Waiting for iPhone, looking for opinions...

[Polo5]

Hi everyone,

First of all I want to introduce myself, I'm Polo and I'm new here to MacRumors and well, I wanted to go ahead and ask you all for your opinions and suggestions..

I just bought an 16Gb Iphone online on the 23 of last month and I will be receiving it in a few days.

I got the current iphone because even though there is a "new iphone" coming up soon, I just wanted to be part of "history" whatever that means lol that may sound funny but again i just wanted to have the first original version of the Iphone (I'm weird like that lol)

However now that I'm waiting for the iPhone to arrive, I been having second thoughts, reading about this new expected iPhone with 3g capabilities, smaller in size, bigger memory 32Gb, better reception and just an overall improved new iphone. I'm wondering some things...

1. Do you all think that the new "new iphone" that is being rumored will be much much better than the current Iphone? if yes how much better?

2. What about price, what do you all think the new prices will be?? I heard rumors that at&t will be selling iphones for $200? and that apple will be selling iphones with more space and more features for prices similar to the ones that there is right now?

3. What is the probability of apple releasing an unlocked iphone compatible with other carriers like sprint or verizon? ( I know that Sprint and Verizon are CDMA and At&t is GSM) but i just heard some rumors that there may be a probability that this could happen, even thought I dont know how possible that is. I would like to know this as I will be breaking my contract with sprint just to get the iphone but if there is a chance of this happening maybe I'm just better off waiting until june (I know there is a 5 year contract between apple and at&t but I'm still wondering if that is a possibility)

I talked to apple customer service and they told me that if I go ahead and return the phone in the original package within 14 days I will get a full refund with no restocking fee (I dont know how true is that) but if this is true, maybe with the money that I get refunded I can just go ahead and grab a "new Iphone" in june, even if that means waiting aprox. two more months to start using the iPhone .... so what do you all think?

Get the current iPhone and be part of history and start enjoying the wonderful iPhone or just wait and torture myself another 2 months to get a "new improved iphone" and maybe stay with sprint or if not possible go to at&t and get a good deal ($$$) on an iphone as I open a new contract?

Opinions will be really taken into consideration in my decision on what to do lol

thank you all...

 

[seenett]

I say wait for the new one (that's what I'm doing), but others will disagree. Personal preference. Search the forums for opinions on your other questions - everything is just rumor at this point anyway. History will still be available in June - he "original" (iphone classic?) iphone will still be around, probably at a discount to what you paid. So wait and see what your options are come June.

Seriously doubt that the iphone will be available in CDMA, but it is slightly possible that an unlocked version will be available for other (T-Mobile) GSM carriers. Again, rumors.

Rumors are mounting that AT&T will offer a rebate, but again it's all speculation.

 

[t0mat0]

Hi everyone,


1. Do you all think that the new "new iphone" that is being rumored will be much much better than the current Iphone? if yes how much better?

2. What about price, what do you all think the new prices will be?? I heard rumors that at&t will be selling iphones for $200? and that apple will be selling iphones with more space and more features for prices similar to the ones that there is right now?

Opinions will be really taken into consideration in my decision on what to do lol

Hi Polo - there are several threads discussing 1 & 2.

1 - Yes, quite a bit. It's bringing 3G to the US in a big way. As I said, you can find more information if you read through the threads on this section of the forums.

2 - If you're looking at a contract with a carrier with Apple - look not just at the price of the handset but the whole contract over the 1 - 2 years length. The pricing will possibly be quite changed if they bring in subsidies etc.

 

[Mikey B]

Im in a similar boat, having just purchased an iPhone less than a weak ago. I decided to just keep it for a couple of reasons. As Ive stated in other posts, I don't believe that the fabled 3G phone is coming in June. There is no proof, only conjecture and speculation. It could happen, honestly it could be released tomorrow, but who knows? I had to think long and hard and decided that the current iPhone has an amazing feature set, Ive been dying to get one for months, and decided to go for it.

There seems to be a consensus among the rumor mongors that the next iPhone will have 3G and probably gps. Other than that, a few design changes and a new camera top the list

It you live in an area without 3G coverage the new iPhone isn't going to do much for you in terms of network connection speeds. But here's the thing, for all the sh*t people talk about EDGE I haven't found it to be horrible. I can download apps, watch youtube, surf the web with only a few websites being painfully slow. Really not that bad.

Just do what makes you happy. 3g and gps are going to chew through battery life and Im not convinced there's been enough innovation to change that. Maybe one or the other but combined seems like a battery killer to me.

