What's the future of the iPad (and tablets generally)?

[Gomff]

This may be fine for office work in an office or home environment but speech control is not always appropriate. Firstly, in a public space like on a train or plane, people may not necessarily want others to hear what it is they are writing / dictating.

Also, you're assuming that the only tasks people do on laptops are document creation type work. What about artists, designers, programmers? I doubt that speech control is the most efficient manner of creation for these types of tasks.

I find it hard to imagine a world where the keyboard has no place in some way or another.

 

[ravenas]

This may be fine for office work in an office or home environment but speech control is not always appropriate. Firstly, in a public space like on a train or plane, people may not necessarily want others to hear what it is they are writing / dictating.

Also, you're assuming that the only tasks people do on laptops are document creation type work. What about artists, designers, programmers? I doubt that speech control is the most efficient manner of creation for these types of tasks.

I find it hard to imagine a world where the keyboard has no place in some way or another.

Keyboards will never be completely passe, Star Trek tells us that. But they will also become far more virtual and customizable. Instead of the traditional tactile buttons stuck on springy posts, we'll have virtual displays that can be configured for different tasks. Letter keys for word composition, shorthand coding keys for programming, a selection of virtual brushes and paint palettes for graphic design, simplified scrolling and data entry for web surfing, hand recognition for signatures and handwriting.

A lot of what we see in the Android-sphere with customizable keyboards.

But the most notable thing is that we won't have different devices as much as different aspects of the same device. Like the headsup tablet screen that can be detached from a keyboard dock to become a reader or portable video screen.

Voice activation is not feasible in very public places, true, but it will be integrated in our less public realities. The car, the office, the home. While riding the bus or walking around in public the biggest difference will be that our mobile device (be it the form factor of a tablet or a smartphone) will be continuously linked to our personalized AI. The AI will be the butler of our digital lives organizing exactly where our data is and helping bringing it to our attention when we need it. Our data will live in the Cloud, which will probably be a combination of 3rd party/away from home services (Google, Amazon, Apple, Dropbox, Skydrive. etc.) and a home server. Our AI will be charged with protecting our privacy as well as seeing that the right data gets to the right eyes when needed.

I'm beginning to think in terms of the next generation. A decade or so from now. I can see our digital butlers taking on some anthropomorphic characteristics. We'll probably name our AIs, or else they will take on our virtual avatar IDs.

As for the future of tablets over the next few years I see development centering on battery life, processing power and durability. A tablet cannot remain the fragile toy we buy expensive sleeves to protect. They have to be built to be dropped, stepped on and kicked. Jean Luc Picard did not baby his datapads. They frequently got tossed around and thrown to the floor.

Storage space will probably be something that'll consume buyer's attention until we have a feasible way of retrieving our data from the cloud without breaking data caps. Or dealing with network logjams. If you want to watch that latest home video of your kid, you want it now and in full 1080P. This aspect of development depends solely on wireless carriers becoming more reasonable about their prices and bandwidth limitations. 2-5GB caps will become ludicrous as we're engaging in more regular video calling and wireless movie streaming.

An interesting video showcasing one possible future was made by Corning here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6Cf7IL_eZ38

I really like the idea of how mobile phones interact with virtual anywhere computer inputs and how the ebook reader resembles a flexible transparency sheet.

 

[bpaluzzi]

People are still asking for a full desktop OS on a tablet? I really wish there was a "DECVAXRumors.com" around in the 80s. I'm sure it would have been filled with the same kind of short-sighted, visionless people that frequent this site.

"Noone will ever want a PC, they can't do nearly any of the work as a minicomputer. Graphical interfaces are a fad! Enjoy your toys!"

I've said it before, and I'll say it again:
Thankfully most of you will never be in a position of power at any company.

 

[wackymacky]

Apple believes that the desktop as a mainstream computer is dying. Steve et al keen harping on about the post PC era.

The who set up of Lion is trying to make this transition.

A few months ago I was against it, but now I use my iPad as my main computing (Internet / email) device and only go to my 27# iMac once or twice a week. I need to do some proper computing (what a waste of money that was!)

 

[OSMac]

MS will become a key player as they alone bridge the gap between tablet and PC with detachable screen laptops.

PC is about content creation, tablets about consumption.

MS will continue to dominate with business and students that rely on Office. MS will offer a touch OS layer that will allow dual purpose , detactable screen laptops to gain strong market growth.

Apple amazing run of growth will subside due to saturation and change of leadership. Their smartphone will remain popular but their OS and iPad growth will have peaked as people begin use the same MS OS device for creation and consumption.

