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When will FaceBook stop climbing and start falling?

My guess is when something new and better comes. Social media is here to stay, people won't just suddenly quit contacting each other through the Internet. FaceBook is a great concept IMO, not easy to beat. Sure it starts to be bloated by all that crap as well but the main idea behind it and its popularity makes it great. So easy to contact people that you normally couldn't
 
If Facebook can continue to evolve it will last for at least 5 more years. If something better comes along and knocks it off of it's perch the way Myspace died then it will go away in 2 years. At the moment there is no competition so Facebook will be around.

The only thing that can hurt Facebook is itself, if privacy becomes a concern and turn people away that will hurt it, other than that they really are untouchable at the moment.
 
^^^

The early days of search engines may be like social networking sites now. There were a few major ones but then Google came along and got it "right" sort of and went public. Currently waiting on the facebook to go public-- however:

The Facebook Fiasco Is A PR Disaster For Goldman Sachs, And Now It May Lose Out On An IPO
It's still not clear exactly what led up to Goldman Sachs blocking its US customers from investing in Facebook, but it's obviously a huge embarrassment for the bank.

To back up a few steps, it's been clear lately that Goldman is putting renewed emphasis on the banking side of the businesses, hoping to downplay the more controversial (and much more profitable) trading side of the house.

Doing the Facebook deal (and likely having the lead on a possible Facebook IPO) was part of that push. That Lloyd Blankfein did a personal visit to Groupon for their likely IPO is another sign.

The Facebook deal itself was already going to be controversial, because at first blush it came off like Goldman finding a way to skirt securities regulations (though later it was made clear that regardless of whether it did a real IPO, Facebook would report financials).

As for the current mess, it's still a little unclear how it happened.

According to DealBook, at issue is the timing of the original news leak (on January 2) and the SEC's concern that it looked like advertising a private deal. That's a no-no.

On CNBC this morning, DealBook's editor Andrew Ross Sorkin said the relationship between Goldman and Facebook is "frayed," and that it's not clear whether Goldman Sachs will still lead a Facebook IPO (if ever there is one).

Clearly part of the issue is that original leak, though obviously Sorkin didn't say whether it came from the Goldman or Facebook side.

It doesn't really matter: Goldman wanted to peacock a bit, and do an audacious deal with a high-profile company, and now that's coming unglued through some combination of bungling (on some side of the deal) and regulatory hostility, which is a major vulnerability for Goldman.

If you're a tech company like Groupon (or anyone else looking to IPO), if nothing else you might wonder about the wisdom of working with a company that has regulators breathing so heavily down its neck.
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The bad press is there, but I don't think they've peaked yet.
 
I think it depends on whether they stick to what they're good at (connecting me with my friends) or try too hard to push into other directions. For example, they seem to be trying to take over my email (facebook email addresses), and everyone knows about their issues with privacy and selling your data to advertisers -- both things that I don't really need and don't really want.

If they keep it simple, configurable, and it remains a site where I can keep in touch with my friends, I can see it being successful indefinitely -- just like Gmail, Hotmail, Skype, YouTube are likely going to be around for a long time to come.

If they start taking advantage of their position and I get inundated with spam, ads, game invitations, "virus" invitations, or get other things shoved down my throat that I don't want, or if they start (continue?) to do questionable things with the data they are collecting, then they may invite a backlash that results in people leaving the service. For example, I see they've started pushing out @facebook.com email addresses. Not interested, don't want it. As long as I can say "no, thank you" then we're good. If they start shoving that in my face, however...
 
It's become more annoying than fun for me at the moment. The new layout is a total mess and my news feed is filled full of people joining them witty phrased groups that just steal your personal information.

At the moment, it's a cesspit.
 
notjustjay said:
I think it depends on whether they stick to what they're good at (connecting me with my friends) or try too hard to push into other directions. For example, they seem to be trying to take over my email (facebook email addresses), and everyone knows about their issues with privacy and selling your data to advertisers -- both things that I don't really need and don't really want.

