Waiting for ARM, bought 16" MBP anyway

[macduke]

I've been waiting for ARM for a long time but finally gave in today and bought the 16" MBP, but saved some money getting it refurbished from Apple. I had an old 15" MBP through my old job so I had to return that early this year. The more I thought about it, the more I recalled various past issues with first-gen hardware. Then I realized that it might be a couple years until third-party software is optimized to the point where the new, faster hardware actually makes a significant difference. And for myself, specifically, I'm not sure if the VMs I use will be supported right away.

I usually max most things out and keep my Macs for a long time, but this time I went a little more middle of the road. I still got the 2.4GHz i9 (because there wasn't a 2.3GHz refurb), but went with only 32GB of RAM, 2TB SSD and the 5500M 8GB. It will be a secondary machine to my iMac for when I'm tired of being stuck in my studio, which is in my basement, has no windows and has been wearing me down during the pandemic. Heading into the autumn with the days shortening already, I'm tired of being stuck inside on this thing day and night. My only concern is the ARM Macs tanking the future resale value of the 16" MBP. Hopefully that doesn't happen but wouldn't be surprised if it does.

Anyway, just wanted to share my thought process in case anyone else is trying to decide like I was. I've been agonizing for a while trying to make this decision and it feels good to just be done with it. I'm sure it will be great.

 

[AustinIllini]

you're still good. The Apple Silicon transition will take some time and you'll get quite a bit of support.

 

[iDuel]

I just did the same thing myself. I originally was going to wait it out and purchase once an ARM one was available, however the current situation forced my hand so I purchased a base model 16" which will more than satisfy my needs. It's a great machine. The keyboard and screen are great. I love the Touch Bar! Honestly, there probably won't be an ARM 16" for another year as I assume Apple is going to transition the lower end machines first.

Thanks for posting this though, glad someone had the same thought process as I did.

 

[Natzoo]

I wouldn't want the 1st or 2nd gen Apple Silicon chips anyways, let the kinks get fixed. Will keep my 2018 15" for a couple more years (or until the keyboard warranty expires).

OP, I think the 16" will be refreshed again this year. Since they didn't do it yet, maybe a minor spec bump?

 

[macduke]

I just did the same thing myself. I originally was going to wait it out and purchase once an ARM one was available, however the current situation forced my hand so I purchased a base model 16" which will more than satisfy my needs. It's a great machine. The keyboard and screen are great. I love the Touch Bar! Honestly, there probably won't be an ARM 16" for another year as I assume Apple is going to transition the lower end machines first.

Thanks for posting this though, glad someone had the same thought process as I did.

That was exactly my thought. It might be announced at WWDC and come out in the summer but could very well not be until autumn 2021. And nothing is for certain with the autumn/winter looming during a pandemic.

I wouldn't want the 1st or 2nd gen Apple Silicon chips anyways, let the kinks get fixed. Will keep my 2018 15" for a couple more years (or until the keyboard warranty expires).

OP, I think the 16" will be refreshed again this year. Since they didn't do it yet, maybe a minor spec bump?

Yeah, skip at least the first gen. Third gen would be preferable. I might do second depending how things go with the first, or buy a refurb 2nd gen if all seems well.

As for an update this year, they already updated the top end GPU option. Don’t the new 14nm+++ or whatever Intel chips run hotter or something because they need more power for the speed to increase? Idk. The main benefit would be a potentially lower price for RAM and SSDs, but it would take a few more months for refurbs to be available and those can be difficult to find in the proper spec. If they’re updated this autumn I’m probably looking at late winter or early spring before I can get one and at that point might as well wait for the summer. Just got fed up and decided I’m not waiting forever.

 

[m7ammed]

I'm in the same boat, just pulled the trigger on a standard spec 2.3 1 TB 16 GB 5500M 4 GB. It is hard for us to get a BTO here as I would have to order it from the US. Coming from an iMac late 2015 with 8 GB and 2 GB VRAM, I should notice a jump in performance. Also can get an eGPU if I need it. So now I'm in prime position to switch to ARM in 3-5 years from now. I do photography and starting to do video 4k, so should be fun!

