When to Expect New M4 MacBook Air, Mac Studio, and Mac Pro Models

[tenthousandthings]

There have been definite rumors that the Spring 2025 MacBook Pros Airs are going to be using the M5. Read this thread: https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/found-m4-and-m5-mac-identifiers.2432863/

Fixed typo [?]. It's more than a rumor, it's hard evidence. What it means with regard to the launch timeline is debatable, but @Jamie I was right about the M4 launching in the iPad Pro using similar evidence, so the probability of this being correct is very high.

There will be drama when the M4 MacBook Air doesn't launch in March, but by then Gurman will have confirmed this.

 

[jdb8167]

Fixed typo [?]. It's more than a rumor, it's hard evidence. What it means with regard to the launch timeline is debatable, but @Jamie I was right about the M4 launching in the iPad Pro using similar evidence, so the probability of this being correct is very high.

There will be drama when the M4 MacBook Air doesn't launch in March, but by then Gurman will have confirmed this.

My typo was MacBook Air not Pro.

 

[DavidSchaub]

Fixed typo [?]. It's more than a rumor, it's hard evidence. What it means with regard to the launch timeline is debatable, but @Jamie I was right about the M4 launching in the iPad Pro using similar evidence, so the probability of this being correct is very high.

There will be drama when the M4 MacBook Air doesn't launch in March, but by then Gurman will have confirmed this.

Yeah, I grant that the M5 MBA in June rumour is plausible, and an M4 -> M5 1.1 year cadence is possible.

It certainly fits with my expectation that Apple doesn't need to ship all Mac lines with all chip generations.

I think the M3 to M4 transition will be shown to be an outlier in how quick it was (due to Apple wanting to get off the more expensive 3nm process); but how much of an outlier is still unclear.


Some things feel a touch off about it still:

- WWDC is really the entirely wrong venue for releasing a new MBA (Apple could do it, but it is odd), and they could announce soon after/before WWDC.

- Maybe this M5 MBA is just late 2025, or early 2026 and is being held off until longer.

- The M4 Ultra (and maybe the Quadra?) are really better WWDC fodder, but I'll be really surprised if the M5 Max/Ultra is ready for WWDC, given that that is when the M4 Max/Ultra are currently rumoured. Releasing a new Pro M4 system while announcing an M5 system would confuse the marketing a bit.

- I just don't see why Apple would feel any need to rush matters. Except for high end workstations and gaming GPU grunt, Apple's product lines are doing fine for performance, and I doubt the SoC number is really pushing sales that much.

Hey, maybe Apple is planning on doing what I want: releasing an A* class SoC Mac laptop and desktop to hit lower price points?

 

[Chuckeee]

- The M4 Ultra (and maybe the Quadra?) are really better WWDC fodder, but I'll be really surprised if the M5 Max/Ultra is ready for WWDC, given that that is when the M4 Max/Ultra are currently rumoured. Releasing a new Pro M4 system while announcing an M5 system would confuse the marketing a bit.

- I just don't see why Apple would feel any need to rush matters. Except for high end workstations and gaming GPU grunt, Apple's product lines are doing fine for performance, and I doubt the SoC number is really pushing sales that much.

There is also the potential that the differentiation between M* generations can become a bit blurred. In particular with respect to high-performance chips (ultra and/or hydra). Especially if these chips have unique designs, Is it M4? M5? or
M4½? Msuperduperplus? And this could be exasperated for products (e.g. MacPro) that have non-annual updates. Becoming more of a marketing/PR sideshow. Historically, the Apple M/A chip generation has been about the actual production line used to Manufacture the chip, but it doesn’t have to be (e.g. Intel)

 

[tenthousandthings]

Yeah, I grant that the M5 MBA in June rumour is plausible, and an M4 -> M5 1.1 year cadence is possible.

It certainly fits with my expectation that Apple doesn't need to ship all Mac lines with all chip generations.

I think the M3 to M4 transition will be shown to be an outlier in how quick it was (due to Apple wanting to get off the more expensive 3nm process); but how much of an outlier is still unclear.


Some things feel a touch off about it still:

- WWDC is really the entirely wrong venue for releasing a new MBA (Apple could do it, but it is odd), and they could announce soon after/before WWDC.

- Maybe this M5 MBA is just late 2025, or early 2026 and is being held off until longer.

