What to Expect at Apple's 'Spring Forward' Media Event

[Keirasplace]

If I had the money, I could imagine investing in an expensive watch, Rolex, Philippe Patek or whatever. But I would do so with the understanding that this was an heirloom, something I would itemize in my will and leave to my grandsonr. What I would NOT do is invest in a similarly-priced watch with the understanding that it would become obsolete within a very few years and replaced with an Apple Watch 2. I wonder if Apple really understands the fact that the purchase cycle for watches is fundamentally different from that of computing gear. I could possibly imagine myself picking up a low end Apple Watch just for grins, if I became convinced that it was useful enough to be worthy buy ing but I can easily see them flopping on the high end. Apple might sell a handful to the type of successful Hollywood type who owns and flies his own MIG-17. But does it make good economic sense to set up a production line for the benefit of such a small market?

I think your argument is the 1000th one that is EXACTLY the same, and yes, Ive, who seemingly owns 3 very expensive watches and led this project, knows about watches and its market.

Nobody gives a $350 or even $550 watch as an heirloom (you give your Iphone as an Heirloom?). This does more than tell time and be good looking; it is a major tech piece too. For the cheaper watches, most of the price is for the tech. Though, the steel bracelet for the mid range one will probably cost almost as much as the watch itself seemingly...

It is possible the high end watch will be partially updatable. But, it would probably easier for Apple to just swap and old gold watch for a new one for $1500 dollars every time you want to change (say every 2-3 years).

 

[melican]

The Watch is the new iPod Nano.

How will you connect your headphones to a watch? That will be awkward placement for a wire. And Apple doesn't seem hip to wireless. We still need iPods, especially for listening to music while exercising.

 

[nj-mac-user]

How will you connect your headphones to a watch? That will be awkward placement for a wire. And Apple doesn't seem hip to wireless. We still need iPods, especially for listening to music while exercising.

I'm wondering if current iPod sales agree with you.

 

[62tele]

Yes, the Apple Watch cannot do anything on its own, well except showing the time I guess. You need push service from an iPhone so that it gets pushed to the Apple Watch. No iPhone nearby, no communication to the outside world.

Apple can innovate my a**. Right back at Phil Schiller lol But seriously they did not take the opportunity to differentiate themselves in that. That's just sad.

Actually, I think you're just plain ignorant. Apple's presentation clearly demonstrated new, useful and innovative approaches to the smartwatch concept, particularly the digital crown navigation, etc.
It's also interesting to note that others are taking "style" more seriously as you see more sophisticated aesthetics fron other vendors.
More folks will copy Apple than not in the end.
Tethering the watch to the phone is not necessarily bad nor good.
One thing is certain, no vendor has yet offered a compelling, "have to have", game changing smartwatch. If anyone does my money is on a Apple.

I'm probably sitting out the first release because I'm not sure of its utility yet.

 

[Rogifan]

Yes, and the entry-level models of Apple Watch with the plastic band are the key here. They are pretty clearly the in-between price, with the up-sell being the dressier bands. If $400 is a ridiculous premium for Apple Watch (it is) then $500 for a leather band is off the charts.

He's stuck on the idea that the stainless steel model has to be at least twice the price of the aluminum model. That's where I part company with him. Another thing to think about: The stainless steel collection contains the most models (18 including different sizes). Why would Apple offer the most models for the stainless steel collection if they were going to price it out of reach for most people? I did tweet this question to Gruber but haven't gotten a response.

 

[bigpics]

I don't understand how Apple will be able to change much more over $350 for the higher end watches. After all the WATCH is the same, only the BAND changes. So if you want a stainless band, buy the $350 plastic band watch and I bet very soon there will be people selling $25 stainless bands or $35 gold plate bands.

If the watches themselves had different internal functions, more memory or a better battery or whatever then people would pay for that. But really how much will people pay for a nicer metallic color?

