Mine was shipped UPS Ground, expected to be delivered today (still on the truck). It was probably shipped Ground because the distribution center where it shipped out of is about a 4.5 hour drive from where I live.
There may be hope after all, just received a text that it should arrive tomorrow. It's shipping fedex so hopefully they didn't use the residential shipping department as this is coming to my work address.
it appears apple just created the shipping label instead of shipping my watch, no idea when it's going to actually ship. they did it right at the end of the ship estimate window, they have now missed their shipping dates.