Good thing your job has nothing to do with analyzing data, because you'd be out of a job. RIM reported a loss in subscribers in Q3. Every quarter last year was a loss. In fact, they bled 2.5 billion YoY, leaving them in the situation they are now, and marketing of BB10 hasn't even been figured in yet! RIM is using left over parts from last years Android phones to keep costs down, but this also means they will have nothing to highlight for consumers.
The question is, what does RIM bring to the table? Why should a consumer buy Bb10 phones (that will be inferior in every way to flagship Android phones and WP8)? Will carriers have any monetary incentive to push a BB10 phone over an Android phone?
While there is no doubt RIM will sell to hardcore fans and the Canadian gov't, their ship has sailed in nearly every other country. I doubt RIM will sell more than 15 million this quarter, before dropping significantly the following quarter and simply dying off by end of 2014.