When do you think M3 MacBook Airs will be out?

[Bel Marduk]

I'd love an M3 machine and my old MBA is showing some wear..

Do you think they will release it with a press release in January?
March event?
WWDC?
Next October?

 

[uller6]

I think they'll wait until the demand for the M3 MacBook pros dies down, then they'll release the M3 MacBook Air. So either March or June!

 

[JPack]

Base M3 MBP now starts at $1,599 (it was $1,299 before). So it's unlikely to pull in much more customers than M2. I'd say spring is likely and based on Gurman reports on EVT timeline.

 

[Bel Marduk]

Base M3 MBP now starts at $1,599 (it was $1,299 before). So it's unlikely to pull in much more customers than M2. I'd say spring is likely and based on Gurman reports on EVT timeline.

Thats why I’m thinking it will be sooner rather than later. The $1500 15 inch Air was a huge sales disappointment for Apple and I think they’re going to want to get those sales up next year… people just dont want to pay that much for a laptop these days.

 

[svish]

Expecting the new Air to be released between April to June 2024

 

[supermars]

Hope for 15 inch MacBook Air M3 as soon as possible 🙏

 

[Mac mini power user]

Possibly in March or April. I don't think it will be done via a press release though, I imagine we'll get another mini-event where they also introduce the M3 Mac mini, and possibly the M3 Ultra.

 

[Bel Marduk]

Hope for 15 inch MacBook Air M3 as soon as possible 🙏

You wouldn't feel at all annoyed if they released two in less than a year? I've got to think that if I was a MBP owner and bought the one released in January and there's a new one already I wouldn't like it.

 

[jdb8167]

Thats why I’m thinking it will be sooner rather than later. The $1500 15 inch Air was a huge sales disappointment for Apple and I think they’re going to want to get those sales up next year… people just dont want to pay that much for a laptop these days.

Introduced way too late in the M2 cycle. Everyone knows it is going to be replaced soon. I bet the M3 version sells better.

 

[nonns]

You wouldn't feel at all annoyed if they released two in less than a year? I've got to think that if I was a MBP owner and bought the one released in January and there's a new one already I wouldn't like it.

That’s going to happen anyway. I’m in the market for a 13 inch air. If I buy one now and they release one in march I’m not going to like it. I might be able to hold off a month bu really beyond that no.

 

[azentropy]

Thats why I’m thinking it will be sooner rather than later. The $1500 15 inch Air was a huge sales disappointment for Apple and I think they’re going to want to get those sales up next year… people just dont want to pay that much for a laptop these days.

IMO the problem with the 15" is the RAM and memory configurations at those prices. Retailers can't carry the higher RAM configurations, so the price ends up being even higher as you then need to go BTO instead of being able to get a discounted "retail" version. Unfortunately with the M3 iMac release, it doesn't seem Apple is addressing that issue.

 

[AJB1971]

I think it will be around March.

It’s noticeable that a lot of M3 Mac variants are still showing as available for delivery or collection on launch day. If rumours of supply chain issues for the M3 processors are true, that would suggest sales aren’t great.

Apple probably hoped a lot of existing Air buyers would be tempted by the base M3 MacBook Pro, but it’s too expensive. You can get a refurbished MacBook Pro with the M2 Pro chip and double the RAM for less.

This should put pressure on Apple to upgrade both Air models fairly soon. The 13-inch M2 was released back in July 2022, so it is due.

 

[Saturn007]

IMO the problem with the 15" is the RAM and memory configurations at those prices. Retailers can't carry the higher RAM configurations, so the price ends up being even higher as you then need to go BTO instead of being able to get a discounted "retail" version. Unfortunately with the M3 iMac release, it doesn't seem Apple is addressing that issue.

That’s changed of late. (Indeed, I wonder if Apple prevented them from doing that or they simply chose not to as it meant hassles managing inventory.)

Retailers such as Best Buy and Costco have recently been selling 15” MBAs in 8/512 and 16 GB / 1 TB configs — and for $200-$250 off!

In an array of colors, too.

See https://appleinsider.com/articles/2...-air-with-16gb-ram-1tb-ssd-for-as-low-as-1599

and

Best Buy: Apple MacBook Air 15" Laptop M2 chip 16GB Memory 1TB SSD Midnight Z18U0LL/A

Shop Apple MacBook Air 15" Laptop M2 chip 16GB Memory 1TB SSD Midnight at Best Buy. Find low everyday prices and buy online for delivery or in-store pick-up. Price Match Guarantee.

www.bestbuy.com

and

MacBook Air laptop (15-inch) - Apple M2 chip, 8-core CPU, 10-core GPU, 8GB memory, 512GB SSD storage

MacBook Air laptop (15-inch) - Apple M2 chip, 8-core CPU, 10-core GPU, 8GB memory, 512GB SSD storage

www.costco.com

Costco even sells Apple Care+ discounted to $179, making the savings even better!

The question is whether the M3 offers any real advantages to most MBA users over the M2. At these discounted prices, the M2 models would seem a steal!

 

[T'hain Esh Kelch]

Late February, early March.

 

[gpat]

It wouldn't surprise me if Apple skipped to M4 altogether for the Airs.

 

[Mac mini power user]

It wouldn't surprise me if Apple skipped to M4 altogether for the Airs.

I don't think they will, simply for the fact that current sales are probably lacklustre (the MBA and MBP are by far Apple's best-selling Macs, particularly since the switch to Apple Silicon). The base M3 will still be a decent improvement for M1 MBA users, and a giant leap for those on Intel Retina-display MacBook Airs.

