Waiting Dilemna

[Merackon]

Hi all,

Given the fact that the Intel roadmap appears to be rather screwed up at the moment with regards to the release times for the new generation of their laptop processors, would it be prudent to just buy a new MacBook Pro now...I am on the early 2011 version and could do with an upgrade.

It would be useful to note that I am in the market for the 15 inch version, and don't think that the dGPU would be worth paying for in my case; no gaming other than maybe LoL or such, on the go photo processing and editing, using Lightroom, but no video editing and have a powerful desktop for doing any CAD work and major major photo processing...this is of course including the general school work that A-Levels brings....

Any thoughts on the matter are welcome and personal experiences of course

Thanks in advance

Jack

 

[leman]

If your current machine is a C2D, I'd upgrade now, if it's a later model, I'll wait.

 

[Barney63]

I'd buy now, there is nothing exciting on the horizon.
It will also give you plenty of time to transfer stuff over before your exams.

Barney

 

[Merackon]

I'd buy now, there is nothing exciting on the horizon.
It will also give you plenty of time to transfer stuff over before your exams.

Barney

By nothing exciting what do you refer to?

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If your current machine is a C2D, I'd upgrade now, if it's a later model, I'll wait.

It was the first i7, it's just becoming a bit of a pain to move around all the time, and considering if it would really be worth the wait...what do you envisage the next generation of MBP's having over the current ones?

 

[Barney63]

The only upgrade is only speculation and at best it will be a minor cpu speed increase.

Barney

 

[snaky69]

By nothing exciting what do you refer to?

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It was the first i7, it's just becoming a bit of a pain to move around all the time, and considering if it would really be worth the wait...what do you envisage the next generation of MBP's having over the current ones?

The new MBP's don't offer a dramatic performance increase over yours(It would be a leap if you were still on older Core 2 Duo technology). What makes you think you need a new computer anyway? What exactly is running too slowly for you?

 

[john123]

OP, I think you have to ask yourself a few questions, in order:
• Is money no object? If not, then buy now and upgrade to Broadwell whenever it comes out, sell your old one, and take a hit of a few hundred bucks. If money does matter, keep going...
• Can you get by for (up to) another year? The significant improvement promised by Broadwell (especially in graphics) will be rather nice. If you can't or otherwise don't want to wait, keep going...
• Do you feel like playing a guessing game lottery this year? Some people are convinced that Maxwell graphics will come in a release this year. I think those people are letting wishful thinking get in the way of objective business analysis, but that isn't to say it's impossible either (just that it isn't a sure thing). So if you're comfortable waiting potentially up to 6 months, you could do that--but with the understanding that waiting may only get you a minor processor speed bump.

----------

The new MBP's don't offer a dramatic performance increase over yours(It would be a leap if you were still on older Core 2 Duo technology). What makes you think you need a new computer anyway? What exactly is running too slowly for you?

I somewhat disagree with your assessment of the performance increase, mostly because you're focused on the CPU side exclusively. I'm assuming the OP has a HDD, so that's one big benefit he'll gain. The CPUs are faster, and the everyday experience is improved (I've owned just about every revision of PB/MBP over the last dozen years or so), but I agree with you that it isn't dramatic. That said, there's also a benefit in the overall experience (e.g., Retina display and the possibly higher resolution for the OP, form factor, etc.)

----------

The only upgrade is only speculation and at best it will be a minor cpu speed increase.

Barney

I tend to agree with you that a minor CPU speed increase is most likely, but I don't think it's fair to say that will be it "at best." There's a non-zero chance of us seeing Maxwell later this year, or some other small changes. I think folks on both sides of this debate have been too deterministic in their thinking (or at least their statements) when, in reality, this is a probabilistic assessment.

 

[snaky69]

OP, I think you have to ask yourself a few questions, in order:
• Is money no object? If not, then buy now and upgrade to Broadwell whenever it comes out, sell your old one, and take a hit of a few hundred bucks. If money does matter, keep going...
• Can you get by for (up to) another year? The significant improvement promised by Broadwell (especially in graphics) will be rather nice. If you can't or otherwise don't want to wait, keep going...
• Do you feel like playing a guessing game lottery this year? Some people are convinced that Maxwell graphics will come in a release this year. I think those people are letting wishful thinking get in the way of objective business analysis, but that isn't to say it's impossible either (just that it isn't a sure thing). So if you're comfortable waiting potentially up to 6 months, you could do that--but with the understanding that waiting may only get you a minor processor speed bump.