 

[Gomff]

People are still asking for a full desktop OS on a tablet? I really wish there was a "DECVAXRumors.com" around in the 80s. I'm sure it would have been filled with the same kind of short-sighted, visionless people that frequent this site.

"Noone will ever want a PC, they can't do nearly any of the work as a minicomputer. Graphical interfaces are a fad! Enjoy your toys!"

I've said it before, and I'll say it again:
Thankfully most of you will never be in a position of power at any company.

Thanks for setting us all straight in such a humble, polite manner. I suppose I should wind up my company that I've been running for the last ten years, or at least hand over my company director's position to someone more esteemed.

 

[mikethebigo]

MS will become a key player as they alone bridge the gap between tablet and PC with detachable screen laptops.

PC is about content creation, tablets about consumption.

MS will continue to dominate with business and students that rely on Office. MS will offer a touch OS layer that will allow dual purpose , detactable screen laptops to gain strong market growth.

Apple amazing run of growth will subside due to saturation and change of leadership. Their smartphone will remain popular but their OS and iPad growth will have peaked as people begin use the same MS OS device for creation and consumption.

MS can't make desktop class software lightweight enough to run on current ARM hardware. By the time the hardware gets powerful enough, or Windows gets optimized enough, the iPad will already own the market. Hell, lines are still forming for the thing 2 weeks after launch.

 

[mwulf67]

People are still asking for a full desktop OS on a tablet? I really wish there was a "DECVAXRumors.com" around in the 80s. I'm sure it would have been filled with the same kind of short-sighted, visionless people that frequent this site.

"Noone will ever want a PC, they can't do nearly any of the work as a minicomputer. Graphical interfaces are a fad! Enjoy your toys!"

I've said it before, and I'll say it again:
Thankfully most of you will never be in a position of power at any company.

I don’t know about a full desktop OS, but someday, at the very least, I am going to want/need a tablet that does not have a mandatory symbiotic relationship with iTunes…

 

[dmaul1114]

People are still asking for a full desktop OS on a tablet?

No. People are just asking for some more features. Like an MS office type suite that doesn't suck balls like iWorks and is actually compatible with the desktop version of office rather than screwing up formatting.

Support for USB drives so we can get files on and off the device without needing a computer or internet access for the cloud (say to get a presentation on a thumbdrive to load on a computer in a conference room).

It doesn't need to be anywhere near a full desktop OS. Just some more thought into the OS to add some features, some one to step up and make better productivity software.

I'm not holding my breath on Apple to do any of that. They're content to make toys/consumption devices.

I'll likely happily ditch my iPad 2 for some windows-based tablet in a couple of years as they're more likely to focus more on the business world and Macs aren't used in my field/company anyway.

 

[chiefpavvy]

I think we have to put it in perspective of the common, typical PC user. Those of us here are not the common user...

For most folks, iOS is fantastic as it is. They don't want to manage a file system and all the headaches that go with it.

I've found that with Dropbox, I can do pretty much anything file-wise on the iPad. Any app worth its weight has Dropbox integration now and it is so easy to grab/dump files there. I think with the advent of the cloud we're moving away from the necessity (and constant headaches) of a local file system that needs constant management and upkeep. Sure some hard-core users and content PRODUCERS will find that lacking and unacceptable but for 99%...it's exactly what they want!

As for the tablet form-factor itself, I really do believe we are in the very early stages of a dramatic transformation. I don't know if it will be 2, 3, 5 years? But I have no doubt iPad-style devices will become the de-facto standard in homes and many businesses as well. Steve has had a mixed record on predictions over the years, but after using iPad and now iPad 2 I can see he is absolutely right about us entering a 'Post-PC Era'. It's only a matter of time.

 

[thelookingglass]

I think we have to put it in perspective of the common, typical PC user. Those of us here are not the common user...

For most folks, iOS is fantastic as it is. They don't want to manage a file system and all the headaches that go with it.

I've found that with Dropbox, I can do pretty much anything file-wise on the iPad. Any app worth its weight has Dropbox integration now and it is so easy to grab/dump files there. I think with the advent of the cloud we're moving away from the necessity (and constant headaches) of a local file system that needs constant management and upkeep. Sure some hard-core users and content PRODUCERS will find that lacking and unacceptable but for 99%...it's exactly what they want!

Yah, but I think what some of us are saying is that we want just a little bit more functionality. Take the Dropbox implementation on Android. I can open a document in Dropbox and then make changes. Dropbox than automatically syncs the edited draft back to the cloud. On the iOS version of Dropbox, the only way to do this is to use a program like Docs To Go which incorporates Dropbox syncing. There's no way do this through the Dropbox app itself, which makes the app a little bit handicapped.

