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Why the hell are we still asking for Gruber's opinion? The guy's a moron and the quote right there in the article proves it. He literally has no idea what he is on about.
 
you missed his point. his point was a diff of only $150 is too low, considering the cost *to apple* in operational efficiency. that is, all the different materials introduce operational complication and thus cost even beyond material cost alone.

there ya go.

And yet he doesn't have the first clue about Apple's costs, and of course the "operational efficiency" argument can be made equally for aluminum. All we really know from his analysis is that he's predicting that Apple Watch will sell for more than twice as much as the Sport. That's just nuts. For double-nuts, consider his $500 premium for a leather band.

So no, I didn't miss his point. He failed to make one. But I guess I am supposed to be impressed by how much he makes.
 
Apple is putting so much into marketing this watch that it's going to make people want a smart watch.

Apple's goal is to impact people's lives. You can't do that if nobody buys your products.

It's called propaganda. The art of BS-ing and manipulation. Watch Cook saunter on stage, speaking slowly, pausing between words trying to think of a way to BS the world into buying their watch.

Apple's not the only company that uses propaganda. Ever seen how a Jehovah's Witness go to your door and talk like a slick snake oil salesman? That's Apple.

Until after today's keynote, will then we all see whether Apple's got their stuff together or getting lazy to the wrong path.
 
Alloys are a miracle of metallurgy; not a way to save a few bucks.

In this case, it's both a miracle _and_ a way to save half the gold cost for the same physical volume.

apple-gold-patent.png
 
No reason to weep. ~40% thicker and ~57% more expensive on the entry model, while offering significantly less flexibility/functionality ...

Who cares? I had a thick watch and it fit fine under my sleeve. Thicker doesn't mean less flexibility.

The Kairos has more practical functions than that OTHER watch.

So the less flexibility/functionality is all fluffy excuses. Not a convincing argument at all.
 
They won't do it. But even if they did make the watch modular in terms of chip upgrades, then the company will get attacked and criticized for not letting other products be upgradable as well especially the iPhone. In other words, if they do this with the watch, they will be under pressure to do the same for the iPhone.

It would be the most hypocritical thing if they make the chipset modular. Remember, all of their products have a unibody design which forces people to BUY the hardware every couple of years after being obsolete.

But if you want a watch that's upgradable, there's only one company that actually have their acts together more than Apple.

It's Kairos. It's a bit more expensive but far more practical.

Go look and weep: https://www.kairoswatches.com

The 1 chip system is much different than what goes into a laptop made with Intel and NVIDIA/AMD chips. I guess we'll see but I don't think it would be construed as hypocritical (like Apple would care anyway). It makes business sense at least.

That watch seems nice but is super thick. It's like they just glued a translucent smart watch onto a regular watch. No thanks (I also won't be buying an iWatch).
 
Your prices are in line with my expectations
Sport 349$
Watch 499$
Edition 999$

Start prices of course with the cheapest band and then plus for the better bands.

I actually think they're going to price the Edition as a luxury item, $5,000 at least.
 
The 1 chip system is much different than what goes into a laptop made with Intel and NVIDIA/AMD chips. I guess we'll see but I don't think it would be construed as hypocritical (like Apple would care anyway). It makes business sense at least.

That watch seems nice but is super thick. It's like they just glued a translucent smart watch onto a regular watch. No thanks (I also won't be buying an iWatch).

On the contrary, it wouldn't make business sense at all. If you could upgrade your Edition every year how is Apple going to make money then? You don't see Rolex taking your old watch and giving you a new one for free right? The Apple Watch Edition is supossed to be a keeper, you won't be able to exchange it for a new one, that's what the bands are for. Also, the people they're targeting with these watches don't need to save money.
 
So from all the comments, it sounds like one big question is:

- Will Cook bring up a Watch update commitment today? As in, a promise to support older models for X years.

Or will they just assume that people will treat it like other, less personal, devices and not worry about it so much?

If so, how does that contrast with their approach of selling it like a personal jewelry item?
 
So from all the comments, it sounds like one big question is:

- Will Cook bring up a Watch update commitment today? As in, a promise to support older models for X years.

Or will they just assume that people will treat it like other, less personal, devices and not worry about it so much?

