If all carriers move to this, how much will this impact the new iPhone sales? I don't see the exact same number of people shelling out hundreds of dollars for the new new device. Something has to give.
Honestly, I don't think the outrage will be at Apple -- rather at the carriers for deceiving their customers for so long. I mean, when you bought your iPhone or Android or Windows phone, or whatever, you thought you were saving $450, you were told you were saving $450, and until recently -- there wasn't a two tier pricing structure for service. Everyone just paid the same price; So you couldn't figure it out. But, I suppose it is equally as likely that customers might still remain ignorant and, instead, just think the carrier is screwing them over.
But, that said, unless I am mistaken, I don't think I have seen that full price financing, be it AT&T Next, VZW Edge, or whatever has slowed sales down. I gather that is probably because all the customer sees is that they are getting lower service prices as a result. Sure they're paying "more" for their phone. But paying also paying less for cellular service. So it's likely an even trade to them.
Which, to me, seems just about right. Because nothing is really actually changing. You've always been paying full price for your phones (be they iPhones or not). Unless, there was a literal sale being offered though Best Buy, some MVNO, or the carrier for whatever reason.
This certainly makes sense to me. That said, my crystal ball tells me it won't be Apple that will be doing the giving. Imagine how much more second hand market would get a bump if all the carriers jumped on this bandwagon.
It will, at least, very likely increase the used sale price. Since individuals won't be under a mistaken assumption that $200 is all they need to sell their previous gen iPhone (or android) for to get a "free" upgrade.
I don't see everyone moving this way yet. If it's enough to make people switch carriers - and I believe it is - Verizon will bring subsidies back. They just have to bleed for a bit.
Eh... subsidies are dead, IMO. I'd say on the balance, customers don't want to be locked in carrier service contracts. Now, true, trading the carrier service contract for a financing contract on a phone still means your "locked in a contract". But, IMO, it's much less of an obstacle. Because either the carrier you are going to (right now, only T-Mo) will buy out and pay for your phone contract (because the phone is resellable) or you can pay the remainder of your balance and just have the phone unlocked for use on the new carrier. Or worse case, if the phone is incompatible, you just sell the phone to reclaim some cost.
You couldn't reclaim any of the ETF cost to cancel a carrier service contract. Unless you were moving to T-Mobile.