I have worked for one of these companies as a vehicle operator and it was interesting to say the least. I wasn't expecting much and figured there were going to be limitations but I was still amazed by the limitations. The cars can not just drive anywhere. The cars are restricted to driving along routes. The routes need to be mapped in order for the autonomous controls to see where the stop lights, signs, crosswalks, etc are on the route. It can't tell what a stop light is without the program telling the car what it is and where. The cars drop out of autonomous mode a lot for no reason and with reason. The reasons being it can not properly determine what it sees or what is happening. As a vehicle operator you have to be on full alert at all times ready to take over the controls. The movement of the vehicle in autonomous mode is very jerky. When accelerating it wants to get to the speed limit as fast as it can just to hit the breaks at the correct speed. Breaking is also harsh as it wants to break early but with no gradual deceleration. These vehicles are very iffy even with a driver behind the wheel I cant see how they are anywhere close to having these work without one.
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U.S. House Committee Unanimously Approves Measure to Ease Restrictions on Autonomous Vehicles
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You won't have to worry about that once Apple gets their "bounce back" patent for autonomous driving vehicles ...
https://www.google.com/patents/US7469381
I live in major cities. There's no question that my focus is to the effect on population centers and rural experiences will be quite different but rural populations are also shrinking. The 2010 census had urban population at about 80% (and continuing to increase every census). To be fair I think there's a higher population density than just "not rural" needed to support some of these concepts so let's exclude urban centers from the definition and just focus on urban (by census bureau standards "urban" is larger than "urban center") which still leaves us a little over 70% of the population. And that will only increase.
I do drive, in fact my partner and I have multiple vehicles, more than we need as some are just "fun." I like cars, I like driving, I also realize that I am (willfully) throwing away a large sum of money on depreciation (even more so because I buy new) just for the privilege of these big pieces of equipment to sit in my garage going largely unused. If we look at usage across all of my vehicles they are maybe used 5% of the time. I'm using an hour of drive time per day and not accounting for time I spend traveling (as in out of town) and that's across all my vehicles not "each". That's a very generous number and likely inflated, I would not be surprised at all to find the real number is more like 1-2%. Further, that 5% is mostly spent on uninspiring transportation, e.g. sitting in traffic or driving to a restaurant or activity, heading on an errand or to the gym. These are not "fun" drives by any means. I could easily see myself subscribing to a TaaS provider with a decent SLA (i.e. guaranteed to arrive within 8-10 minutes max). With that sort of timing I can make spur of the moment decisions to go somewhere at will and the ride will arrive by the time I've gathered my things and put on my shoes.
I don't think comparisons to taxis are apt. Taxi service has always been subpar. You need to make a phone call (outside of cities that is) and a dispatcher will tell you that the ride will arrive in 40 minutes which may or may not happen. The prices are inflated due to artificial constrictions on service with government limits on medallions. That same constriction has allowed providers to deliver horrible service without fear of loss of business. All of that is coming home to roost with ride sharing now eating their lunch although you still do have the variability of drivers in the ride sharing sector (some try to screen out rides they don't want or accept the ride and then take 10 minutes to leave wherever they are and start their journey to pick you up). With the elimination of the human factor that gets even better still. Again, leave the rural areas out of the discussion for a moment because the lower density makes ubiquitous availability challenging but within a city or suburb big data can make TaaS readily available within a reasonable SLA to everyone and for far less than the cost of owning your own vehicle. That's a compelling situation and I expect a big majority to at least reduce their own vehicles (e.g. single car household rather than two or more) and at least a simple majority or urban dwellers to cease owning a vehicle all together. I feel I'm being conservative with those statements but time will tell.
I already make enough use of Uber that a monthly flat rate would make sense for me. I use it whenever I travel - which is frequent - and even when at home if I want to have a cocktail or if I know the parking situation will be challenging and no valet exists. Make that autonomous and offer TaaS packages and I'll definitely be on board.