- The M4 Ultra (and maybe the Quadra?) are really better WWDC fodder, but I'll be really surprised if the M5 Max/Ultra is ready for WWDC, given that that is when the M4 Max/Ultra are currently rumoured. Releasing a new Pro M4 system while announcing an M5 system would confuse the marketing a bit.

- I just don't see why Apple would feel any need to rush matters. Except for high end workstations and gaming GPU grunt, Apple's product lines are doing fine for performance, and I doubt the SoC number is really pushing sales that much.

Hey, maybe Apple is planning on doing what I want: releasing an A* class SoC Mac laptop and desktop to hit lower price points?

M2 launched at WWDC 2022 in the MacBook Air. Of course, that was a new design. Also, M1 Ultra launched in March that year. So there is precedent for both things. It wouldn’t surprise me if both launch before WWDC: M4 Ultra in March, M5 MacBook Air in May (like M4 iPad Pro).

M2 Ultra launched at WWDC 2023, so there’s that. It’s anybody’s guess, but so far there are zero signs that Apple is willing to launch the Ultra after the next generation debuts.

 

[darngooddesign]

It has an unpatchable flaw.

So does the M1 but no one would claim that was a flop.

 

[Ethosik]

I own a Studio with Ultra but would NEVER buy another knowing M-next MAX is only a few months away and likely to overtake it in key ways. I'd rather wait the few months to get a more powerful, "latest & greatest" and spend a lot less money (so a lot less profit for Apple) too. However, flip this part of the apparent "schedule," and then anyone paying wayyyyyyyyyyyy up for Ultra or rumored Extreme would get at least a year of "king of the Mac power hill" perception before M-next offerings overtake them.

I have 4 different Mac Studio setups. I will not buy another one until they fix the M-Next MAX outperforming it in certain areas.

 

[DavidSchaub]

I have 4 different Mac Studio setups. I will not buy another one until they fix the M-Next MAX outperforming it in certain areas.

I'm quite sure Apple's perfectly OK with that.

Just buy M* Max instead.

 

[Ethosik]

A bazillion dollar company cannot change the laws of physics or force something to be ready before it’s ready…this isn’t an episode of Star Trek where Scotty or Geordi comes up with a last minute fix for a warp core breach. Try to live in the real world.

Macs don't sell nearly enough to be an issue. Intel releases a new generation roughly every single year like clockwork. Many more Intel processors are sold than Macs are purchased.

 

[Ethosik]

I'm quite sure Apple's perfectly OK with that.

Just buy M* Max instead.

Nope, if Apple doesn't care about the desktop I will just move back to Intel/AMD. Sorry, not getting a laptop, they are not good for intense workloads. Doesn't matter how good Apple made theirs, still can't compete with a proper desktop system. This will be the 2013 Trash can mac pro all over again. Then we will hear 7 years later how Apple is "sorry" for letting the Studio and Pro get horrible and "promise" to do better.

 

[Ethosik]

Apple have a huge problem which is not easy to solve. The market is pushing them every year to produce better chips in the whole range, phones and macs.

The simpler chips are developed first and so are ready to be in products like the air and low end Mac books.
then it takes another 12 months to get the higher end Mx chips in the higher end hardware.

The new generation chips at the low end are better than some of the medium end chips of the old generation. So they are canibalising the higher end machines. in some cases for over a year. Mac studio?

They are trying to move all processors to a yearly release.

They should wait until all the chips are fully developed and release the machines high to low.

They would then sell more high end machines as people may buy the more expensive machines as they can't wait for the next Air or Mac Book, Mini.

All this is tempered by the market shares of the machines. Meaning currently Apple makes its money from Airs and Mac Books / MB Pros.

Apple needs to move to release to Mac Pro and Studio FIRST. People like to compare "BUT BUT BUT Intel releases Laptop chips first!!!" Yes.......but Intel's X+1 Gen best Laptop CPU will NOT beat Intel's X Gen best Desktop CPU. This isn't the case for Macs for the most part. When I need more power, I use my M3 Max which is ridiculous when I have two M2 Ultras.