The iPhone is amazing now and will be amazing in the future!

 

[sananda]

As Ive stated in other posts, I don't believe that the fabled 3G phone is coming in June. There is no proof, only conjecture and speculation.

either there is a new model coming out reasonably imminently or else o2 and carphone warehouse are running very strange businesses.

both o2 and carphone warehouse have been out of stock of 8GB iphones for a week. now it seems carphone are also out of 16GB iphones and o2 are running very low. carphone say they aren't ordering anymore. o2 have been reviewing the situation for a week. it seems for the rest of this month at least (their special offer on price having been set up to run until 1 june) they are intending to turn away customers perfectly happy to buy an iphone and enter into the 18 month contract. if it's not coming in june as you suggest, that would amount to turning away those customers for two months. i just don't think that's a likely way to run a business.

 

[Mikey B]

Well both At&T and the Apple Stores around here have been receiving regular shipments of iPhone. Both actually received big shipments yesterday. Not to mention I've seen plenty of posts from the UK that say there is no shortage.

 

[sananda]

Well both At&T and the Apple Stores around here have been receiving regular shipments of iPhone. Both actually received big shipments yesterday. Not to mention I've seen plenty of posts from the UK that say there is no shortage.

any posts you may have seen saying there is no shortage in the uk will refer to apple stores (of which there are only 15). there are no 8GB iphones at cpw or o2 and haven't been for a week. why wouldn't they order anymore in?

the only other explanation is that they are making a loss on every iphone they sell for £169, that they didn't think they would sell as many so quickly, and that they don't want to buy anymore in to sell at a loss. in which case they might get some in for after 1 june to sell for £269.

but if that were true they would not be making a loss on selling iphones but at the same time they would be turning away lucrative 18 month contracts. their whole business is about entering into lucrative 18 month contracts. they sell phones at a loss at the time to get the contract business.

 

[Mikey B]

any posts you may have seen saying there is no shortage in the uk will refer to apple stores. there are no 8GB iphones at cpw or o2 and haven't been for a week. why wouldn't they order anymore in?

the only other explanation is that they are making a loss on every iphone they sell for £169, that they didn't think they would sell as many so quickly, and that they don't want to buy anymore in to sell at a loss. in which case they might get some in for after 1 june to sell for £269.

but if that were true they would not be making a loss on selling iphones but at the same time they would be turning away lucrative 18 month contracts. their whole business is about entering into lucrative 18 month contracts. they sell phones at a loss at the time to get the contract business.

There's no shortage of them here in the States both at Apple Stores and at AT&T and I certainly don't ever remember a time where things happened in the UK first in terms of Apples product line. It makes sense for O2 to stop selling the 8 g because its well documented that they didn't sell well. That's the difference, as long as they are selling they are going to be available until the day the ne iPhone is released. Do you not understand that the retail stores are as much in the dark about the new release as we are. AT stores didn't know about the 16G until the day they arrived at their stores. I'm not talking about CEOs they might know but they most certainly have signed an NDA to not reveal anything even to their retail outfits.

Its easy to read what you want to believe, but that doesn't mean its true.

 

[t0mat0]

Well both At&T and the Apple Stores around here have been receiving regular shipments of iPhone. Both actually received big shipments yesterday. Not to mention I've seen plenty of posts from the UK that say there is no shortage.

You might want to check up on the 8GB iPhones in the UK for example. Apple can ship stock around to itself (it misestimated demand for iPhone as it was tapering down production of the current version, and has had to deal with that). Apple carrier networks in Europe overbought and have had to get rid of stock at discounted prices due to lack of uptake, for several reasons.

 

[sananda]

There's no shortage of them here in the States both at Apple Stores and at AT&T and I certainly don't ever remember a time where things happened in the UK first in terms of Apples product line. It makes sense for O2 to stop selling the 8 g because its well documented that they didn't sell well. That's the difference, as long as they are selling they are going to be available until the day the ne iPhone is released. Do you not understand that the retail stores are as much in the dark about the new release as we are. AT stores didn't know about the 16G until the day they arrived at their stores. I'm not talking about CEOs they might know but they most certainly have signed an NDA to not reveal anything even to their retail outfits.

Its easy to read what you want to believe, but that doesn't mean its true.