 

[JPack]

It wouldn't surprise me if Apple skipped to M4 altogether for the Airs.

In general, Apple would want to use M3 in as many products as possible (where it makes sense in terms of cost). This helps drive down NRE costs for that chip.

 

[jdb8167]

It wouldn't surprise me if Apple skipped to M4 altogether for the Airs.

Again, the MacBook Air is their best selling Mac, why would they skip this generation? Sales would drop through the floor if they did that. I suspect that Apple is already feeling the pain of not updating the 13" M2 MacBook Air for almost 500 days. Waiting until late 2024 or early 2025 for the next update would be a big problem.

 

[azentropy]

That’s changed of late. (Indeed, I wonder if Apple prevented them from doing that or they simply chose not to as it meant hassles managing inventory.)

Retailers such as Best Buy and Costco have recently been selling 15” MBAs in 8/512 and 16 GB / 1 TB configs — and for $200-$250 off!

In an array of colors, too.

See https://appleinsider.com/articles/2...-air-with-16gb-ram-1tb-ssd-for-as-low-as-1599

and

Best Buy: Apple MacBook Air 15" Laptop M2 chip 16GB Memory 1TB SSD Midnight Z18U0LL/A

Shop Apple MacBook Air 15" Laptop M2 chip 16GB Memory 1TB SSD Midnight at Best Buy. Find low everyday prices and buy online for delivery or in-store pick-up. Price Match Guarantee.

www.bestbuy.com

and

MacBook Air laptop (15-inch) - Apple M2 chip, 8-core CPU, 10-core GPU, 8GB memory, 512GB SSD storage

MacBook Air laptop (15-inch) - Apple M2 chip, 8-core CPU, 10-core GPU, 8GB memory, 512GB SSD storage

www.costco.com

Costco even sells Apple Care+ discounted to $179, making the savings even better!

The question is whether the M3 offers any real advantages to most MBA users over the M2. At these discounted prices, the M2 models would seem a steal!

I've haven't seen Costco (my retailer of choice) carry the 16GB MBA. The link you provide is still to the 8GB version (512GB) which is a standard retail version. I have seen Bestbuy occasionally carry some 16GB versions, but usually limited (like I think last time was 16GB/1TB in midnight only). The 1TB isn't much of a deal for me as I don't need that much and it jacks up the price $200 which kinda negates any savings.

 

[James Godfrey]

Considering the Airs are targeted at students and the study year starts in September generally, coupled with the fact that the 15” only launched at WWDC this year, I expect them to launch at WWDC 2024. Further it’s common now for Apple to keep their ‘cheaper’ models on older silicon for a lot longer and generally refresh with the latest chipset towards the end of the chip cycle.

The first quarter of 2024 is going to have a heavy focus on Vision Pro (which comes with M2) which will likely ship in the spring (yes that’s still ‘early’ 2024 in Apple’s eyes) so I really can’t see them going here’s Vision Pro with M2 a super powerful chip, oh and you can use it with your even more powerful M3 MacBook Air, it would just be a poor marketing decision.

 

[James Godfrey]

Again, the MacBook Air is their best selling Mac, why would they skip this generation? Sales would drop through the floor if they did that. I suspect that Apple is already feeling the pain of not updating the 13" M2 MacBook Air for almost 500 days. Waiting until late 2024 or early 2025 for the next update would be a big problem.

I doubt it, sales are hurting because of the vast sales during covid. The bulk of the target market for the Airs don’t buy because it’s got M3, they buy it because it’s a MacBook Air and Apple’s latest one at that.

Them rushing an M3 version out of the door when they likely have a huge surplus of M2 chips makes zero sense.

 

[James Godfrey]

Late February, early March.

Right around the time when they release Vision Pro with M2… that won’t be great for marketing unfortunately

 

[Bel Marduk]

Right around the time when they release Vision Pro with M2… that won’t be great for marketing unfortunately

I think they will end up releasing that with M3 as well. Its a very important product release for Apple, it wouldn't make sense for them to release that with old chips.

 

[jdb8167]

I doubt it, sales are hurting because of the vast sales during covid. The bulk of the target market for the Airs don’t buy because it’s got M3, they buy it because it’s a MacBook Air and Apple’s latest one at that.

Them rushing an M3 version out of the door when they likely have a huge surplus of M2 chips makes zero sense.

Of course the majority of sales go to customers who are unaware of the internal details but there is going to be a significant drop-off of sales to those customers who are more savvy. I suspect the number of potential customers who see things like the MR “Don’t Buy” in the buyer’s guide section to be reasonably large. Even a 10% drop in sales will hurt pretty badly when it is a best-selling product.

Do you have a source for the statement that Apple has a surplus of M2s? That would be unlike Apple who do very refined just-in-time manufacturing. Chips do have a several month lead-time but as the M2 is nearly 500 days old, Apple should have a pretty good idea of how many are needed.

 

[James Godfrey]

Of course the majority of sales go to customers who are unaware of the internal details but there is going to be a significant drop-off of sales to those customers who are more savvy. I suspect the number of potential customers who see things like the MR “Don’t Buy” in the buyer’s guide section to be reasonably large. Even a 10% drop in sales will hurt pretty badly when it is a best-selling product.

Do you have a source for the statement that Apple has a surplus of M2s? That would be unlike Apple who do very refined just-in-time manufacturing. Chips do have a several month lead-time but as the M2 is nearly 500 days old, Apple should have a pretty good idea of how many are needed.

Well considering the iPad Air is about to refresh with M2 plus Vision Pro having M2, alongside still selling M2 Macs I think it’s a safe bet they have quite a large amount still lying around