I think Gruber's too high on the base steel (and gold) prices, but OTOH, you're forgetting the sapphire crystal and ceramic back as further differentiators....

 

[EthanLMT]

How will you connect your headphones to a watch? That will be awkward placement for a wire. And Apple doesn't seem hip to wireless. We still need iPods, especially for listening to music while exercising.

Apple Watch has Bluetooth and it can store music but it doesn't have a headphone port, by this logic I can almost guarantee that Bluetooth ear buds will work with it. And considering apple has Beats now I'm sure they'll add to the Bluetooth collection...

 

[melican]

I'm wondering if current iPod sales agree with you.

I'm sure iPod sales aren't amazing (at least relative to the iPhone). But at the gym or out jogging, most people I see still use iPods. Not many people want to run 10 miles carrying an iPhone, or strap one to their arm while lifting weights.

 

[2457282]

I hear and read all the predictions. Some seem to be the same and some not. Most are speculative at best since there is no source for the predictions making it just guesses. With that spirit in mind, my predictions for tomorrow:

1. Tim will go through the numbers of how great Apple is, with a bazillion iphone sales, and a tramillion given to developers.

2. An update on the mothership and that tours will be available with ticket pre-sales begining at midnight.

3. The watch - lots of color/material bands, three watch levels - expensive, really expensive, and ridculously expensive. Expect a few videos of comercials and models strutting down runways.

4. a new itunes with beats integration that you can listen to on the fancy watch.

5. updated apple tv. Cable cutters around the world go into a frenzy as Apple finally gives us the ability to watch tv without first having to have a cable subscription. (30 days later we are all depressed as we realize the a la cart method is more expensive).

6. A ipad pro is announce. true multi-tasking will replace your laptop, even comes with a keyboard cover, thunderbolt port.

7. In case you really prefer a laptop, they will announce some minor tweeks.

8. The new line of carplay integration will be announced and several car companies will come on-stage.

9. iVehicles will be announced. the iBike and iCar. later in 2016 the iplane. iboat delayed to 2017.

10. /s

 

[asiga]

I don't think the Apple Watch will be a hit, which should be expected as other watches had the same fate. The watch is just for fashion, that's it.

I can understand its use if it had health capabilities but there aren't any. And it takes way too long to do one simple thing on the watch where you can just easily take your phone out of your pocket.

...and how does one update that thing anyways? And its dependent on your phone too, so you can't just leave your phone at home or something. Watches like these just aren't ready for primetime.

I also share your opinion. I love digital watches. I'm wearing a Kenneth Cole right now (the one with the round and thick steel body and dark face). Well designed digital watches are great. But these other (supposedly smart) watches are just nonsense in their current status and in the current market.

I just hope this new toy causes the "right" amount of harm to Apple (where "right" means big enough for learning a lesson, yet small enough for not affecting OS X and Mac)

 

[laurim]

I also share your opinion. I love digital watches. I'm wearing a Kenneth Cole right now (the one with the round and thick steel body and dark face). Well designed digital watches are great. But these other (supposedly smart) watches are just nonsense in their current status and in the current market.

I just hope this new toy causes the "right" amount of harm to Apple (where "right" means big enough for learning a lesson, yet small enough for not affecting OS X and Mac)

Well, that's constructive. Of course, many thought the iPad was silly and unnecessary when it first came out ("I have a laptop, that's all anyone needs", "What a stupid name!", "It requires a data plan to do X!") and we all know how that turned out...

 

[melican]

Apple Watch has Bluetooth and it can store music but it doesn't have a headphone port, by this logic I can almost guarantee that Bluetooth ear buds will work with it. And considering apple has Beats now I'm sure they'll add to the Bluetooth collection...

Maybe. But most Bluetooth headphones are pretty bulky. And I don't see many Bluetooth ear buds. The ones closest to Apple's current design are the Plantronics BackBeat Go 2, and it has a battery life of 4.5 hours. Apple would need to improve on that quite a bit.

