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I think it will be a while. Most that are selling are using third party such as Swappa & Ebay to get the most value Vs Apple.
 
I would second the above. Keep an eye on Amazon because the 2021 MBPs have had as much as $250 off brand new which would match or beat what Apple would likely sell refurbished. I don't see those deals at the moment but they are popping up regularly though usually just in one color.
 
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Been looking...

Also didn't want to create a new thread but someone is selling a 13-inch 2020 M1 MBP with 250GB/8GB ram in mint condition (battery life 100 per cent) for $960 US ($1,200 Canadian). New from Apple it's $1,360 US ($1,700 CDN).

Wondering if that's a good deal? The laptop has barely been used, tossing in case and charger too.

Or should I try for 2021?
 
Wait for Apple's BTS promo in June. You'll get it new and cheaper than new.
 
This (Tuesday 04/07) morning, there are now four PAGES of refurbished M1 MacBook Pro models / combos. Lots of variety.
 
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