Waiting for M3 thread

[senttoschool]

I'm waiting for M3 lineup before I upgrade from my M1 Pro. M3 should be based on 3nm node at TSMC which is a proper node shrink from 5nm. It should bring a very sizable increase in performance, performance/watt, and probably battery life.

It's possible that M3 will skip the A16, and go straight to the A17. This is because the A16 is expected to be on a 5nm node due to the delays from TSMC in getting 3nm ready before the iPhone 14 launch. Thus, the iPhone 15 A17 will be on 3nm. I don't know too much about chip designs but I assume that Apple would want to design the cores of the A17 and M3 on the same node.

Apple has revealed that they want to either do a yearly or 1.5-year cadence update on the M series. This means the M3 should be out next Summer or Fall. This is great news because we'll see more progress than waiting every 2 years for an upgrade.

Lastly, I wonder if M3 RAM will have multiples of 12 rather than 8. So M3 could start at 12GB and the next upgrade is 24GB.

 

[JPack]

2024 based on the 18-month cycle.

 

[ChromeCloud]

It's possible that M3 will skip the A16, and go straight to the A17.

Are we 100% sure M2 is not based on A16?

 

[MF878]

If M3 is 3nm, it will be Oct/Nov 2023 at the earliest, more likely first half 2024.

There’s merit to the idea that RAM options will be 12GB and 24GB. 8GB probably won’t cut it in 2024, but a base of 16GB might discourage upgrades as 32GB could be perceived as overkill for the overwhelming majority of customers, especially if it’s still $400 (or even $300). A $200 upgrade from 12GB to 24GB offers better value than the current 8GB to 16GB.

 

[senttoschool]

If M3 is 3nm, it will be Oct/Nov 2023 at the earliest, more likely first half 2024.

3nm production is starting later this year. That would be way too late for the iPhone 14 but Summer 2023 is still in play for M3.

Edit:

TSMC's N3 technology will provide full node scaling compared to N5, so its adopters will get all performance (10% - 15%), power (-25% ~ -30%), and area (1.7x higher for logic) enhancements that they come to expect from a new node in this day and age. But these advantages will come at a cost. The fabrication process will rely extensively on extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography, and while the exact number of EUV layers is unknown, it will be a greater number of layers than the 14 used in N5. The extreme complexity of the technology will further add to the number of process steps – bringing it toto well over 1000 – which will further increase cycle times.

As a result, while mass production of the first chips using TSMC's N3 node will begin in the second half of 2022, the company will only be shipping them to an undisclosed client for revenue in the first quarter of 2023. Many observers, however, expected these chips to ship in late 2022.

"N3 risk production is scheduled in 2021, and production will start in second half of 2022," said C.C. Wei, CEO of TSMC. "So second half of 2022 will be our mass production, but you can expect that revenue will be seen in first quarter of 2023 because it takes long — it takes cycle time to have all those wafer out."

TSMC Roadmap Update: 3nm in Q1 2023, 3nm Enhanced in 2024, 2nm in 2025

www.anandtech.com

 

[MayaUser]

Are we 100% sure M2 is not based on A16?

yes, M2 its A15, thats why i think the M3 will be on A16 and not A17 or A200. Apple will never do A16 just for the iphones, is bad money spend and investment at its level. So the core of A16 must go in a lot more devices ,like the ipads ,MBA, MBP, imac

 

[Love-hate 🍏 relationship]

yes, M2 its A15, thats why i think the M3 will be on A16 and not A17 or A200. Apple will never do A16 just for the iphones, is bad money spend and investment at its level. So the core of A16 must go in a lot more devices ,like the ipads ,MBA, MBP, imac

again,how do we know for sure that m2 is based on A15?

 

[StudioMacs]

again,how do we know for sure that m2 is based on A15?

Here’s a pretty good breakdown of what is known https://www.anandtech.com/show/17431/apple-announces-m2-soc-apple-silicon-updated-for-2022

 

[MrGunny94]

Yeah I'll be waiting for the M3 or M3 Pro for sure. I love my M1 Pro but I need more efficiency because 7-8h is just not enough for me for a full day of work using VMs and Teams on the go at a warehouse or a factory.

 

[T'hain Esh Kelch]

My 2016 M3 Macbook is overdue for an upgrade as the display is failing and it is SLOW, so I will side-grade to another M3 Macbook (Air) when they get released.

If I can find the money, I will also upgrade my 2011 iMac to an M3 Max Mac Studio. If not, it will be an M4.

 

[sam_dean]

I'm waiting for M3 lineup before I upgrade from my M1 Pro. M3 should be based on 3nm node at TSMC which is a proper node shrink from 5nm. It should bring a very sizable increase in performance, performance/watt, and probably battery life.

It's possible that M3 will skip the A16, and go straight to the A17. This is because the A16 is expected to be on a 5nm node due to the delays from TSMC in getting 3nm ready before the iPhone 14 launch. Thus, the iPhone 15 A17 will be on 3nm. I don't know too much about chip designs but I assume that Apple would want to design the cores of the A17 and M3 on the same node.

Apple has revealed that they want to either do a yearly or 1.5-year cadence update on the M series. This means the M3 should be out next Summer or Fall. This is great news because we'll see more progress than waiting every 2 years for an upgrade.

Lastly, I wonder if M3 RAM will have multiples of 12 rather than 8. So M3 could start at 12GB and the next upgrade is 24GB.

M1 to M2 took 19.5 months

So M3 may come out in volume by Jan 2024.

As for memory I hope base model M3 will be 16GB.