 

[Natzoo]

Yeah, skip at least the first gen. Third gen would be preferable. I might do second depending how things go with the first, or buy a refurb 2nd gen if all seems well.

I agree I will most likely be purchasing the 2022 version of the 16" if the keyboard program does not get extended (really surprised how Apple got away with the BS program).

 

[LinkRS]

<SNIP!!!>......significant difference. And for myself, specifically, I'm not sure if the VMs I use will be supported right away. ....<SNIP>

Any Virtual Machine (VM) that you use on your Mac today, will NOT work on an Apple Silicon Mac. There is no way for an ARM CPU to virtualize an x86 CPU. The Apple Silicon CPU would have to emulate the CPU and other components vices just passing them through which is what happens in a virtualization. The VMs that Apple showed during WWDC were most likely running an ARM variant of Linux, which is why they showed Linux VMs, vices Windows. Any programs you us in an x86 VM would have to be recompiled to run on an ARM VM, not to mention the entire Linux distro would have to be recompiled too. Point being, is if using Windows VMs is part of your work-flow on a Mac, you will not be able to use them on the Apple Silicon Mac. If you are using Linux VMs, it can be done, but will take some work on your part. Good luck!

Rich S.

 

[arche3]

The 1st generation apple arm mac will be severely under powered compared to the 2nd generation apple silicon. So you would be in the same boat. Worrying about the next generation. As of now we know the current i9 maxbook pros are monsters. We have the best of the best right now. And when the 2nd gen apple silicon comes along we can confidently move into that.

 

[Yebubbleman]

I've been waiting for ARM for a long time but finally gave in today and bought the 16" MBP, but saved some money getting it refurbished from Apple. I had an old 15" MBP through my old job so I had to return that early this year. The more I thought about it, the more I recalled various past issues with first-gen hardware. Then I realized that it might be a couple years until third-party software is optimized to the point where the new, faster hardware actually makes a significant difference. And for myself, specifically, I'm not sure if the VMs I use will be supported right away.

I usually max most things out and keep my Macs for a long time, but this time I went a little more middle of the road. I still got the 2.4GHz i9 (because there wasn't a 2.3GHz refurb), but went with only 32GB of RAM, 2TB SSD and the 5500M 8GB. It will be a secondary machine to my iMac for when I'm tired of being stuck in my studio, which is in my basement, has no windows and has been wearing me down during the pandemic. Heading into the autumn with the days shortening already, I'm tired of being stuck inside on this thing day and night. My only concern is the ARM Macs tanking the future resale value of the 16" MBP. Hopefully that doesn't happen but wouldn't be surprised if it does.

Anyway, just wanted to share my thought process in case anyone else is trying to decide like I was. I've been agonizing for a while trying to make this decision and it feels good to just be done with it. I'm sure it will be great.

Given that the 16" MacBook Pro likely won't make the jump to Apple Silicon before the second half of 2021, I think you made a good call, especially if you need a performant portable Mac now. Most of the use cases for wanting to stick with x86 are, admittedly, better on a 16" MacBook Pro. If you were in the market for the MacBook Air or the 13" MacBook Pro, I'd be telling you that you probably wanted to wait instead (with the exception of the possible case wherein you need x86 support, but don't need a high performing Mac; I, myself, am in that exact boat).

The 16" MacBook Pros are likely to still be supported for a longer amount of time than most users will likely hold onto them anyway. Which is to say that you will likely not be feeling the need to have an Apple Silicon equivalent until it's naturally time to replace that Mac anyway. Plus, you can make the jump on your iMac first and comfortably stagger your own transition to Apple Silicon Macs.

