The thread seems to be full answers addressing the core OP want of enough storage. It appears all answers focus on keeping this part of the cost low, leaning towards buying the minimum and/or buying stock and doing what the OP says they do not want- external storage options.
However, no one seems to have mentioned the SPEED difference of storage. Silicon SSD is FAST and FAST storage means all things that intensely use storage will be faster. OP asks a question about family video. If there is
editing of family video, editing will be faster with plenty of SSD vs. "barely enough." Even if OP would bend to the external option recommended by some, are there any external drives that are as fast as the internal SSD in these Macs? I'm not aware of any myself and most options are substantially SLOWER than the internal... especially with a guiding mindset of minimizing spend.
I have also seen more than a few posts by people confidently proclaiming that spare "empty" SSD is needed to keep that speed high. Full or near-full SSD speed slows down from peak speed. While that could be covert Apple marketing players trying to plant a different kind of seed to motivate speed-hungry owners to pay wayyyyyyyyy up for more Apple SSD, I'm buying the concept more than outright rejecting it as such.
While I think Apple overpricing for "you can get this only from us" SSD is towards robbery/exploitation pricing, if you want a Silicon Mac, they are effectively a complete monopoly on SSD and RAM. Buy from them at whatever price they demand or minimize that robbery and lean on externals for SSD and simply hope that stock RAM is enough for all tasks. To the latter, if it is NOT, macOS will then lean on using the SSD for swaps (using SSD space like it is spare RAM) and thus the SPEED issue comes into play in a much more important way. For example, MAX RAM but MIN SSD free space means that speedy RAM-driven computing may be negatively affected by the SSD slowdown effect of a nearly full SSD in all swaps.
So this sets up
another variable for OPs consideration beyond "I want enough so I don't need an external" and that is: how important is speedy SSD read/writes to OP? If OPs usage needs speed, the choice may become something like:
- How much SSD storage do I need for all files I want to put on it now?
- How much more storage do I think I will need for all files I'll likely add while I own this device?
The second question actually matters much more than first but the first is a good starting point because an existing main Mac can likely give a nearly precise answer.
To the answer to the second question, rule of thumb for the "speed" issue seems to be to multiply by at least 1.3 and round up. So, if OP needs- say- 1.4TB now and anticipates accumulating files during ownership to 2.5TB (not hard to do with "family video" accumulation), 2.5 times 1.3 = 3.25. Rounded up = 4TB option. if this was OPs actual math, Apple's 4TB pricing is relatively insane but again, only game in town... and priced that way.
Lastly: in facing actual need to cover both future storage need potential and this speedy SSD issue with sufficient empty spare, OP may not like Apple's crazy pricing for the storage. If so, this might be a time to segregate what you really need on a laptop at all times vs. what could work fine on a hub or external you leave at home or carry as additional weight. An external will definitely save lots of money. For example, I have a portable 2.5" HDD (about the size of a deck of playing cards) that cost only $99 for 4TB. I think the 5TB model is now $99. Relatively, it is painfully slow on R/W vs. the internal SSD but it's only $99 and holds 4-5TB of files that I don't
always have to have on the laptop.
I have a massive library of family videos shot on even old silent film from back in the 1950s. I don't keep any of it on a laptop. Instead, I have it on an external attached to a Mac
Desktop feeding AppleTVs hooked to the TV screens around the house. If I was going to visit some family and wanted to show them select videos, I might put only those onto the laptop for that trip and then take them back off after the trip. OR I might take the whole external with me so I would have all of them in case they wanted to see some video I could not anticipate before I traveled.
I also backup my iDevices to that desktop, store my iTunes library there, etc. Net effect is the laptop is a mobile Mac tool with the SSD mostly about holding the apps I need when on the road. Big SSD-hogging files like videos, my entire music collection, my entire photo collection, etc. easily live on much cheaper external storage back at home (backed up a few times to spares just in case that crucial store of such media conks unexpectedly).
If you don't have a desktop but do have an existing laptop, maybe it becomes the home "big store" desktop-like computer for similar purposes and the new laptop can be SSD lean to mostly hold the apps you need when on the road with a little extra space for new files you create when on the road? When you get home, dump the new files onto the "desktop" storage to free up that space again.
Revisiting the wild guess math: if the current 1.4TB could be shaved to- say- 700GB of OP essentials and future anticipation assumes that will grow to- say- 1.2TB during life of the new laptop, 1.2 times 1.3 = 1.56TB rounded up to the 2TB internal SSD. That too is insanely priced but much less expensive than Apple's 4TB option.
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