I think we still need iPods even with the watch, at least until wireless headphones improve.

 

[TMRJIJ]

I don't think the Apple Watch will be a hit, which should be expected as other watches had the same fate. The watch is just for fashion, that's it.

I can understand its use if it had health capabilities but there aren't any. And it takes way too long to do one simple thing on the watch where you can just easily take your phone out of your pocket.

...and how does one update that thing anyways? And its dependent on your phone too, so you can't just leave your phone at home or something. Watches like these just aren't ready for primetime.

I don't think fashion is the main objective but it does help with marketing. Nobody wants to wear the same colored band.
There are some health features just not all of what Apple hoped for in this generation. How can you say it takes too long to do a simple thing when you never even used the watch?
I guess we'll find out the deal with updates tomorrow.

 

[macs4nw]

.....Apple is putting so much into marketing this watch that it's going to make people want a smart watch. This means Samsung and Pebble will very quickly duplicate whatever Apple makes, at a lower price.....

I don't believe the current Pebbles are even remotely in the same league as the upcoming AppleWatch, but you're right, Samsung and Pebble and others most likely will, and they too will have their slice of the pie.

.....Current smart watches cost between $200 and $300. I think if Apple makes a comparable product, it's safe to say it won't be costing more than $600, because at a price beyond that, people will just go for a different brand.....

Again, I beg to differ that the AppleWatch will be anything in scope and possibilities, like the current offering of smart watches from various manufacturers.

.....Apple's goal is to impact people's lives. You can't do that if nobody buys your products.....

Beyond what we already know, i.e. a starting price of $349, I'm not going to hazard a guess as to what the pricing structure is going to be, but Apple has been in the CE arena long enough to know what the market will bear for their products (with a proven track record), so I expect nothing different this time.

Imho, this puppy will change the way we interact with technology and each other, and sales will be unprecedented. An app ecosystem with zillions of upcoming apps will all but guarantee that.

This product will once again 'change everything'.

 

[TMRJIJ]

I hear and read all the predictions. Some seem to be the same and some not. Most are speculative at best since there is no source for the predictions making it just guesses. With that spirit in mind, my predictions for tomorrow:

1. Tim will go through the numbers of how great Apple is, with a bazillion iphone sales, and a tramillion given to developers.

2. An update on the mothership and that tours will be available with ticket pre-sales begining at midnight.

3. The watch - lots of color/material bands, three watch levels - expensive, really expensive, and ridculously expensive. Expect a few videos of comercials and models strutting down runways.

4. a new itunes with beats integration that you can listen to on the fancy watch.

5. updated apple tv. Cable cutters around the world go into a frenzy as Apple finally gives us the ability to watch tv without first having to have a cable subscription. (30 days later we are all depressed as we realize the a la cart method is more expensive).

6. A ipad pro is announce. true multi-tasking will replace your laptop, even comes with a keyboard cover, thunderbolt port.

7. In case you really prefer a laptop, they will announce some minor tweeks.

8. The new line of carplay integration will be announced and several car companies will come on-stage.

9. iVehicles will be announced. the iBike and iCar. later in 2016 the iplane. iboat delayed to 2017.

10. /s

I'm gonna hold you to 1-5, 7.

 

[CmdrLaForge]

That would be a $3,500 watch, would it not?

True. Just saying...

 

[IbisDoc]

After Dell raised the bar with the infinity display, those thick-bezeled MacBook Airs look downright ancient.

As for those high prices for a watch that needs to be charged every single day, there are no words.

 

[asiga]

Well, that's constructive. Of course, many thought the iPad was silly and unnecessary when it first came out ("I have a laptop, that's all anyone needs", "What a stupid name!", "It requires a data plan to do X!") and we all know how that turned out...

You can't compare the iPad with this toy. The iPad is partly useful, although it still cannot really substitute a Mac if you use it for real work. On the other hand, the watch toy is useless and a pain for those who wear it. You just can't compare them.

