Within a year there will be a huge shakeout in the online music industry. There is absolutely no way more than a couple companies can survive, because they are all following half of a business model, and it's not the profitable half.
Apple will continue to succeed and sell iPods. If a person is concerned about online music working with their iPod, they will use the ITMS. I doubt they are going to look around and think, "I want to buy from these other services, I should get something that works with their sites," because those sites don't offer any significant advantages over ITMS, and they have more restrictions and poorer customer service and tech support. The person who is going to buy from Walmart just to save a dime isn't buying an iPod anyways, and even if Walmart can sell them a WMA player or CD burner, they aren't going to make anywhere near what Apple makes per iPod. Walmart will not be making money on this unless they are putting the record companies in the Walton Headlock.
All it's going to take is one or two bad experiences to make most consumers abandon an online music site. I have firsthand knowledge of people who have been burned by the Windows sites and now just use the ITMS, even though they don't even own iPods. iTunes is better than any other music player/organizer out there, so there is only one reason to use another program: WMA. Are there any compelling reasons to prefer WMA over AAC? Not many that I can see.
As an informed consumer and tech-savvy user, I look at the options and I see Microsoft's attempt to control all Windows music sales (he who controls the format controls the distribution), I see Apple with a setup that works incredibly well and is very stable, and the choice seems pretty clear.
Apple will continue to succeed and sell iPods. If a person is concerned about online music working with their iPod, they will use the ITMS. I doubt they are going to look around and think, "I want to buy from these other services, I should get something that works with their sites," because those sites don't offer any significant advantages over ITMS, and they have more restrictions and poorer customer service and tech support. The person who is going to buy from Walmart just to save a dime isn't buying an iPod anyways, and even if Walmart can sell them a WMA player or CD burner, they aren't going to make anywhere near what Apple makes per iPod. Walmart will not be making money on this unless they are putting the record companies in the Walton Headlock.
All it's going to take is one or two bad experiences to make most consumers abandon an online music site. I have firsthand knowledge of people who have been burned by the Windows sites and now just use the ITMS, even though they don't even own iPods. iTunes is better than any other music player/organizer out there, so there is only one reason to use another program: WMA. Are there any compelling reasons to prefer WMA over AAC? Not many that I can see.
As an informed consumer and tech-savvy user, I look at the options and I see Microsoft's attempt to control all Windows music sales (he who controls the format controls the distribution), I see Apple with a setup that works incredibly well and is very stable, and the choice seems pretty clear.