 

[Ethosik]

According to many reports and some digging, this is because they offer the smallest profit to Apple
MacBook Pro and MBA are the ones that sell like hot cakes

Which is why I might trade getting the Mac Studio for the MacBook Pro M4 instead
Though I do want that M4 Ultra Chip to take for a drive

Maybe if they treated their desktop line better it would sell more? It certainly is overpriced, especially the Mac Pro being the same exact specs as the Mac Studio yet being $3,000 more. No case, motherboard, PSU is worth $3,000 premium, sorry. They also need to give it more attention. I came BACK to Macs from Windows when the Studio came out. If they don't step it up more, I will go back to Windows and I absolutely HATE Windows.....but it has the hardware and app support I need.

 

[DavidSchaub]

Nope, if Apple doesn't care about the desktop I will just move back to Intel/AMD. Sorry, not getting a laptop, they are not good for intense workloads. Doesn't matter how good Apple made theirs, still can't compete with a proper desktop system. This will be the 2013 Trash can mac pro all over again. Then we will hear 7 years later how Apple is "sorry" for letting the Studio and Pro get horrible and "promise" to do better.

Oh, Apple is 100% fine with you going back it Intel/AMD too.

Apple doesn't make "proper desktop systems" any more, and I doubt they ever will again.

Apple's fine with a smaller market that will buy their expensive hardware.

All other users should just buy Windows/Linux boxes.

 

[Ethosik]

Oh, Apple is 100% fine with you going back it Intel/AMD too.

Apple doesn't make "proper desktop systems" any more, and I doubt they ever will again.

Apple's fine with a smaller market that will buy their expensive hardware.

All other users should just buy Windows/Linux boxes.

M1 and M2 the Mac Studio was a proper desktop system, but where is the M3? Being constantly outclasses by a laptop is not good. They need to release for the Studio first.

You know if you get what you want macOS marketshare will decrease. More pros that leave means less people writing apps to support macOS. If you want GROWTH, you need to attract pros not just grandmas.

What Grandma will care about having an M4 vs an M1? They just want to get on "the facebooks".

 

[DavidSchaub]

M1 and M2 the Mac Studio was a proper desktop system, but where is the M3? Being constantly outclasses by a laptop is not good. They need to release for the Studio first.

I fail to see why release the Ultra chip first makes any functional difference over the life of the machine.

You know if you get what you want macOS marketshare will decrease. More pros that leave means less people writing apps to support macOS. If you want GROWTH, you need to attract pros not just grandmas.

What? I don't want it. I'm just sure Apple is fine with a decrease in macOS pro marketshare. Personally, I'm all fine with Apple losing margins and profits to increase the Mac marketshare... I'm just confident that Apple doesn't care what I or you want.

What Grandma will care about having an M4 vs an M1? They just want to get on "the facebooks"

I'm sure there are some Grandmas out there doing great work with high-end computers.

 

[Ethosik]

I fail to see why release the Ultra chip first makes any functional difference over the life of the machine.

Because currently the Mac Studio is a HORRIBLE purchase. Get the M3 Max instead. It does a lot of things better than the studio. So yes, that affects the life of the machine. And the Mac Pro is even worse when you can get a laptop for just the price difference alone between the studio and the pro.

 

[DavidSchaub]

Because currently the Mac Studio is a HORRIBLE purchase. Get the M3 Max instead. It does a lot of things better than the studio. So yes, that affects the life of the machine. And the Mac Pro is even worse when you can get a laptop for just the price difference alone between the studio and the pro.

Sure, I agree with most of that.

Though, I think the sweet spot for desktops is buying the M* Max Mac Studio from Apple's refurb store; but if one needs more than that, I would look elsewhere.

I'm sure a small number of people need Mac iGPU power or the parallelism offered by the Ultra, and the M+next Max still won't match that.

 

[Ethosik]

Sure, I agree with most of that.

Though, I think the sweet spot for desktops is buying the M* Max Mac Studio from Apple's refurb store; but if one needs more than that, I would look elsewhere.

I'm sure a small number of people need Mac iGPU power or the parallelism offered by the Ultra, and the M+next Max still won't match that.

Its still a horrible purchase, get the M3 Max instead.

Actually the iGPU of the M3 Max is why it is getting more use than my M2 Ultra systems. They really upped their game with the GPUs and ray-tracing that the M2 Ultra doesn't have. Working in Blender is so much nicer on my M3 Max than M2 Ultra.

