The only honest answer is that we don't really know. All three of the options you suggest are real possibilities. The various leakers/supply chain reporters can give some context, but even the more reputable ones get stuff wrong all the time.
I think we can infer that the design has been finished for some time, but there are serious constraints in manufacturing them (or more specifically, the successor to the H1 chip) in sufficient quantities. Quite how quickly this can be overcome is impossible to say.