As to parents, I'm confident of a solution. Maybe first time parents and helicopter parents will be in the subgroup that continues to buy their own vehicles outright. Perhaps there's a way to collapse infant and toddler car seats into the vehicle itself and pulling a lever or clicking a button will make it available. I'm sure there are many ways to solve that issue. People that have gotten over the "oh my God my baby is so fragile everything must be 100% perfect and sterile" won't have a problem with that (news flash, babies are about as far from sterile as it gets, they are little virus incubators that share their pathogens with all the other babies they come in contact with and spread culture samples across every surface they touch
good thing for them they are cute). Off topic but the Freakonomics guys did a good piece about the efficacy of car seats beyond the youngest ages; spoiler, they're actually more likely to cause harm in some types of crashes and fair no better in any type. Tying it back in though, a problem with child car seats is that they are not designed in concert with the vehicle manufacturer, having an in-built option could even be a step in the right direction.People have highly emotional attachments to vehicles, I'll include myself in that. That's changing though, younger generations are much less likely to see driving as a necessity and just view transportation as utility rather than activity. The romantic notion of the vehicle being gateway to freedom and expression is on the decline. I think this transition will happen much more quickly than most people expect.
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Plus neither taxis nor Uber even exist where I am, and I'm only thirty miles west of NYC
Depending on the city, that's already happened. Heck, I know a lot of native New Yorkers who never had a driver's license.
See, that's where I disagree with you guys. As a rural or even suburban dweller, I sure as heck am not going to wait even five minutes for a public vehicle to show up, when I can jump in a private vehicle and go... with it right there waiting for me when I finished whatever I'm doing. The convenience is just too great to give up.
E.g. Christmas shopping would become a nightmare if I couldn't store stuff in my car between trips. Ditto for every day trips carrying the kids and their friends.
So unless it becomes far cheaper... and I can't see how that would happen to normal people... I just can't see a mass switch away from privately owned cars. It didn't happen with public transportation and it's not happening just because cars will be able to drive themselves.
I think even my mother and my wife, neither of which can drive any more, would far prefer to buy their own autonomous vehicles.
Well, we'll find out in a few years what the trend will be. Should be interesting!
To be fair 30 miles outside of NYC is the boondocks, people don't realize that unless they've gone upstate but there is wilderness just outside the city. I was planning a trip with a friend upstate once and after realizing there were no major hotels in the area I went to AirBnB and I literally found someone listing a chicken coop. Upstate and NYC are two different worlds.
Shopping, we already have the option to purchase (even in brick and mortar) and have things delivered to our homes. That could easily expand. When I'm doing a lot of shopping I don't want to bring everything to my vehicle and into my home already, I have it delivered.
You make a good point about control, and then draw an inverted conclusion. It's true, most people are more comfortable being a poor driver behind the wheel than being a passenger driven by a skilled, careful driver. This is no reflection on the likelihood of them arriving at their destination unharmed, but of the only marginally rational need to be in control.
BTW, the vast majority of aviation accidents are attributed mainly or in part to pilot error. Decidedly an "act of person."
The biggest long term hurdles to robocars are the governments. This is a welcome development.
A technology being useful does not automatically indicate that it be mandated. In the case of the Luddites, they demanded the very opposite - that no progress be allowed.
Again, have your autonomous transport and enjoy it, just don't force me into the same slot. Way above technology, I value real freedom - not that which is merely granted.
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Which is why the phone is only switched on when I want to be found - as in an emergency (the reason for the phone in the first place).
Javascript, and everything else off, unless I want it on.
As for not being able to do what I want, see, they've already started to turn me into a drone.
My presence here is to try to keep up with Mac news only.
Recently, way too much emphasis has been placed on autonomous vehicles. I believe the driving force is, as always, the money at stake. Autonomous vehicles are NOT ready to be put out on our streets. Much more has got to be done via testing at closed circuit test facilities so that when something does go wrong the public is not in danger. It seems to me that, given the special legislative treatment, any accident involving an autonomous vehicle that the vehicle itself will somehow be exonerated.
