What holds more value 16" or new 13"

[throAU]

I have seen them on this forum. Very infrequent but they do happen. I have not heard of dGPU problems on the 2015; just the 2014. I haven't seen them on the 2013.

If there's a failure possible, you'll probably see it here.

Yeah some have proven reliable.

But my point is that over the past decade there's been a roughly 50/50 chance of your dGPU machine dying over 4-5 years. No one has 4-5 year old 2020 machines yet. There's an even chance they're going to be unreliable just like half the previous models.

Combine with the higher initial purchase price, and the idea of buying a 15-16" machine "for re-sale" is pretty silly.

If you need the power you need the power - buy it. But don't go spending 1.5-2x the price (for 13 vs 16) for "re-sale" purposes when

1. in terms of the money you'll lose - the more you spend the more you are likely to lose, and in percentage terms the 13s tend to hold better percentage of their purchase price anyway
2. it may well be worth zero some time after AppleCare runs out due to hardware death. this has proven to be far more likely to happen to the larger machines than the 13s if long term history is a guide.

Banking on a 15-16" MacBook Pro being alive after 4-5 years is not a bet I'd make. Sure you might be lucky - and MAYBE apple is doing better these days (we won't find out until 2025 though for the '20 models), but so far the odds seem to be roughly 50% that reliability will be a systemic problem/design issue with any larger model that apple has put out.

I'll put more trust in larger machines when apple has had a sustained run of not having them break. Likely after they switch to their own silicon - iPads seem to last forever and the heat issues will likely be a lot less of a problem.

 

[hky740]

Yeah some have proven reliable.

But my point is that over the past decade there's been a roughly 50/50 chance of your dGPU machine dying over 4-5 years. No one has 4-5 year old 2020 machines yet. There's an even chance they're going to be unreliable just like half the previous models.

Combine with the higher initial purchase price, and the idea of buying a 15-16" machine "for re-sale" is pretty silly.

If you need the power you need the power - buy it. But don't go spending 1.5-2x the price (for 13 vs 16) for "re-sale" purposes when

1. in terms of the money you'll lose - the more you spend the more you are likely to lose, and in percentage terms the 13s tend to hold better percentage of their purchase price anyway
2. it may well be worth zero some time after AppleCare runs out due to hardware death. this has proven to be far more likely to happen to the larger machines than the 13s if long term history is a guide.

Banking on a 15-16" MacBook Pro being alive after 4-5 years is not a bet I'd make. Sure you might be lucky - and MAYBE apple is doing better these days (we won't find out until 2025 though for the '20 models), but so far the odds seem to be roughly 50% that reliability will be a systemic problem/design issue with any larger model that apple has put out.

I'll put more trust in larger machines when apple has had a sustained run of not having them break. Likely after they switch to their own silicon - iPads seem to last forever and the heat issues will likely be a lot less of a problem.

What would say is worse, having bought an Intel 16' MBP in late 2019 (considering the pending move away from Intel) or a G4 Mac Mini in late 2005 (about two months before the Intel switch)? I'm guilty of having done both though I was pretty young and dumb in 2005. The G4 mini aged pretty fast, from what I remember.

 

[profcutter]

Yeah some have proven reliable.

But my point is that over the past decade there's been a roughly 50/50 chance of your dGPU machine dying over 4-5 years. No one has 4-5 year old 2020 machines yet. There's an even chance they're going to be unreliable just like half the previous models.

Combine with the higher initial purchase price, and the idea of buying a 15-16" machine "for re-sale" is pretty silly.

If you need the power you need the power - buy it. But don't go spending 1.5-2x the price (for 13 vs 16) for "re-sale" purposes when

1. in terms of the money you'll lose - the more you spend the more you are likely to lose, and in percentage terms the 13s tend to hold better percentage of their purchase price anyway
2. it may well be worth zero some time after AppleCare runs out due to hardware death. this has proven to be far more likely to happen to the larger machines than the 13s if long term history is a guide.

Banking on a 15-16" MacBook Pro being alive after 4-5 years is not a bet I'd make. Sure you might be lucky - and MAYBE apple is doing better these days (we won't find out until 2025 though for the '20 models), but so far the odds seem to be roughly 50% that reliability will be a systemic problem/design issue with any larger model that apple has put out.

I'll put more trust in larger machines when apple has had a sustained run of not having them break. Likely after they switch to their own silicon - iPads seem to last forever and the heat issues will likely be a lot less of a problem.

You know, it’s funny, I never thought of it like that, but you’re right. Given the complaints people have about the performance of the 16” with an external display, it may be another problem unit. I always buy the ones with discrete graphics but that’s because I do video work, and large PDFs. I’ve been waiting for the next gen of 16” machines because this first gen looks a bit problematic for me: low quality display, bad performance with external monitors, no wifi 6, crappy webcam.

 

[thekev]

Add 2012 retinas to the swollen battery issues. and 2008s to the Nvidia GPU problems (reflow/re-balling required).

So its at least half of the 15+ inch machines machines in the past decade or so...

Battery problems aren't restricted to 15" models.


For the OP, I would suggest getting a rough estimate by looking at the resale value of models that lacked significant problems from the past few years, noting any where the value was extended in a weird way due to lack of refreshes over their respective lines. If we're talking about machines nearing the $2k and up range on a new purchase, expect to sell for quite a bit less. Lower end models of a newer standard will displace used purchases to a high degree if it's a solid transition.

Your best hope for resale value is a botched transition, which is arguably in conflict with what anyone who hopes to use the new machines would really hope for. As always, I suggest buying what you need. Treating it like an investment is a really bad idea unless of course you're making money using that machine during the time you own it, in which case residual value should not be your primary concern.

 

[pshufd]

Yeah some have proven reliable.

But my point is that over the past decade there's been a roughly 50/50 chance of your dGPU machine dying over 4-5 years. No one has 4-5 year old 2020 machines yet. There's an even chance they're going to be unreliable just like half the previous models.

Combine with the higher initial purchase price, and the idea of buying a 15-16" machine "for re-sale" is pretty silly.

If you need the power you need the power - buy it. But don't go spending 1.5-2x the price (for 13 vs 16) for "re-sale" purposes when

1. in terms of the money you'll lose - the more you spend the more you are likely to lose, and in percentage terms the 13s tend to hold better percentage of their purchase price anyway
2. it may well be worth zero some time after AppleCare runs out due to hardware death. this has proven to be far more likely to happen to the larger machines than the 13s if long term history is a guide.

Banking on a 15-16" MacBook Pro being alive after 4-5 years is not a bet I'd make. Sure you might be lucky - and MAYBE apple is doing better these days (we won't find out until 2025 though for the '20 models), but so far the odds seem to be roughly 50% that reliability will be a systemic problem/design issue with any larger model that apple has put out.

I'll put more trust in larger machines when apple has had a sustained run of not having them break. Likely after they switch to their own silicon - iPads seem to last forever and the heat issues will likely be a lot less of a problem.

I buy older hardware but expect a significant discount.

I'm typing on a 2008 PC right now but it runs my applications with power to spare that newer models would have some problems with. I could upgrade the CPU as well if I needed more.

We still have a 2010 MacBook Pro 15 in use. I would buy another one at the right price-point as I could put it to use. If you're buying old equipment, you buy more than one as one could die at any time.

 

[throAU]

Battery problems aren't restricted to 15" models.

no but battery problems are more likely with more heat, and the machines with higher wattage cpus and discrete gpu generate a lot more of that.