----------



I somewhat disagree with your assessment of the performance increase, mostly because you're focused on the CPU side exclusively. I'm assuming the OP has a HDD, so that's one big benefit he'll gain. The CPUs are faster, and the everyday experience is improved (I've owned just about every revision of PB/MBP over the last dozen years or so), but I agree with you that it isn't dramatic. That said, there's also a benefit in the overall experience (e.g., Retina display and the possibly higher resolution for the OP, form factor, etc.)

----------



I tend to agree with you that a minor CPU speed increase is most likely, but I don't think it's fair to say that will be it "at best." There's a non-zero chance of us seeing Maxwell later this year, or some other small changes. I think folks on both sides of this debate have been too deterministic in their thinking (or at least their statements) when, in reality, this is a probabilistic assessment.

A SSD is easily added to the unibody MBP, so I don't think a full-blown (and more expensive) upgrade to the rMBP brings enough performance to the table to be worth the price hike compared to say, a nice samsung 840.

In day to day tasks, the rMBP will not feel much if any faster than his current MBP if it is equipped with a SSD.

If the OP likes to peg his CPU and GPU at 100% often though, then the upgrade starts to make sense, especially if the OP uses the computer to generate revenue.

 

[john123]

A SSD is easily added to the unibody MBP, so I don't think a full-blown (and more expensive) upgrade to the rMBP brings enough performance to the table to be worth the price hike compared to say, a nice samsung 840.

In day to day tasks, the rMBP will not feel much if any faster than his current MBP if it is equipped with a SSD.

If the OP likes to peg his CPU and GPU at 100% often though, then the upgrade starts to make sense, especially if the OP uses the computer to generate revenue.

While true, it's also the case that adding a third-party SSD to his older model is throwing money at an older computer. For some people, that makes sense. For others, it doesn't. As stated before, I do disagree with your assessment that the 2011+SSD will feel about the same speed in day-to-day tasks. I had a Crucial SSD in my late 2011 that I sold prior to getting the first rMBP, and for me the difference was noticeable. Not huge, but noticeable. I had no regrets (other than giving up my antiglare screen, but that was offset by the long-awaited ability to run at 1920x1200). But that's me, and every user is different.

Another thing I failed to mention before, in addition to the screen and form factor, is USB 3.0 ports. That's one of those little things that I'm grateful to have these days.

Ultimately, though, we're getting into idiosyncratic stuff here. X matters (or doesn't matter) to me; while Y matters (or doesn't matter) to you; while Z matters (or doesn't matter) to another person. And that's why I think the OP needs to ground his decision in the sort of sequential questions I laid out in my original post here. He's not asking whether to upgrade (which is the biggest reason I don't think your suggestion of a third party SSD flies), but instead when.

 

[Naimfan]

OP:

Without knowing which model and specs you have, and without an accurate idea of what you do on it, it is impossible to say. Because you're in the market for a 15", the reasonable assumption is that you have a 15" now. If you have an early 2011 quad core 15", you're better off financially upgrading the RAM and HD to a SSD given the price trend on SSDs.

Snaky is more correct - you won't see a noticeable increase in processing power with a retina compared to an Early 2011, hence upgrading your existing machine making sense from the little we know.

If, on the other hand, you have a Mid-2010 dual core, you might well see a noticeable improvement.

Or, if you just want to change what you have, then buy it now - there is not a major upgrade likely until late this year or early next.

 

[Merackon]

Sorry all, I normally post the specs on the other websites that I use...

• 
  15" 1680x1050
  i7 2635
  AMD 6490m
  4GB 1333MHz
  128GB Toshiba SSD

This machine is built to order from Apple and has not been changed since in terms of the hardware.

