With all the doom and gloom stories out there, it's hard to imagine that Apple will still be around in 2020 or that we'll still be using iPhones... but of course it will be and we will be. Even if everyone stopped buying Apple products today, the amount of billions they have in the bank would allow them to continue operating for years. And we'll still be using iPhones in 2020; technology moves fast, but not that fast. Think about all the flying cars we have...
So since we know that Apple will be around in 2020 for sure, and we know that we'll still be using phones and tablets in 2020 for sure, I started thinking about other definite for sure conclusions we can make.
For example, by 2020, it's certain that:
Annoyed that the iPad 2 is staying around for another year? That'll be gone in 2020. You will not see a single Apple device without a Retina screen in 2020. Think about it, today is 2013. Tomorrow is 2020. Will there really be any non-Retina screens left?
Tired of the 4S sticking around for another year? That'll be gone too. Every iPhone will have a Lightning connector. Every iPhone will have Touch ID. Every iPad will have Touch ID. Every iOS device will be available in a 128 GB storage option.
There will be not a single iOS device that doesn't have a Retina display, that doesn't have Touch ID, that isn't running on 64-bit. All of this will be commonplace across the board of all of Apple's devices.
This is stuff that we can predict with absolute certainty, because it's 2020. It's not 2013, it's not 2014, it's 2020. That's more than six years of upgrades. Six years of upgrades. Just think about that. If iPhone 4S seems ancient to you, how will the 5S compare six years later? Six iPhones later?
How will iOS compare six versions later? If you don't like iOS 7 today, is it plausible for you to imagine how it might improve over six generations? By that time, we might even have another redesign and go back to real buttons.
Is it plausible we'll be able to choose a custom virtual keyboard on iOS devices in 2014? Maybe. We don't know. Is it realistic that we'll have a choice of a keyboard in 2020? Yes, with absolute certainty. Without a doubt.
A matter of time
Realize that most of your frustrations with Apple today are simply a matter of time. Why is Apple taking so long to release a bigger iPhone? When will I have my MacBook Air with Retina display? What about my iMac with Retina display? When will the iPad Pro come out? When will we see iWatch?
Viewed with a one-year frame in mind, these questions are frustrating, because deep down, you know we won't see all of those things in 2014. Not a chance.
But when you look all the way to 2020, the picture is crystal clear. Of course all the displays on all the MacBooks and Macs will be Retina. Of course all iOS devices will have Touch ID. Again, we're not talking about 2014. We're talking about 2020. Can you see how the long-term perspective brings things clearer into view?
When Apple speaks about the Lightning connector lasting it for the next 10 years and the naming scheme of Mavericks lasting it for the next decade, they're not kidding around. They're not exaggerating. They know that 2020 will come and they are working towards it one step at a time. They may not have all the technologies or the vision or the products that they'll have in 2020, but they have a roadmap and they're not just thinking about 2014 like all of us are.
And we haven't even began to cover new technologies! A few months ago, a fingerprint scanner seems plausible but not certain. It was just a rumour. We didn't know how well it would work or whether it would be useful. Now, we expect it on every device. We want every iOS device to have Touch ID. Amazing, isn't it?
We fall into the trap of thinking that it's done. That there are no more new features. "Well, we've got Touch ID, what else do we need? Wireless charging? NFC? Solar charging? I thought Apple wasn't interested in any of that!"
Yes, we'll have a bigger display for iPhone. Yes, we'll get a 128 GB iPhone. Yes, it'll be faster. But think, really think about this. We've got six generations of iPhones ahead of us until we reach 2020. Even with Apple's "slow pace", is a bigger display and more storage options really the only thing on their mind? Or have they got more "useless" features like Retina displays and Touch ID that will completely revolutionize the way we use our devices?
So for those of you who think that Apple still doesn't have any surprises up its sleeve, just think of 2020. Is it really that far-out that by 2020 we'll have some incredible new technologies, that even if we're contemplating them now, we're not really thinking about their consequences or believing in them?
There Will Always be an iPad 2
Although 2020 sounds like a utopia (Retina displays on every MacBook? Touch ID on every device? A bigger iPad Pro?) you do have to realize that there will always be what is the equivalent of the iPad 2. There will always be the newest and latest (example: iPhone 9S) and then there will be iPhone 9.
The good news is that the figurative "iPad 2" or "iPhone 4S" is always improving, to the point where Apple can repackage last year's tech into a 5C and have it run iOS 7 and work perfectly.
So perhaps there won't be any more jarring of "I want Retina displays" like you get when you pick up the first iPad mini, but... there will be the equivalent of that first iPad mini. So in 2020, there might be an iPhone 9C with Touch ID and A8 chip, but no wireless charging, no solar charging, etc. (I'm just making these features up, but you get the idea).
***
Even though 2020 seems like far away, just remind yourself, it will get here. It's inevitable. No matter what you do, or how much you agonize about current Apple shortcomings, one day you'll wake up and it'll be 2020, and your iPad will have Touch ID just like you wanted, your iMac will have a Retina display just like you wanted, iOS 9 will be out and vastly improve over iOS 7 and 8, and that 4K Cinema Display you wanted? That'll be out too.
It's kinda fun to think about, isn't it?
