When will a new base model Mac Pro hit 30,000 in Geekbench

Discussion in 'Mac Pro' started by EdDuPlessis, Dec 7, 2014.

  1. EdDuPlessis macrumors 6502

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    Nov 23, 2014
    #1
    Following on from some discussions with member Upgrader about how an upgraded 4/5,1 can hit the same score in Geekbench as the current top Mac Pro 6,1 for a fraction of the cost - how long do you think it will be before Apple releases a base model Mac Pro that can hit 30,000 points in Geekbench 3? The current base model does about 14,000.
     
  2. VirtualRain macrumors 603

    VirtualRain

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    Vancouver, BC
    #2
    Given CPUs average less than a 10% improvement with each update it would take at least 8 new iterations of Quad Core to double the current Geekbench result (using the Rule of 72) if they stick with a quad core. It might even take longer because clock-for-clock improvements have really decreased. Haswell at the same clocks as Ivy is not much faster at all (in some benchmarks it's worse).

    It they offer a Hex core in the entry level at some point it would cut that gap considerably, but then it still might take a several iterations for a Hex to hit 30K... And who knows how long it might be before we see 8-cores in the base model which is really what it's going to take to hit 30K. It could be a few years or a lot longer depending on whether Apple decides to lower the entry level price point by using a cheap quad/hex or differentiate the Mac Pro based on cores and start it at 8 cores at some point.
     
  3. EdDuPlessis thread starter macrumors 6502

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    Nov 23, 2014
    #3
    It's clear the towers have a lot of life left in them and could still be going strong in five years if they match the current top 6,1.

    This is my somewhat quick sketch prediction.

    7,1 will have a 6 core entry level CPU with custom Pirate Islands GPUs. This will probably be out in Spring- Summer '15.

    8, 1 will move to 8 core entry level at the end of 2016. That is when the entry level system will match the best CPU performance of the 5,1.

    It's going to be interesting to see how Apple will react to Nvidia's new connector for Pascal GPU architecture. If they adopt it they will have to redesign the trash can again because they will have to move the SSD from that piggy back position it currently occupies on the back of the graphics card, unless Apple finds a way to stick a PCIE port on the back of a Pascal.
     
  4. VirtualRain macrumors 603

    VirtualRain

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    #4
    This is unlikely since the cost of the v3 Quad and Hex core CPUs hasn't changed. You're suggesting that Apple will either take a hit on margin or raise the price of the entry level. Neither is likely in my opinion. Hence (assuming Apple does a refresh to Haswell for the nMP) the 7,1 will likely start with a Quad core at the entry level.

    An interesting fact is that although the top CPU's have gone from 6 to 12 and now 18 cores, the entry level over the last 6 years has been a quad core.

    This is the iteration (Broadwell) that we might see a Hex core in the entry level. I can't see an 8-core becoming the entry level CPU for some time.

    First off, we don't know if Apple cares at all about Nvidia. So far they seem perfectly happy using AMD. However, whether Apple uses Nvidia or AMD GPUS they are designing their own custom cards so it's pretty easy for them to add an SSD connector to either. And if you're referring to NVLINK, then Apple will either jump in with both feet on that if they adopt Nvidia, or more likely, it will be one more reason Apple sticks with AMD.
     
  5. Gav Mack macrumors 68020

    Gav Mack

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    #5
    Dropping a CPU socket has certainly kept the 4-5,1's in the game but maybe Apple may have a bigger can in the works with a pentagonal core instead of triple with 2 cpu 2 gpu and an I/O card as that is got to be how they would upscale that clever design the can has.

    And as far as interconnects goes, 3m can do what any client wants with flexible cabling.

    Though in reality looking at intels server chip line and knowing Apple they will be selling a 4 core xeon or maybe a low clock 6 for a while yet and charge the earth for bigger ones.
     
  6. h9826790 macrumors 604

    h9826790

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    Hong Kong
    #6
    A nMP Plus :D
     
  7. Gav Mack macrumors 68020

    Gav Mack

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    #7
    A nMP two by two :). A matching case to put all the thunderbolt spaghetti plus sleds and slots would be even better :D
     
  8. goMac macrumors 603

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    Apr 15, 2004
    #8
    Ehhhhh. As I've said in other threads, it's not the CPUs that will be the end of those machines. It's the power situation for GPUs, along with the SATA2 bottlenecks on the machine, and the lack of Thunderbolt.

    The CPUs on the towers Mac Pros were always super overkill for a lot of uses, it's everything else the CPU is attached to that will drag the tower Mac pros down.

    I'd guess that in 3 to 4 years the Mac Pro will have an 8 core CPU at the low end, which will at the very least achieve that 30k Geekbench score being asked about. But on the other hand, if Thunderbolt 3 is fast, and external GPUs become a more standard thing, I could also see the Mac Pro being killed off in favor of the Macbook Pro or Mac Mini. The GPU performance is one of the few things keeping the Mac Pro going. The CPU performance is nice, but not what a lot of people are buying the Mac Pro for.
     
  9. EdDuPlessis thread starter macrumors 6502

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    Nov 23, 2014
    #9
    I agree I am being generous to Apple...for once. If they do make the six core entry level next year that's cool, if not I pity the sods who pay up to three grand for quad core notebook level performance. (And how soon until MacBook Pro moves to six core?)

    I would like to them offer more than 12 cores ASAP.

    The 4-5,1 will be good until 2020 because PCIE expansion will bring faster internal storage options and USB 3.1. Even the Bluetooth module is upgradable. The 6,1 won't even have such breadth of options internally.

    On the GPU end PCIE graphics cards for 5,1 will be around for a few years even if NVLINK takes off in 2016. There is a large consumer base for buying upgrade cards so low power Pascals will mix with newer generation Maxwells.

    I have no idea where AMD is going. They have not shown a roadmap comparable to a Nvidia's.
     
  10. goMac macrumors 603

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    Apr 15, 2004
    #10
    The next revision will likely go more than 12 cores. I think there is a likely 16 core option, but I heard there is an 18 core variation of that Xeon was well? But I think that it's less likely Apple would use that version.

    Four core might persist next year. I'd like to see them offer a four core for cheaper and move the existing 4 core price point to 6.
     

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