 

[macduke]

Any Virtual Machine (VM) that you use on your Mac today, will NOT work on an Apple Silicon Mac. There is no way for an ARM CPU to virtualize an x86 CPU. The Apple Silicon CPU would have to emulate the CPU and other components vices just passing them through which is what happens in a virtualization. The VMs that Apple showed during WWDC were most likely running an ARM variant of Linux, which is why they showed Linux VMs, vices Windows. Any programs you us in an x86 VM would have to be recompiled to run on an ARM VM, not to mention the entire Linux distro would have to be recompiled too. Point being, is if using Windows VMs is part of your work-flow on a Mac, you will not be able to use them on the Apple Silicon Mac. If you are using Linux VMs, it can be done, but will take some work on your part. Good luck!

Rich S.

Yeah, it would primarily be Linux for local web development. Hopefully a couple years into ASi there will be some good solutions.

The 1st generation apple arm mac will be severely under powered compared to the 2nd generation apple silicon. So you would be in the same boat. Worrying about the next generation. As of now we know the current i9 maxbook pros are monsters. We have the best of the best right now. And when the 2nd gen apple silicon comes along we can confidently move into that.

Yeah, probably somewhat similar to the first gen iPhone, iPad and Apple Watch which I own. The iPhone didn’t get drastically better until the 3GS, but the iPad got a lot better immediately with the iPad 2 and the first Apple Watch was feeling sluggish right out of the gate. That being said their team has had time to perfect these designs but I think there are a lot of interesting things they can do in a desktop form factor that might take some time to develop.

Given that the 16" MacBook Pro likely won't make the jump to Apple Silicon before the second half of 2021, I think you made a good call, especially if you need a performant portable Mac now. Most of the use cases for wanting to stick with x86 are, admittedly, better on a 16" MacBook Pro. If you were in the market for the MacBook Air or the 13" MacBook Pro, I'd be telling you that you probably wanted to wait instead (with the exception of the possible case wherein you need x86 support, but don't need a high performing Mac; I, myself, am in that exact boat).

The 16" MacBook Pros are likely to still be supported for a longer amount of time than most users will likely hold onto them anyway. Which is to say that you will likely not be feeling the need to have an Apple Silicon equivalent until it's naturally time to replace that Mac anyway. Plus, you can make the jump on your iMac first and comfortably stagger your own transition to Apple Silicon Macs.

I’d probably keep the iMac and upgrade this since it’s still slower. The iMac will probably be used a little more than half the time and that could ease the transition if the VMs aren’t ready yet. I can do design work along with project management and virtual meetings on the future ASi MBP outside while getting the fresh air I really need right now to avoid going mad.

 

[Yebubbleman]

I’d probably keep the iMac and upgrade this since it’s still slower. The iMac will probably be used a little more than half the time and that could ease the transition if the VMs aren’t ready yet. I can do design work along with project management and virtual meetings on the future ASi MBP outside while getting the fresh air I really need right now to avoid going mad.

I don't know the specifics of your iMac situation, so it'd be hard for me to say. If the idea is to sell the 16" MacBook Pro, when an Apple Silicon 16" MacBook Pro comes out, then that'd be one thing. Though, I might've instead upgraded the iMac (as you're probably never getting a better Intel Mac than the 2020 27" iMac) and then buy an older but still capable 15" MacBook Pro (2015 if you can't even tolerate the butterfly keyboard on a temporary basis) to bide your time.

Though, unless you got the 2019 27" iMac or a decked out 2019 21.5" iMac, I'd question the notion that your particular 16" MacBook Pro is slower or less capable or with as speedy of storage.

 

[Fishrrman]

OP:

Since you now HAVE a new 16", just keep using it until it no longer "does the job" for you.

Ignore the new ARM Macs when they come out.

Well, look to see what they're about, but again, so long as the 16" keeps working well... just keep using it.

By the time it won't do the job any longer, the ARM Macs ought to be mature and any bugs with porting software over to them should have been worked out...

 

[macduke]

I don't know the specifics of your iMac situation, so it'd be hard for me to say. If the idea is to sell the 16" MacBook Pro, when an Apple Silicon 16" MacBook Pro comes out, then that'd be one thing. Though, I might've instead upgraded the iMac (as you're probably never getting a better Intel Mac than the 2020 27" iMac) and then buy an older but still capable 15" MacBook Pro (2015 if you can't even tolerate the butterfly keyboard on a temporary basis) to bide your time.

