lowest 5-digit-post-count
AlphaTech, one of the high posters early in the history of MacRumors, would still be in the Top 100.
Powerbook G5, once a prolific poster, and the one who will always be remembered as creator of the MacRumors pics! thread, would no longer make the Top 100.
The number of members with over 10,000 posts grows from 19 to 27. You need 7,330 posts (up from 6,441) to qualify for the Top 50. mad jew is the only member projected to have over 30,000 posts, while Mr. Anderson, jsw, and mkrishnan will each have over 20,000.
For the first time, more than half the members of the Top 50 will have 10,000 or more posts!
Changes in rank
The Top 3 (mad jew and Mr. Anderson and jsw) aren't budging, but mkrishnan should pass Doctor Q and ~Shard~ should pass wdlove.
bousozoku, who made it to a new high of slot #8, will be bumped back down by PlaceofDis and devilot, moving into #8 and #9. That leaves bousozoku as #10, where he seems to belong, if you remember his habit of alternating between #10 and #11 in past projections.
People who can't tell one blue forum member from another will be confused by the fact that edesignuk and Blue Velvet are one apart in the rankings, at #12 and #11, while edesignuk and iBlue, whose avatars often match each other, will remain apart in the rankings, despite iBlue's ascent from #40 to #29. Meanwhile, the forum member actually named blue will fail to make the Top 50, or the Top 5,000!
Rower_CPU, who posts now and then, will stay in the Top 20, and still won't have passed eyelikeart.
dmw007, who made the Top 20 since 6 months ago, will slip back out of the Top 20.
Smallest margin of victory:
Chip NoVaMac (#45) with a 1-post(!) lead over mattscott306 (#46). That's definitely a world's record.
Next smallest:
max_altitude (#35), who bested arn by 12 posts, and Chundles (#35), 16 posts ahead of nagromme (#36)
Largest margin of victory:
mad jew (#1), amassing an astounding 8,935-post lead over Mr. Anderson (#2)
Next largest:
jsw (#3), 2,708 posts ahead of mkrishnan (#4), and Doctor Q (#5), 2,255 posts ahead of ~Shard~
Highest projected rise in rank:
dynamicv (up 17 slots), beating WildCowboy's 15-slot jump from last time.
Next highest:
iBlue (up 11 slots), Jaffa Cake (up 9 slots), devilot (up 8 slots)
Highest projected loss in rank (while still on the Top 50):
MacBandit (down 12 slots)
Next highest:
Chip NoVaMac (down 10 slots), then vniow (down 8 slots) and eyelikeart (down 6 slots)
As mentioned above, the Top 3 are projected to retain their positions. The other member projected to retain position is nagromme (#36).
Excluded and inactive members
No banned or unregistered members are projected to remain in the Top 50.
Six inactive or mostly inactive members projected to remain in the Top 50:
wdlove (#7), iGary (#15), eyelikeart (#17), jefhatfield (#33), MacBandit (#49).
Two inactive members dropping off the Top 50:
Lacero, clayj
Post rates
A member's six-month posting rate can be very different from his or her overall long-term rate. Obviously, a member who stops posting will have differing rates. For example, iGary's post rate has dropped to 0, but his long-term (overall) post rate is still 11.4 posts/day.
But active members change rates too. Let's look at both absolute and percentage increases or decreases in post rates among the members in the Top 50 projection:
Highest absolute increase in posts/day from long-term average to short-term (6-month) average:
PlaceofDis, with an long-term rate of 9.5 posts/day and a short-term rate of 18.0 posts/day (up 8.5 posts/day)
Next highest:
jsw, 15.6 posts/day long-term, 22.8 posts/day short-term (up 7.2 posts/day), devilot, 14.0 posts/day long-term, 20.5 posts/day short-term (up 6.5 posts/day)
Highest percentage increase in posts/day from long-term to short-term:
IJ Reilly, 3.3 posts/day long-term, 7.2 posts/day short-term (up 118%)
Next highest:
robbieduncan, 3.6 posts/day long-term, 7.5 posts/day short-term (up 108%)
These are the only members to more than double their post rate.
Highest absolute decrease in posts/day from long-term average to short-term (6-month) average:
Mr. Anderson, with an long-term rate of 11.0 posts/day and a short-term rate of 2.8 posts/day (down 8.2 posts/day)
Next highest:
Chundles, with an long-term rate of 10.7 posts/day and a short-term rate of 4.3 posts/day (down 6.4 posts/day)
Highest percentage decrease in posts/day from long-term to short-term:
MacBandit, 4.1 posts/day long-term, 0.1 posts/day short-term (down 98%)
Next highest:
Chip NoVaMac, 6.0 posts/day long-term, 0.4 posts/day short-term (down 93%)
Most consistent post rate:
iMeowbot (6.2 posts/day long-term, 6.5 posts/day short-term)
Next most consistent (tie):
raggedjimmi (10.6 posts/day long-term, 10.2 posts/day short-term), arn (3.4 posts/day long-term, 3.8 posts/day short-term)
Total posts
By this projection, by January 4, 2008 there will have been 590,016 total MacRumors posts by the Top 50 members, up 49,031 from 6 months ago.
The average Top 50 member will have 11,800 posts total, having made 1566.2 posts in the 6 months between now and then (8.6 posts/day).
The Top 50 certainly seem to have a lot to say!
So far...
And thanks again to Doctor Q who always does a wonderful job with these stats!
i wasn't mentioned by name, but that'll change. one day, i'll crack the top...200.
baby steps. then we'll talk top 50.
i wasn't mentioned by name, but that'll change. one day, i'll crack the top...200.
Better get posting, I'm gonna pass you soon! (I've been averaging over 20 posts per day lately.)
my post rate hasn't been up to par lately, being sidetracked by the iphone and all, but i still own you on overall post rate. we'll see who cracks top 50 first.
if ever...
my post rate hasn't been up to par lately, being sidetracked by the iphone and all, but i still own you on overall post rate. we'll see who cracks top 50 first.
What can I say, I was inactive for a couple months when I first joined. I'll be in the top 50 eventually.
wow, it's amazing looking at mad jew's slope compared to everyone else's. how does he do that?