Given that Apple is still selling the iPad 10, which has the A14, which is using the same process and cores and NPU as M1, plus the fact that the A10, A12 and A13 are still supported, I think it’s still going to be a long time before the M1 becomes even close to dated.
Also, consider the fact that even though the M1 was *first* released in 2020, it was still being built into new products in 2022 with the iPad Air.
Keeping this in mind, it’s unlikely to lose support until 2027 at the earliest, and that’s worst case scenario.
The problem is, Apple doesn’t work that way. They don’t care about the tech specs.
Apple uses the launch date of the product to determine support.
Case in point: iPad Pro 10.5 with A10X and 4GB RAM doesn’t support iPadOS 18. iPad 7 with A10 and 3GB does. The reason is simply because iPad Pro was launched in 2017 and iPad was launched in 2019.
Worst case scenario is M1 MBA loses major macOS updates in 2026 because Apple supports Mac for 6-7 years. The n-1 and n-2 macOS updates doesn’t really count since Apple admits they don’t contain all the known security fixes.