Joshua Brown died last year in a Tesla semi-autonomous vehicle, the first to die in an autonomous vehicle. His death was attributed to inattention and distraction, ignoring the vehicle's warnings. The vehicle itself could not distinguish a tractor trailer from the bright background and impacted the trailer at 74mph. It was reported that Brown was so reliant and comfortable with the autonomous operation that he decided to watch a movie.
If you're going to sit behind the wheel of any vehicle, DRIVE THE CAR/TRUCK at ALL TIMES! It is incumbent upon every vehicle operator to be fully alert and capable of vehicle operation and safe driving. Truly autonomous vehicles are going to lead to complacency and inattentive vehicle operation relying instead on software to solve all operational problems.
It is my estimation that either all vehicles are autonomous or none are. In an autonomous operation all vehicles should be aware of every other vehicle in proximity to one another. Traffic signals, street signs, street and highway markings, road hazards need a fail-safe identifier and not just a software interpretation. The inherent problems with autonomous vehicle operation are infinite but perhaps in another twenty to thirty years many problems may be solved. Just not now...
Joshua Brown died last year in a Tesla semi-autonomous vehicle, the first to die in an autonomous vehicle. His death was attributed to inattention and distraction, ignoring the vehicle's warnings. The vehicle itself could not distinguish a tractor trailer from the bright background and impacted the trailer at 74mph. It was reported that Brown was so reliant and comfortable with the autonomous operation that he decided to watch a movie.
If you're going to sit behind the wheel of any vehicle, DRIVE THE CAR/TRUCK at ALL TIMES! It is incumbent upon every vehicle operator to be fully alert and capable of vehicle operation and safe driving. Truly autonomous vehicles are going to lead to complacency and inattentive vehicle operation relying instead on software to solve all operational problems.
It is my estimation that either all vehicles are autonomous or none are. In an autonomous operation all vehicles should be aware of every other vehicle in proximity to one another. Traffic signals, street signs, street and highway markings, road hazards need a fail-safe identifier and not just a software interpretation. The inherent problems with autonomous vehicle operation are infinite but perhaps in another twenty to thirty years many problems may be solved. Just not now...
Those miles are being driven under very specific conditions and in environments in which the average fatality rate is much lower than the overall average fatality rate (which is approximately 1 per 100 million miles for human drivers). They are also being monitored by trained human drivers that intervene when necessary. Trained humans + AV technologies will be safer than just humans, but that's not what we're talking about here.
There's so much misinformation out there that I almost feel compelled to write an article on it...but right now my research agenda is too saturated.
Fatality rates alone are an inadequate means of determining traffic safety. Non-fatal accidents and property damage must also be counted, or conclusions are going to be hopelessly compromised by measurement bias.
We should make it hard for them (bad drivers) too.
What we need more than autonomous single car driving is a move toward ubiquitous public transportation. That way we could eventually have truly safe automated transportation ON TRACKS (road driving has infinite variables, too much for any robot), and all road driving could be left to skilled, trained, instinctual drivers with machine assistance.
I disagree with this. The priority should be current safety, not improving the tech more quickly.
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This is a huge concern for me with regard to this technology.
There is no way most people are going to remain fully alert. Even for those that are diligent, they will take a moment to "kick their brain into gear" and react.
There'll be that, "Oh **** it's kicked back to me" moment, followed by "What the heck's going on?" and "Oh this is the problem" before "Right, better do this" and finally action being taken.
The extra time it takes for that to happen might be the difference between an accident or the avoidance of one.
With the current manual cars and an alert driver, you don't have that same awakening, evaluation and thought sequence before an avoidance action.
How could you really know this? Autonomous cars certainly act as though they have a will to live, in the same way I see that will in humans (including myself). Although it really doesn't matter if you don't call it "personal", or "will", or whatever, if the end result is that you're statistically safer in an autonomous car.