1. that o2 and cpw have no stock doesn't mean the new iphone will be sold in the uk first. it means that they decided (like t-mobile in germany) to discount iphone to stimulate sales, that this strategy worked and now they have no more iphones. if this were part of a normal ongoing strategy to stimulate sales and contract uptake they would simply have ordered more phones assuming that there are anymore to buy. but they haven't. they have been completely out of stock for a week. this suggests to me that there is at least the possibility that the discount was, in fact, not to generally stimulate sales but to clear out stock prior to the introduction of a new model and that they had overestimated demand meaning that they had too much stock. i bought a five of the discounted iphones and each one of them 1.1.2 on them. 1.1.3 was introduced on 15 january 2008. so these phones were not recent stock.

2. you say it makes sense for them to stop selling 8GB iphones because they weren't selling. they were flying out of the shops at £169. they thought the promotion would last until 1 june but they ran out a week ago. plus they have now have no 16GB either.

3. you say retail stores are in the dark about any new release but the promotion and the decision on whether to get more stock are not taken at shop level.

 

[Mikey B]

1. that o2 and cpw have no stock doesn't mean the new iphone will be sold in the uk first. it means that they decided (like t-mobile in germany) to discount iphone to stimulate sales, that this strategy worked and now they have no more iphones. if this were part of a normal ongoing strategy to stimulate sales and contract uptake they would simply have ordered more phones assuming that there are anymore to buy. but they haven't. they have been completely out of stock for a week. this suggests to me that there is at least the possibility that the discount was, in fact, not to generally stimulate sales but to clear out stock prior to the introduction of a new model and that they had overestimated demand meaning that they had too much stock. i bought a five of the discounted iphones and each one of them 1.1.2 on them. 1.1.3 was introduced on 15 january 2008. so these phones were not recent stock.

The 8G I just bought 6 days ago came with 1.1.4 FW loaded so it is most definitely recent stock.

2. you say it makes sense for them to stop selling 8GB iphones because they weren't selling. they were flying out of the shops at £169. they thought the promotion would last until 1 june but they ran out a week ago. plus they have now have no 16GB either.

What I'm saying is that they wouldn't have discounted the 8G if they were selling at the levels they originally forecasted. Of course they'll sell better at a deep discount.

3. you say retail stores are in the dark about any new release but the promotion and the decision on whether to get more stock are not taken at shop level.

Iim not sure how that's different then what I said. But retail stores most definitely choose the levels of a product they want to order for their individual stores. Like any retail business, those numbers are generated on a store-by-store level. They have to tailor inventories to their individual markets.

All I'm saying is that there is no shortage in the States, and because there may be one near you, that doesn't mean the 3G phone is around the corner.

O2 would not have discounted the iPhone unless they needed to stimulate sales. My point is that that shouldn't be read as an indication of production decreasing or a new iPhone comming. It can be any number of things. There are tons upon tons of iPhones in the States, not being sold at a discount and are recent stock.

 

[sananda]

Iim not sure how that's different then what I said. But retail stores most definitely choose the levels of a product they want to order for their individual stores. Like any retail business, those numbers are generated on a store-by-store level. They have to tailor inventories to their individual markets.

All I'm saying is that there is no shortage in the States, and because there may be one near you, that doesn't mean the 3G phone is around the corner.

O2 would not have discounted the iPhone unless they needed to stimulate sales. My point is that that shouldn't be read as an indication of production decreasing or a new iPhone comming. It can be any number of things. There are tons upon tons of iPhones in the States, not being sold at a discount and are recent stock.

you're missing the point about retail decisions. there are no 8GB iphones in any o2 or cpw shops. clearly that is not a decision made by individual shops.

i have not said that there is definitely a new iphone imminent; i said either there is one imminent or o2 and cpw are running very strange businesses. unless you think there's a good business case for not stocking a phone for over a month and consequently losing out on contract business.

 

[t0mat0]

Iim not sure how that's different then what I said. But retail stores most definitely choose the levels of a product they want to order for their individual stores. Like any retail business, those numbers are generated on a store-by-store level. They have to tailor inventories to their individual markets.

All I'm saying is that there is no shortage in the States, and because there may be one near you, that doesn't mean the 3G phone is around the corner.

O2 would not have discounted the iPhone unless they needed to stimulate sales. My point is that that shouldn't be read as an indication of production decreasing or a new iPhone comming. It can be any number of things. There are tons upon tons of iPhones in the States, not being sold at a discount and are recent stock.

Are they on Apple shelves? If not, Apple has already sold them.
The Earnings call said they were decreasing production:
(www.SeekingAlpha.com)
Peter Oppenheimer
David, what we said is we intend to deliver the iPhone 2.0 software in late June .

Timothy D. Cook iPhone again, we really outstripped our supply toward the end of the quarter because we sold more than we had expected. We thought there would be a -- more of a sequential decline there than there was.