I am fairly hardware savvy, and have made changes through the operating system where possible to speed up the computer to where it was 3 years ago, I have kept the device in flawless order personally, but cannot speak for the times at school when my bag has been dropped with this inside resulting in fairly significant dents and deformities to the bottom cover, where it should sit flush to the rest of the body it now waves around on the right side.

Battery life:
3 hours at most, with me forcing it into integrated for the majority of the time that I owned the machine using the GFX card status toolbar utility.

SSD speed:
Whilst I am most aware that I can resurrect the machine in part by changing to a new SSD, I would only get a Jackson Ridge Intel SSD because I know first hand how solid they are in terms of stress tested reliability (another area where I am very strong for). In this case I would not want to spend another £200 on a SSD when that is 1/3 of the value of the machine, same for the battery, Apple have said that I would have to pay for that to be replaced this long after the purchase.

CPU performance:
Whilst I am most aware that the difference in terms of the processing speed in day to day tasks would be negligible if I were to upgrade, to put it into perspective the rate of transcoding my iTunes Library went from 120x in Jan last year, to 30-50x in December, and the processing times for a lot of the applications that I use have also increased noticeably.

GPU performance:
Simply doesn't really cut it anymore, though this is not an overused feature, I am forced to wait until I get access to my desktops SLI array before I can do any pretty 3d work, regardless of the application being used.

Other:
I know the RAM upgrade would help me given the number of processes and applications I run at the same time, I am hesitant to drop more money, and would also in the process feel compelled to upgrade the SSD also.

For many you will probably think I am one of the following; ignorant, spoilt prat etc, if so please say, I find it hard to get offended online these days...

Please post your thoughts,

Thanks in advance,

Jack

 

[snaky69]

Sorry all, I normally post the specs on the other websites that I use...

• 
  15" 1680x1050
  i7 2635
  AMD 6490m
  4GB 1333MHz
  128GB Toshiba SSD

This machine is built to order from Apple and has not been changed since in terms of the hardware.

I am fairly hardware savvy, and have made changes through the operating system where possible to speed up the computer to where it was 3 years ago, I have kept the device in flawless order personally, but cannot speak for the times at school when my bag has been dropped with this inside resulting in fairly significant dents and deformities to the bottom cover, where it should sit flush to the rest of the body it now waves around on the right side.

Battery life:
3 hours at most, with me forcing it into integrated for the majority of the time that I owned the machine using the GFX card status toolbar utility.

SSD speed:
Whilst I am most aware that I can resurrect the machine in part by changing to a new SSD, I would only get a Jackson Ridge Intel SSD because I know first hand how solid they are in terms of stress tested reliability (another area where I am very strong for). In this case I would not want to spend another £200 on a SSD when that is 1/3 of the value of the machine, same for the battery, Apple have said that I would have to pay for that to be replaced this long after the purchase.

CPU performance:
Whilst I am most aware that the difference in terms of the processing speed in day to day tasks would be negligible if I were to upgrade, to put it into perspective the rate of transcoding my iTunes Library went from 120x in Jan last year, to 30-50x in December, and the processing times for a lot of the applications that I use have also increased noticeably.

GPU performance:
Simply doesn't really cut it anymore, though this is not an overused feature, I am forced to wait until I get access to my desktops SLI array before I can do any pretty 3d work, regardless of the application being used.

Other:
I know the RAM upgrade would help me given the number of processes and applications I run at the same time, I am hesitant to drop more money, and would also in the process feel compelled to upgrade the SSD also.

For many you will probably think I am one of the following; ignorant, spoilt prat etc, if so please say, I find it hard to get offended online these days...

Please post your thoughts,

Thanks in advance,

Jack

I was by no means calling you spoilt or any of that. It's just that some people on this forum seem to think they need a new computer when often the one they have is quite capable.

Your iTunes transcoding speed going down is quite weird, this is mainly processor bound, and processor speed doesn't just drop like that with time. They either work or they don't. Something's not right here.


In the end, you are the judge of what you should do with your money. If you have enough for a new computer now, go right ahead, nothing spectacular is bound to come out in the near future.

 

[Merackon]

I was by no means calling you spoilt or any of that. It's just that some people on this forum seem to think they need a new computer when often the one they have is quite capable.