Though, unless you got the 2019 27" iMac or a decked out 2019 21.5" iMac, I'd question the notion that your particular 16" MacBook Pro is slower or less capable or with as speedy of storage.

Hah, yeah, check my signature. I have a fairly decked out 2019 iMac 27". I'm was just tired of being tied down by it. I got that because it was such a big improvement and I didn't have a personal Mac for a while since I had an iMac Pro and MacBook Pro at work. But then when I changed jobs I was just left with this.

OP:

Since you now HAVE a new 16", just keep using it until it no longer "does the job" for you.

Ignore the new ARM Macs when they come out.

Well, look to see what they're about, but again, so long as the 16" keeps working well... just keep using it.

By the time it won't do the job any longer, the ARM Macs ought to be mature and any bugs with porting software over to them should have been worked out...

Yeah, I suppose that's the right way to think, and while I usually keep my Macs for a long time (6-7 years) I was really looking forward to newer features. Specifically Mini LED display, WiFi 6, perhaps a more reasonable price for 4TB SSDs and 64GB of RAM, 120Hz Pro Motion, longer battery life and a better webcam potentially with FaceID which I think is better for Macs than iPhones (it's kinda backwards now IMO). I was also really intrigued at the idea of running native iOS and iPadOS apps. If I was going to keep it longer than 3 years and more like the 6-7 I would have gotten the 4TB SSD and 64GB RAM. As it stands now on my iMac I typically use between 40-45GB of RAM although I'm sure a lot of that could be written to swap or compressed (does macOS compress before the RAM is full?). I'm also interested to see what Apple does with GPUs since AMD always lags behind Nvidia, although that is less relevant for my work except when exporting a large batch of RAW files from Lightroom or when I export the occasional edited video.

The biggest downside to ARM is that I'll have to start building my own PCs for gaming instead of just using Bootcamp on a decently spec'd Mac. Although I was probably going to start doing that again anyway since I've gotten back into doing some PC gaming and this Vega 48 isn't going to cut it for long and I was interested in checking out second gen RTX since it should run better and more games should support it.

 

[surf4peace]

Bought a 13" MacBook Pro myself... Perfect form factor... Plenty of power for my needs and can run my workstation apps in the event of an emergency. I'll use it for another 3 years minimum, then I'll figure out whether I'll need Apple Silicon by then.

 

[macduke]

Ran Cinebench R20 and kinda surprised that it benched only 16% slower than my 5K iMac (specs in sig).

Kinda wondering if I should just sell my 5K iMac and buy a Thunderbolt dock. Although I do love that 5K display it has. Wish Apple would come out with a prosumer level display soon. Although if I bought that and a TB dock I probably wouldn't make much off selling the iMac. But at the same time I'm kinda dreading keeping my environments in sync between two machines.

 

[coach_ditka]

I think there have been some issues with 16" MBP and external displays, FWIW. Not sure if you are planning on an external display, or just using the dock for the other ports:

(2019) 16" is HOT & NOISY with an external monitor! :(

I have a 16" with the i9 and 5500 4gb and also notice how hot it got when an external monitor is connected, this happened while connected for even the most basic of tasks. This I do not think is right. hopefully a driver could remedy this in future. I also think the Turbo boost routine is not...

forums.macrumors.com

 

[dinobear]

I think there have been some issues with 16" MBP and external displays, FWIW. Not sure if you are planning on an external display, or just using the dock for the other ports:

(2019) 16" is HOT & NOISY with an external monitor! :(

I have a 16" with the i9 and 5500 4gb and also notice how hot it got when an external monitor is connected, this happened while connected for even the most basic of tasks. This I do not think is right. hopefully a driver could remedy this in future. I also think the Turbo boost routine is not...

forums.macrumors.com

Also to add, the issues are resolved on machines built with the 5600m gpu.

 

[coach_ditka]

Thank you for that add, forgot about the 5600m!