Timothy D. Cook
Tony, my point was that stock-outs were occurring in our own stores toward the end of the quarter and we believe that was because our stores are more susceptible to people going in and buying multiple units and then unlocking and exporting them. However, I also added that currently inventories are low in both our stores and in the channel.

Toni Sacconaghi - Sanford Bernstein
And is that also the case in your European channel or is that an aggregate channel statement?

Timothy D. Cook
I don’t want to be specific at the carrier level but I the aggregate, Europe is low. In the aggregate, the U.S. is low.

Timothy D. Cook
Once the units are already shipped and designated to a carrier, the ability to move them from carrier to carrier is very low. And so you can have very short-term cases where there is some imbalance. But I think the major point is that we sold more than we thought we would and that today, inventories are low and in aggregate in Europe and in aggregate in the U.S.

Toni Sacconaghi - Sanford Bernstein
Can you comment on whether you thought you sold more in Europe than you thought you would?

Timothy D. Cook
No, I’m just going to comment that in total, that we sold more than we expected. We expected a sharper seasonal decline than what we experienced and as you know, this was our first Q1 to Q2 that we’ve been in the phone business, and so we’ve learned something.


As of late April, In the aggregate, the U.S. was low.

It's not definitive, and nor would it be. Apple not commenting on future product and all.

 

[Mikey B]

I guess all I can speak for is my local Apple and AT&T stores, both of which have plentiful stock of iPhones. They both received shipments yesterday.

And, if I'm reading the Tim Cook excerpt right, demand outstripped supply, and that is the reason for shortages noticed in some areas, right? It's funny, because in Michigan where I live, except for the first week or so when the iPhone came out, there hasn't ever been a shortage. At least not observed by me personally or in the newspapers and blogs that I read.

 

[sananda]

I guess all I can speak for is my local Apple and AT&T stores, both of which have plentiful stock of iPhones. They both received shipments yesterday.

in which case, perhaps i can turn around something you said earlier. there is a complete absence of stock in my entire country. and because there is no shortage near you, doesn't negate anything i have said in this thread.

 

[Mikey B]

in which case, perhaps i can turn around something you said earlier. there is a complete absence of stock in my entire country. and because there is no shortage near you, doesn't negate anything i have said in this thread.

All I'm saying is that it is foolish to think that because iPhone stock levels in the UK are low means that a new iPhone is coming. It's more indicitive of poor forecasting on behalf of O2 etc. NOt to mention, the 8G levels are low because they blew them out with a huge sale. It seems that they don't believe that there's as much of a market for the smallest capacity iPhone there. It makes sense that they would try and move those units to recoupe potential losses, either real or forecasted.

Also, to the OP, sorry your thread was hijacked. There's a lot to weigh in making this decision. One of the great things about the iPhone is that it was designed to have many features added through software upgrades. Apple has a clear commitment to providing these upgrades for all iPhones. All the 2nd gen can bring is a few hardware changes and a new design. Except for GPS and the 3G radio, nearly all features can be added through firmware updates. The camera can be used for video already, there are several apps availble to do that now, with more coming with the App Store. I find the Maps "Locate Me" app works great for me, and I'd rather keep that than loose a lot of battery life for GPS functionality that I probably will never use. I haven't seen definitive data that the chipsets have been innovated to the point where this is no longer a concern. 3G? Anywhere west of where I live, there's nothing at this time, and so far, though this might change, I'm satisfied with EDGE. Without a doubt, 3G is growing. I see that around the time of the 3rd Gen iPhone, the 3G network will have completely surplanted EDGE. And of course by then, everyone will be whinning for 4G!

Just remember, with the addition of 3G and GPS there will be a trade-off. Battery life may decrease and data plans may increase. But there may be nothing lost, we just don't know.

 

[sananda]

All I'm saying is that it is foolish to think that because iPhone stock levels in the UK are low means that a new iPhone is coming. It's more indicitive of poor forecasting on behalf of O2 etc. NOt to mention, the 8G levels are low because they blew them out with a huge sale. It seems that they don't believe that there's as much of a market for the smallest capacity iPhone there. It makes sense that they would try and move those units to recoupe potential losses, either real or forecasted.

it's not that they sold out; it's that they don't plan to re-order. why wouldn't they re-order?

of course, their stock management seems poor in comparison to apple.

 

[mkrishnan]

All I'm saying is that it is foolish to think that because iPhone stock levels in the UK are low means that a new iPhone is coming.