Your iTunes transcoding speed going down is quite weird, this is mainly processor bound, and processor speed doesn't just drop like that with time. They either work or they don't. Something's not right here.


In the end, you are the judge of what you should do with your money. If you have enough for a new computer now, go right ahead, nothing spectacular is bound to come out in the near future.

My main worry was something of great note would come in the future, but it seems that the general consensus is that for the time being, at least until the end of the year, there is almost likely to be nothing that would make me want to harm myself for buying at some point in the future...though do you think that it would be prudent to wait until the WWDC before committing?

 

[Naimfan]

[D]oyou think that it would be prudent to wait until the WWDC before committing?

No.

 

[Merackon]

I was by no means calling you spoilt or any of that. It's just that some people on this forum seem to think they need a new computer when often the one they have is quite capable.

Your iTunes transcoding speed going down is quite weird, this is mainly processor bound, and processor speed doesn't just drop like that with time. They either work or they don't. Something's not right here.


In the end, you are the judge of what you should do with your money. If you have enough for a new computer now, go right ahead, nothing spectacular is bound to come out in the near future.

Oh, by the way, I wasn't accusing you of trying to insult, but past experience has been most amusing and was just trying to prevent the trolls out there from coming onto the thread to attempt to cause mayhem, you have been most helpful

----------

No.

For the same reasons as above I am guessing?

 

[Naimfan]

For the same reasons as above I am guessing?

Yes.

Nothing coming from Intel that allows for any type of major update until late this year or early next.

 

[Merackon]

Thank you everyone for your input, I shall have one final think about this in the coming days weeks before committing, but given the circumstances I am heavily leaning in the direction of just simply going for a new computer.

 

[accountforit]

A SSD is easily added to the unibody MBP, so I don't think a full-blown (and more expensive) upgrade to the rMBP brings enough performance to the table to be worth the price hike compared to say, a nice samsung 840.

In day to day tasks, the rMBP will not feel much if any faster than his current MBP if it is equipped with a SSD.

If the OP likes to peg his CPU and GPU at 100% often though, then the upgrade starts to make sense, especially if the OP uses the computer to generate revenue.

I agree to some extent. An SSD can speed up performance and extend the life of an older machine. However, I too weighed my options a few months back and to me upgrading is a waste of money (especially if you are going to buy the best SSD - Samsung 840 Pro). The secondary market is not paying premiums for aftermarket installed SSD's. They are still paying for storage. Therefore, spending $400 or so for a good sized high quality SSD seems like a waste of money when you can gain a lot more by selling your current model and adding any additional money needed.

I would suggest buying now, but buying slightly used or refurbished.

 

[stevemiller]

I have the early 2011 15" 2.2ghz mbp, and my late 2013 15" 2.6ghz is scheduled to arrive Monday.

I don't think it is a cut and dry situation either way, though. In my case, my computer is critical to my job, and my work makes use of every ouce of processing power. I'd already upgraded to 16gb and an ssd from the get go, but the newest models still easily outpace it on real world rendering and encoding tasks. I wanted to hold out initially, and probably still would if it was for casual use, but I decided getting the productivity benefits now is worth more to me.

Edit: for the record, the newest one is still going to have some big shoes to fill; the 2011 MacBook Pro IMHO has been the best computer I've owned. It felt like the most substantial upgrade at the time - almost triple my previous computers performance) and has served me darn near flawlessly for three years (though I'm hearing issues are starting to creep in from other users).

 

[rdowty]

I'd say they're not getting any cheaper or better anytime soon. Now is probably as good a time as I've ever seen to get a model and not have to worry about buyers remorse anytime soon.

 

[mcarling]

would it be prudent to just buy a new MacBook Pro now...I am on the early 2011 version and could do with an upgrade.

Yes, now would be an excellent time to get a new MacBook Pro. There might be a very slight refresh this year (comparable to the February 2013 refresh) but any significant improvements to the MBP are at least a year away.

 

[Davidkoh]

What might be worth thinking about is if Apple will jump on Maxwell for their dedicated GPU, if that was the model you were after. That is most likely the only big performance update that might happen before Broadwell.