 

[thenewperson]

As for memory I hope base model M3 will be 16GB.

I could see 8/512, though I'm hoping (at least) 16/256 going forward.

 

[Love-hate 🍏 relationship]

I could see 8/512, though I'm hoping (at least) 16/256 going forward.

Very much doubt 16gb base as well

Maybe maybe maybe 512gb (and that’s a stretch)

I totally see them keep that 8/256 base

Or , if they somehow come up with a different number , we could see 10/12gb ? Dunno

 

[MrGunny94]

I could see 8/512, though I'm hoping (at least) 16/256 going forward.

16/256GB would be a dream for baseline model especially with the prices increasing…..

In the EU the 14” base model is just a better model than M2 Air

 

[Love-hate 🍏 relationship]

16/256GB would be a dream for baseline model especially with the prices increasing…..

In the EU the 14” base model is just a better model than M2 Air

In the eu the 14 costs 2400 , while the m2 air 16/512 is 1960 , so roughly 450€ of difference

 

[t0mat0]

At least with the basic M chip coming before the Pro Max and Ultra etc, we’ll see the M3 and multiply the performance and anticipate the likely improvement for the Pro, Max etc.

 

[sam_dean]

I could see 8/512, though I'm hoping (at least) 16/256 going forward.

Pls this...

$499 Mac mini M3 16/512

$999 Macbook Air M3 16/512

$299 Mac mini A17 Bionic 8/256

$699 Macbook Air A17 Bionic 8/256

 

[MrGunny94]

In the eu the 14 costs 2400 , while the m2 air 16/512 is 1960 , so roughly 450€ of difference

I have friends who got the 14" base model at 1900€ on Amazon. Look here at a 512GB 16GB RAM configuration of a M2 MacBook Air in Spain..

Remember you can't get BTB 16GB RAM of M2 Air on most retailers, almost all the time you either need to order directly from a special retailer or Apple itself.

You can now understand why some people when they see the base 14" model on sale, who need the 16GB will go for that one.

 

[Love-hate 🍏 relationship]

I have friends who got the 14" base model at 1900€ on Amazon. Look here at a 512GB 16GB RAM configuration of a M2 MacBook Air in Spain..

Remember you can't get BTB 16GB RAM of M2 Air on most retailers, almost all the time you either need to order directly from a special retailer or Apple itself.

View attachment 2146494

You can now understand why some people when they see the base 14" model on sale, who need the 16GB will go for that one.

What I mean is, you’re comparing the old price lineups to the new ones

Mba m2 is part of the new pricing , mbp 14 m1 isn’t

However mbp 14 m2 is

Get me ?

I agree with you

 

[MrGunny94]

What I mean is, you’re comparing the old price lineups to the new ones

Mba m2 is part of the new pricing , mbp 14 m1 isn’t

However mbp 14 m2 is

Get me ?

I agree with you

I'm comparing the same way any consumer will do. I completely understand your perspective but this is a reality I see every day from my enterprise company to my personal life.

Late in 2022 I kept seeing the Base M1 Pro model going as low as 1850€ and people would opt for that even with the M2 Air out during the summer.

Like I have commented on the other thread, I know at least 5 persons who opted for the M1 Pro base model because of the ridiculous dual external display support.

 

[Love-hate 🍏 relationship]

I'm comparing the same way any consumer will do. I completely understand your perspective but this is a reality I see every day from my enterprise company to my personal life.

Late in 2022 I kept seeing the Base M1 Pro model going as low as 1850€ and people would opt for that even with the M2 Air out during the summer.

Like I have commented on the other thread, I know at least 5 persons who opted for the M1 Pro base model because of the ridiculous dual external display support.

I understand because I too went for the 14 instead a 16/512 mba hahah

What I’m saying is that the new prices make it harder , since you’d have to sheel out 450 euros …2400 is quite the budget

 

[FreakinEurekan]

Pls this...

$499 Mac mini M3 16/512

Dream on! 🤣

 

[sam_dean]

Dream on! 🤣

Even if it's half the SSD throughput.

I can see an A16 Bionic iPhone chip with the same 16 billion transistor count as an M1 being a cheaper & smaller part for a $299 Mac mini 8/256 that uses a 2022 Apple TV 4K enclosure.

 

[Appletoni]

I'm waiting for M3 lineup before I upgrade from my M1 Pro. M3 should be based on 3nm node at TSMC which is a proper node shrink from 5nm. It should bring a very sizable increase in performance, performance/watt, and probably battery life.

It's possible that M3 will skip the A16, and go straight to the A17. This is because the A16 is expected to be on a 5nm node due to the delays from TSMC in getting 3nm ready before the iPhone 14 launch. Thus, the iPhone 15 A17 will be on 3nm. I don't know too much about chip designs but I assume that Apple would want to design the cores of the A17 and M3 on the same node.

Apple has revealed that they want to either do a yearly or 1.5-year cadence update on the M series. This means the M3 should be out next Summer or Fall. This is great news because we'll see more progress than waiting every 2 years for an upgrade.

Lastly, I wonder if M3 RAM will have multiples of 12 rather than 8. So M3 could start at 12GB and the next upgrade is 24GB.

I hope that 3nm will increase the performance by 50%.
Since more cores will also be added, one could assume a doubling of performance compared to M2.
16 TB SSD should then also be feasible.

 

[Mr Screech]

Here's hoping the M3 supports Thunderbolt 5.
A M3 Ultra with 6x Thunderbolt 5 seems a worthy upgrade.