 

[Chuckeee]

I’m confused.

First you state:

Sorry, not getting a laptop, they are not good for intense workloads. Doesn't matter how good Apple made theirs, still can't compete with a proper desktop system.

Then later you state:

Working in Blender is so much nicer on my M3 Max than M2 Ultra.

Exactly what M3 Max do you use that isn’t a laptop?

 

[chucker23n1]

Fixed typo [?]. It's more than a rumor, it's hard evidence.

It’s hard evidence that there are Macs with the 17 prefix.

That probably means they’ll have an M5, and the evidence being in macOS already probably means they’re not that far out, but there’s no evidence these are MacBook Airs, Mac Something Something’s, or ponies.

 

[chucker23n1]

I’m confused.

First you state:

Then later you state:


Exactly what M3 Max do you use that isn’t a laptop?

The Mac Ijustwannacomplain

 

[opeter]

And definitely, Apple will skip shipping chip generations in everything but the MBP. So if you're expecting yearly desktop updates, you will be disappointed.

Excellent thinking! I totally agree.

 

[tenthousandthings]

Its still a horrible purchase, get the M3 Max instead.

Actually the iGPU of the M3 Max is why it is getting more use than my M2 Ultra systems. They really upped their game with the GPUs and ray-tracing that the M2 Ultra doesn't have. Working in Blender is so much nicer on my M3 Max than M2 Ultra.

It is reasonable to ask Apple to build an M3 Max Mac Studio and sell it alongside the M2 Ultra Mac Studio/Pro.

It is not reasonable, however, to expect Apple to do that. Nonetheless, a reality-based case can be made for it. There is a strong argument. But it runs up against the costs involved. You are a case in point. There are not enough customers who wouldn’t also just buy a MacBook Pro to get the M3 Max, like you did (apparently, assuming you’re not a troll who likes to shout and can’t keep their story straight), even though you weren’t happy about it.

It is completely unrealistic to ask/expect Apple to launch the Ultra first. If you think that can happen, you’re going to always be disappointed.

M4 versus M3, in terms of the GPU, does not appear to be a remarkable step forward like M3 versus M2. So your M3 Max MacBook Pro will still work while you wait a few months for M4 Ultra. And maybe, just maybe (I can dream), Apple could see the light and launch the M4 Max Mac Studio alongside the MacBook Pro. After all, they will be building it, there’s no real reason to wait for the Ultra.

 

[tenthousandthings]

It’s hard evidence that there are Macs with the 17 prefix.

That probably means they’ll have an M5, and the evidence being in macOS already probably means they’re not that far out, but there’s no evidence these are MacBook Airs, Mac Something Something’s, or ponies.

I’ll disagree with your first “probably.” It is not accidental — Apple changed their approach to the identifiers to enable this. There are two M5 Macs that have been given identifiers in macOS Sequoia.

They may be M5 ponies, indeed I am very much in favor of M5 ponies, but we don’t know so that’s why I used the word “debatable” when commenting on what Mac17,1 and Mac17,2 might be.

I think we need to get used to this. It’s actually a really good thing, a step forward. If @Jamie I can find that list, so can any competent developer. It’s probably incomplete (where/what is/was Mac16,4?), but it is official information. It’s not a leak, or a mistake.

 

[chucker23n1]

I’ll disagree with your first “probably.” It is not accidental — Apple changed their approach to the identifiers to enable this.

We don't know this. We've merely inferred it from recent behavior, which has only lasted a few years.

There are two M5 Macs that have been given identifiers in macOS Sequoia.

They may be M5 ponies, indeed I am very much in favor of M5 ponies, but we don’t know so that’s why I used the word “debatable” when commenting on what Mac17,1 and Mac17,2 might be.

My point is that the post goes from the certain (the pre-release builds lists Mac17 models) to guesswork (those probably refer to MacBook Airs, and those are probably M5-based, given the "17" infix).

Is it likely that "17" refers to M5? Yes. Is it likely that the Air is far enough out that the M5 would be ready in time? Yes. But it absolutely is not "hard evidence".

It’s not a leak, or a mistake.

Them including it so early in a macOS build is probably a mistake, but ultimately, it doesn't give us that much more info than "there will be new Macs coming". That said, Apple would even deny that there will be new iPhones coming in September.