It's self-fulfilling prophecy. The stock levels are low here or there repeatedly. Eventually, a new model does come out, perhaps many months later. But once the new model has come out, it becomes clear validating evidence that the earlier supply shortfall was related to the impending release of the new model.

I personally will go with:

1) Insanely better.

2) No more than $50 without contract.

3) 100% chance of verizon compatibility.

 

[Mikey B]

it's not that they sold out; it's that they don't plan to re-order. why wouldn't they re-order?

of course, their stock management seems poor in comparison to apple.

But why does AT&T re-order? Do you really think that O2 knows something that AT&T, Apple's primary partner in the iPhone Enterprise, doesn't?

 

[sananda]

if a new model is announced just after the end of the o2/cpw promotion on 1 june, i will link the two together. whether it was solid information o2 and cpw had or guesswork, i won't know.

obviously, if a new model comes out "many months later", it would be pretty odd to link it to a zero stock situation in april/may.

 

[sananda]

But why does AT&T re-order? Do you really think that O2 knows something that AT&T, Apple's primary partner in the iPhone Enterprise, doesn't?

first, i don't know whether at&t are actually re-ordering or just delivering stock they already have to their stores. for instance, my local 02 stores up until a week ago were having deliveries of iphones but they were clearly from a central o2 location and were stock from the initial november consignments.

second, i agree with you when you said o2 have poor forecasting. i also doubt they control their stock as efficiently as apple and at&t. it may be that they just set the promotion price too low. clearly they were anticipating that they would have sufficient supplies until the end of the promotion on 1 june. that didn't work out. but maybe they're not in a position to get any more because there aren't any more. maybe. or perhaps knowing they got it wrong with their estimates of sales, having finally got rid of the stock, and knowing that an new model is immenent, they have decided to wait for the new one.

the thing is if they are able to order more iphones, and they haven't been told that there will be a new model in june, i don't see why they wouldn't re-stock.

 

[Mikey B]

if a new model is announced just after the end of the o2/cpw promotion on 1 june, i will link the two together. whether it was solid information o2 and cpw had or guesswork, i won't know.

obviously, if a new model comes out "many months later", it would be pretty odd to link it to a zero stock situation in april/may.

Makes sense. Not too much longer until we find out!

I still haven't seen anything on the FCC front, have you or anyone else? Once we see that, we will know for sure.

I just feel like 98% of AT&T is in the dark, hell, 98% of Apple is in the dark, so I don't see how O2 would be in the loop more than AT&t or the Apple Store. One of my best friends works at the local Apple Store, and obviously take this with a grain of salt, but not even the GM of the store has the slightest inkling. They too didn't know about the 16 G until the day they arrived.

But I'll tell you, it sure is fun to speculate!

 

[sananda]

But I'll tell you, it sure is fun to speculate!

i just would like to be able to go to o2 and buy an iphone! i'm using an old old nokia.

 

[Mikey B]

first, i don't know whether at&t are actually re-ordering or just delivering stock they already have to their stores. for instance, my local 02 stores up until a week ago were having deliveries of iphones but they were clearly from a central o2 location and were stock from the initial november consignments.

There really isn't a difference. The individual stores don't order product and warehouse them somwhere else. Each store, Apple or AT&T, orders what they feel they can sell in their respective markets. If the GM of the individual store doesn't want the product, they won't order more for their store. As far as ordering vs. delivering more, they are one in the same.


second, i agree with you when you said o2 have poor forecasting. i also doubt they control their stock as efficiently as apple and at&t. it may be that they just set the promotion price too low. clearly they were anticipating that they would have sufficient supplies until the end of the promotion on 1 june. that didn't work out. but maybe they're not in a position to get any more because there aren't any more. maybe. or perhaps knowing they got it wrong with their estimates of sales, having finally got rid of the stock, and knowing that an new model is immenent, they have decided to wait for the new one.

Could be, who knows? I think they've just decided not to carry a high-end product that couldn't generate revenue at an accepted level, so they cut it from their inventory. All this proves is that in their contract with Apple, there clearly isn't a mandate to carry all models of the iPhone.

the thing is if they are able to order more iphones, and they haven't been told that there will be a new model in june, i don't see why they wouldn't re-stock.

Like I said above, the 8G didn't sell well in that market until they put it on sale. Kind of like when Apple dropped the 4G. Apparently the next higher price point was not high enough to deter sales

ALso, I really appreciate having this dialogue with you! It can be hard to find intelligent people with whom to have discourse! Thanks

 

[Mikey B]

i just would like to be able to go to o2 and buy an iphone! i'm using an old old nokia.

If you wanna Paypal me, I'll send you one from Michigan!