Do you guys have any other predictions that sound unrealistic for 2014 but are completely plausible by 2020?
So since we know that Apple will be around in 2020 for sure, and we know that we'll still be using phones and tablets in 2020 for sure, I started thinking about other definite for sure conclusions we can make.
For example, by 2020, it's certain that:
- all iPhones and iPads will have a Retina display
- all iPhones and iPads will have Touch ID
- iMac will come with a Retina display
- MacBook Air will come with a Retina display
- iPhone will come with a 128 GB option
- iOS will allow you to use a custom keyboard
- etc.
Annoyed that the iPad 2 is staying around for another year? That'll be gone in 2020. You will not see a single Apple device without a Retina screen in 2020. Think about it, today is 2013. Tomorrow is 2020. Will there really be any non-Retina screens left?
Tired of the 4S sticking around for another year? That'll be gone too. Every iPhone will have a Lightning connector. Every iPhone will have Touch ID. Every iPad will have Touch ID. Every iOS device will be available in a 128 GB storage option.
There will be not a single iOS device that doesn't have a Retina display, that doesn't have Touch ID, that isn't running on 64-bit. All of this will be commonplace across the board of all of Apple's devices.
This is stuff that we can predict with absolute certainty, because it's 2020. It's not 2013, it's not 2014, it's 2020. That's more than six years of upgrades. Six years of upgrades. Just think about that. If iPhone 4S seems ancient to you, how will the 5S compare six years later? Six iPhones later?
How will iOS compare six versions later? If you don't like iOS 7 today, is it plausible for you to imagine how it might improve over six generations? By that time, we might even have another redesign and go back to real buttons.
Is it plausible we'll be able to choose a custom virtual keyboard on iOS devices in 2014? Maybe. We don't know. Is it realistic that we'll have a choice of a keyboard in 2020? Yes, with absolute certainty. Without a doubt.
A matter of time
Realize that most of your frustrations with Apple today are simply a matter of time. Why is Apple taking so long to release a bigger iPhone? When will I have my MacBook Air with Retina display? What about my iMac with Retina display? When will the iPad Pro come out? When will we see iWatch?
Viewed with a one-year frame in mind, these questions are frustrating, because deep down, you know we won't see all of those things in 2014. Not a chance.
But when you look all the way to 2020, the picture is crystal clear. Of course all the displays on all the MacBooks and Macs will be Retina. Of course all iOS devices will have Touch ID. Again, we're not talking about 2014. We're talking about 2020. Can you see how the long-term perspective brings things clearer into view?
When Apple speaks about the Lightning connector lasting it for the next 10 years and the naming scheme of Mavericks lasting it for the next decade, they're not kidding around. They're not exaggerating. They know that 2020 will come and they are working towards it one step at a time. They may not have all the technologies or the vision or the products that they'll have in 2020, but they have a roadmap and they're not just thinking about 2014 like all of us are.
And we haven't even began to cover new technologies! A few months ago, a fingerprint scanner seems plausible but not certain. It was just a rumour. We didn't know how well it would work or whether it would be useful. Now, we expect it on every device. We want every iOS device to have Touch ID. Amazing, isn't it?
We fall into the trap of thinking that it's done. That there are no more new features. "Well, we've got Touch ID, what else do we need? Wireless charging? NFC? Solar charging? I thought Apple wasn't interested in any of that!"
Yes, we'll have a bigger display for iPhone. Yes, we'll get a 128 GB iPhone. Yes, it'll be faster. But think, really think about this. We've got six generations of iPhones ahead of us until we reach 2020. Even with Apple's "slow pace", is a bigger display and more storage options really the only thing on their mind? Or have they got more "useless" features like Retina displays and Touch ID that will completely revolutionize the way we use our devices?
So for those of you who think that Apple still doesn't have any surprises up its sleeve, just think of 2020. Is it really that far-out that by 2020 we'll have some incredible new technologies, that even if we're contemplating them now, we're not really thinking about their consequences or believing in them?
There Will Always be an iPad 2
Although 2020 sounds like a utopia (Retina displays on every MacBook? Touch ID on every device? A bigger iPad Pro?) you do have to realize that there will always be what is the equivalent of the iPad 2. There will always be the newest and latest (example: iPhone 9S) and then there will be iPhone 9.
The good news is that the figurative "iPad 2" or "iPhone 4S" is always improving, to the point where Apple can repackage last year's tech into a 5C and have it run iOS 7 and work perfectly.
So perhaps there won't be any more jarring of "I want Retina displays" like you get when you pick up the first iPad mini, but... there will be the equivalent of that first iPad mini. So in 2020, there might be an iPhone 9C with Touch ID and A8 chip, but no wireless charging, no solar charging, etc. (I'm just making these features up, but you get the idea).
***
Even though 2020 seems like far away, just remind yourself, it will get here. It's inevitable. No matter what you do, or how much you agonize about current Apple shortcomings, one day you'll wake up and it'll be 2020, and your iPad will have Touch ID just like you wanted, your iMac will have a Retina display just like you wanted, iOS 9 will be out and vastly improve over iOS 7 and 8, and that 4K Cinema Display you wanted? That'll be out too.
It's kinda fun to think about, isn't it?
Do you guys have any other predictions that sound unrealistic for 2014 but are completely plausible by 2020?