If so, how does that contrast with their approach of selling it like a personal jewelry item?

Apple really doesn't need to explain its commitment to supporting older models of any of their products. If you are talking trade-in/replace, then that would be something entirely new, not just to Apple, but to the entire tech industry. They really don't need to go there.
 
On the contrary, it wouldn't make business sense at all. If you could upgrade your Edition every year how is Apple going to make money then? You don't see Rolex taking your old watch and giving you a new one for free right? The Apple Watch Edition is supossed to be a keeper, you won't be able to exchange it for a new one, that's what the bands are for. Also, the people they're targeting with these watches don't need to save money.

Who said every year? The watch bands perhaps but I don't expect people will want the newest gyrometer tech in the watch. Energy efficiency leaps are likely to occur over longer timescales. Comparing this watch to a Rolex which simply tells time makes no sense. Also, who said exchange if for a new one. You're arguing with yourself.
 
Who said every year? The watch bands perhaps but I don't expect people will want the newest gyrometer tech in the watch. Energy efficiency leaps are likely to occur over longer timescales. Comparing this watch to a Rolex which simply tells time makes no sense. Also, who said exchange if for a new one. You're arguing with yourself.

Ok, let me put it as simple as I can for you, the Apple Watch Edition won't be upgradable.
 
Apple really doesn't need to explain its commitment to supporting older models of any of their products. If you are talking trade-in/replace, then that would be something entirely new, not just to Apple, but to the entire tech industry. They really don't need to go there.

They likely won't go there. They don't "have" to go there. But they really should go there.
 
I think the 42mm stainless steel with link bracelet is going to come in at about $799 to $999. The closer it is to $799, the higher the likelihood that I'll buy one.

Mark

Well, the 42mm with link bracelet is apparently going to be $1099. That's $100 more than my highest expectation, but $500 cheaper than John Gruber's guess. I win! :)

Mark
 
Apple Watch Sport: $349/379
Apple Watch, steel, Sport Band: $499/529
Apple Watch, steel, Classic Buckle: $599/629
Apple Watch, steel, Milanese Loop: $699/729

No predictions about the other bands or the Edition, and it isn't even clear that that modern buckle and the Leather Loop should be more expensive than the Milanese Loop. But for sure Gruber's forecast for a leather band at $1299 (a $500 premium over the Milanese!) is absurd.

Actual prices:

Apple Watch, steel, Sport Band: $549/599
Apple Watch, steel, Classic Buckle: $649/699
Apple Watch, steel, Milanese Loop: $649/699

Apple Watch, steel, Leather Loop: $---/699

How'd I do, Mr. Gruber? How'd you do?

----------

Well, the 42mm with link bracelet is apparently going to be $1099. That's $100 more than my highest expectation, but $500 cheaper than John Gruber's guess. I win! :)

Mark

Beating Gruber was fish in a barrel, really. Maybe next time MR won't be citing him as an authority. But I would not get my hopes up.
 
Well, the 42mm with link bracelet is apparently going to be $1099. That's $100 more than my highest expectation, but $500 cheaper than John Gruber's guess. I win! :)

Mark

Oops, my mistake! The 42mm stainless steel with link bracelet is going to be $999! I nailed it! :)

Mark
 
...I know what it is already capable of. It is far more capable than people realize :)
They have a winner here and it will prove extremely valuable to those that buy the thing.
-K

Comment seemed incredible last night--rediculous today
 
I still wonder if we'll be surprised and the gold is cheaper than Gruber thinks, since it's not actually solid gold, but a mix of ceramic and gold. That to me seems like it would be cheaper. Here's what I would guess

Sport $349
Steel $549
Edition $1099

well, I was right about steel, but WAY off on the gold... a whole decimal place!
 
Well the Gruber's of the world are approaching this product entirely from the luxury watch space, so let's go all the way then. Luxury watches have to be serviced. Certain Watch models will be 'serviced' too. For sure battery and possibly SiP. Or Apple will allow you to trade in just the watch component for a new on that will still work with your existing bands.

Looks like greed was the option taken. Unless I missed it, there will be no upgrades for the watch, and every 12 months it will be replaced by a better model.

I hope apple at least offers a battery upgrade program, or this thing will devalue very fast once it can't hold battery for one day.
 
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