I don't get it. Aren't sales of TV shows way more profitable than selling ad time?
If you watch an episode online, how much does the advertiser pay the network for that one viewing? If you watch over cable or OTA network affiliate, how much does the studio get for each viewer?
Cause if you sell it via iTunes, they get 70 cents on the dollar, with no infrastructure overhead to serve the bits to the user. That's gotta be better than what an advertiser would pay, right? Who would pay the network a dollar for me to avert my eyes and turn off the volume 4 times during an airing of Caprica?
But I don't actually know any of the numbers, so I'm just talking out my ass here.
Let's see if I can help. There was
$48 Billion in US TV ad revenues collected last year (a down year). Let's assume about 180 million Americans (can) watch TV.
$48B/180M= ad revenue per viewer at about $267.
At $.70 per $1 episode purchased, replacing the ad revenue would involve the average viewer needing to buy about 381 programs in a year. Would you buy 381 TV shows each year at a $1 each? And if you have a family, just multiply 381 by the number of other viewers in your household.
If the rumored subscription model rolled out, the perception of it seems to lean toward a possible cable/satt replacement model, meaning we could dump cable/satt and get our shows via this new, direct option with Apple acting as sole middle man. If we assume the studios make nothing but ad revenue (something I know is not true), then a subscription model of only a little more than $22/month would replace the ad revenue per subscriber. It's interesting that Apple's rumored subscription product is rumored at around $30/month, as those 2 numbers seem to fit pretty nicely with the 30% cut that Apple likes.
However, here's just some key flaws:
- no great way to cover local programming within this package (best option is put up an antenna for local channels, but that doesn't work- or is not desirable- for everyone)
- no great way to cover live events like sports, etc (one can argue that it could all be streamed, but what do you think would happen to the Internet if we all tuned in for March Madness or the Superbowl at the same time on our broadband devices?)
- these companies make money beyond just the advertising revenue; for example, it's well known that ESPN usually commands 2-4+ dollars per subscriber; as soon as you let this math into the mix, all of the above gets very messy as a potential "win" (cable killing) arrangement)
- that $22/month is based on just one viewer. If there are more than 1 viewers in your household, multiply that $22/month by number of viewers to get the replacement subscription level for your home
...and there are many others.
So, as should be obvious, from the business end of things, the ideal appears to:
- keep their ad revenue AND get paid a subscription, OR
- price their ad-free content at a premium so that the ad-included option is always a better deal (which is what we have now)
Lastly, factor in who "owns" the broadband pipes through which this cable/satt killer option is delivered, and you can imagine what THEY would do if their very lucrative cable/satt cash cow started feeling the (lost revenue) pain of group shift to these kinds of options flowing through the very same pipe, and you can guess what would happen to your broadband bill. Why do you think there are virtually no competitors for broadband in pretty much any area of the country?