Not asking for iOS to be a full desktop class OS, but there are clearly certain basic things that we can't do or can't do easily on current iOS devices. Don't even get me started on the ability to attach different documents to emails without using third party app like Goodreader or the ability to upload files through a browser...

 

[DiamondMac]

I suspect we have no idea what the future holds for the iPad because technology 2-3 years from now could bring the iPad into all sorts of new areas, it just depends on what exactly is added to it.

 

[Carouser]

I agree with bpaluzzi 100%. The problem is that many people equate 'more functionality' with 'being more like a desktop OS'. On those terms, a position that the desktop paradigm is a bad choice for future tablets is met with disbelief and sputtering: "H-h-how could you be against increased functionality?" Drag/drop generalized filesystems are only a means to an end; I think Apple knows this pretty well and if they can implement a better means for the same outcome they will.

there are clearly certain basic things that we can't do or can't do easily on current iOS devices. Don't even get me started on the ability to attach different documents to emails without using third party app like Goodreader or the ability to upload files through a browser...

Could you give me a specific example where you need to attach different documents to e-mails? I can't think of very many situations where there isn't another way to communicate the same info in a way which is bettet for both sender and receiver. Importing a filesystem and the attendant side-effects strikes me as an inelegant solution.

 

[Jarcrew]

I've had my iPad a day and I can already see where it's going for me. In one day the iPad has proven itself an absolutely remarkable revision tool - I have GoodReader open with all my lecture notes on it, and FlashCards++ running behind it so I can jot down revision questions for myself. There's no distractions, nothing peeking out from behind a window or flashing in the menu bar, you're just focused on what you're looking at. Also, being able to stick on YouTube while I'm cooking is a huge plus. Watched Conan O'Brien's Google talk while I was rustling up the pasta.

I see what Steve Jobs meant when he said that it had to be better than a smartphone or a laptop in key areas. And it is.

 

[dmaul1114]

Could you give me a specific example where you need to attach different documents to e-mails? I can't think of very many situations where there isn't another way to communicate the same info in a way which is bettet for both sender and receiver. Importing a filesystem and the attendant side-effects strikes me as an inelegant solution.

I work in academia. I e-mail all kinds of files to colleagues. Papers, PDFs, data sets, powerpoints etc.

If it's someone I work with regularly, I can just set up a sharing folder on Dropbox depending on how comfortable I am using the cloud for whatever I'm sending (I trust e-mail security more). But many times I'm just e-mailing publications to a bunch of people in my field to promote my work etc.

Just playing devil's advocate as I don't really care that much about that on the iPad as I think the mail app stinks in general and mostly don't use it anyway.

But there are needs to just attach files to e-mails to send to multiple people at once etc. that things like cloud sharing just don't work for if it's a every once in a while type of file sharing etc. E-mail is one of the best ways to send things to people quickly and easily--especially multiple people at once.


People just come from different view points as well. I'm a PC user and always will be. I prefer file systems and things they way they are. I'm not the typical Apple fan that embraces changes. I'm more of a stuck in my ways guy who'd rather just do things the way I know how than to have to adapt my work flow and learn new things.

So I just don't currently bother doing much work-related tasks on the iPad as I just find most things easier to just do on my PC. I've integrated a few things like taking short meeting notes on it and sending it to Evernote, ditching my old palm pilot and using Google Calendar and synching that to the iPad calendar, put my library of PDFs of research articles into Goodreader so I have them all on one device and can reference them when writing articles etc.

But other things like document creating, sending work e-mails, working on data and data analysis etc. just can't be done at all or can't be done in a manner that's easy enough for me to bother doing it on the iPad when I can do it on my PC with less hassle.

And I'd like a tablet that was a few steps more toward a PC (but not a full PC OS by any means) so I could at least get by with only taking the nice and light tablet on the road vs. having to take a heavy laptop (again, I don't travel often enough to buy a 2nd, more portable laptop that I'd never use at home).

Others like new tech, like figuring out new ways to do things and are more willing to jump through hoops and deal with learning curves while adjusting their workflow to new gadgets. More power to them, but that's just not me. I like my iPad, but mainly as a media consumption task, with some work related reading (I don't like doing revisions or mark up on it much, unlike the poster above--easier on a printout or the PC for me), note taking etc. mixed in. But ideally I'd prefer to move onto a tablet that was a bit more work functional for me down the road, so I'm hoping MS hits a home run with their Tablet OS in a year or two.