 

[laurim]

You can't compare the iPad with this toy. The iPad is partly useful, although it still cannot really substitute a Mac if you use it for real work. On the other hand, the watch toy is useless and a pain for those who wear it. You just can't compare them.

"Useless" and a "Pain" You're claiming a lot of usage experience for an item that isn't out yet, lol. I can think of a lot of uses for my life. I don't know why wearing a watch would be a pain. And I plug in my iPhone every night so adding the watch is no big deal. What pain?

 

[DerekAndonian]

At this point I'm still not overly interested. Time will tell

Heh heh... TIME, get it??

 

[Karma*Police]

These people need a thread of their own. Call it the "I don't want it and don't understand why anyone would" thread, and let them post all of their repetitious questions and complaints there. At this point, they are less than chaff.

Or just call it the mini Steve Ballmer thread for everyone who lacks imagination and talks incessantly about why something new can't/won't work. The irony is, these people are probably the same folks calling Steve Ballmer an idiot for missing the iPhone, iPod and iPad boat.

 

[bobob]

(supposedly smart) watches are just nonsense in their current status and in the current market.

I just hope this new toy causes the "right" amount of harm to Apple (where "right" means big enough for learning a lesson, yet small enough for not affecting OS X and Mac)

This insightful piece last month from Stratechery is worth reading in it's entirety, but the closing thoughts are spine tingling...

APPLE’S NEW MARKET

Christensen has previously explained that he got the iPhone wrong because it was disruptive to laptops, not cell phones. This, though, doesn’t particularly make sense given that the worldwide smartphone market vastly dwarfs laptops, and that while PCs aren’t growing, they still very much exist. Instead, as I argued in Obsoletive, the iPhone made the old idea of a cellphone obsolete: it was just another app on a computer that fit in your pocket.

The implications of this are even more profound than the fact nearly every person on planet earth will soon have a smartphone. Recall how Steve Jobs, after describing how a human on a bicycle is more efficient than even a condor, characterized computers:

We humans are tool builders and we can fashion tools that amplify these abilities that we have to spectacular magnitudes. And so for me a computer has always been a bicycle for the mind.

That bicycle is now with us every where we go; what Apple is building are new paths.

In that respect, suppose Christensen is right: maybe in the long run everything Apple does will be modularized. However, if modularization wins in a mature market, that means – as Christensen says – that integration wins in a new one. And a new market is exactly where the iPhone is headed: Apple is on the verge of leaving the narrowly-defined smartphone market behind entirely, instead making a play to be involved in every aspect of its consumers’ lives. And, if the importance of an integrated experience matter more with your phone than your PC, because you use it more, how much more important is an integrated experience that touches every detail of your life?

In fact, if there is a flaw in this vision, it’s that even pulling an iPhone from your pocket is too cumbersome. What if you could interact with your home, your car, retail, the cloud, or even your own body with something even more personal and accessible?

 

[cohibadad]

Why pay for premium?

I just don't get why anyone would pay a premium for Gold or even Stainless steel for a watch that will obviously evolve with each new generation. The size will decrease. The internals will improve. And you will be stuck with an outdated overpriced piece of bling that has lost it's appeal. If it was a small difference in price I'd consider the sapphire and steel, but not for double the price.

 

[zhenya]

There are a few things going on that make me think Gruber's on the right track with pricing. In watches, as most luxury goods, price is a differentiator of its own. Pricing everything but the base model high has two advantages for Apple. It makes the high-end market take them seriously which in turn will help turn the smart-watch from a geek-accessory to a credible fashion item that everyone will want (with the entry level model available for the mass-market), AND, pricing like this is something that none of its competitors can credibly do. Samsung or Motorola or Pebble will never get away with selling multi-thousand dollar watches. Apple probably will. This effectively shuts the door on the copycat watch. There will be the Apple watch. And there will be everything else.

 

[gmanist1000]

$749 starting price for the Steel model? That's ridiculous, if true.