If they keep it simple, configurable, and it remains a site where I can keep in touch with my friends, I can see it being successful indefinitely -- just like Gmail, Hotmail, Skype, YouTube are likely going to be around for a long time to come.

If they start taking advantage of their position and I get inundated with spam, ads, game invitations, "virus" invitations, or get other things shoved down my throat that I don't want, or if they start (continue?) to do questionable things with the data they are collecting, then they may invite a backlash that results in people leaving the service. For example, I see they've started pushing out @facebook.com email addresses. Not interested, don't want it. As long as I can say "no, thank you" then we're good. If they start shoving that in my face, however...
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In the future they might force you to make a @facebook.com email address to be able to use FaceBook. That'd make a backlash.
 
notjustjay said:
I think it depends on whether they stick to what they're good at (connecting me with my friends) or try too hard to push into other directions. ...

If they keep it simple, configurable, and it remains a site where I can keep in touch with my friends, I can see it being successful indefinitely -- just like Gmail, Hotmail, Skype, YouTube are likely going to be around for a long time to come.

If they start taking advantage of their position and I get inundated with spam, ads, game invitations, "virus" invitations, or get other things shoved down my throat that I don't want, or if they start (continue?) to do questionable things with the data they are collecting, then they may invite a backlash that results in people leaving the service...
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Could not agree more with this post.

mrsir2009 said:
In the future they might force you to make a @facebook.com email address to be able to use FaceBook. That'd make a backlash.
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If they do that, I will cancel my account immediately.
 
Aside of some new, hot social media competitor, I can't see FB falling in the near future. What would really hurt them is a breach of their security. It will happen eventually and youngens will realize how important their privacy is. Too bad they'll never get it back.
 
I believe FB will decline within 5 years ... something will replace it that does not rely on selling people's information. Something that does not insisting on ownership of everything posted.

IMO Facebook is nothing more than a fad and is nearing a time when more people will be leaving than joining ... they also have grown with no actual business plan ... adopting a spam style, sell your personal info way of revenue stream ... :cool:
 
Honestly I dont see it ever dying the way myspace did, just like I dont see youtube ever dying. However I only use the iphone app, I havent used the web based facebook since I created my account. Its too bloated and complicated for me. The iphone version is minimalistic and awesome.
 
I don't see Facebook falling in the near future at all. It's hard for that to happen when they're at 600 million members and in the billion dollar revenue range. How many internet companies have made it that far? There is still plenty of room for growth as we'll likely see membership reach 1 billion in the next few years.

Facebook has established itself as the standard for social networking, just as Google had established itself as the standard for search. Yes, they are beatable, it's just not very easy to do when they're at that size.
 
The thing about FB is, it feeds on itself. The more people it gets, the more people want to join because all their friends are on it. So it will be hard for it to die too hard unless they REALLY screw things up.

IMO, they have already screwed up pretty badly, and I left months ago. My take is that this is a company that fundamentally does not get it when it comes to privacy. They honestly believe we should all be Ok with having all of our info online, and they really don't get why people don't want that. Oh sure, they make concessions to privacy because people complain, but they don't fundamentally "get" the problem.

Also, I think they have no intention of limiting themselves to their core concept. I think they want to be Google in that they want to be your central hub for everything you do on the internet. They get their in a different way, but both companies basically want to be your one stop shop, the place from which you are linked to everything else you do.

I liked the original facebook, where it was just a way to connect with friends and people you otherwise wouldn't find again. But that's not where the money is, so here we are.
 
QCassidy352 said:
The thing about FB is, it feeds on itself. The more people it gets, the more people want to join because all their friends are on it. So it will be hard for it to die too hard unless they REALLY screw things up.

IMO, they have already screwed up pretty badly, and I left months ago. My take is that this is a company that fundamentally does not get it when it comes to privacy. They honestly believe we should all be Ok with having all of our info online, and they really don't get why people don't want that. Oh sure, they make concessions to privacy because people complain, but they don't fundamentally "get" the problem.

Also, I think they have no intention of limiting themselves to their core concept. I think they want to be Google in that they want to be your central hub for everything you do on the internet. They get their in a different way, but both companies basically want to be your one stop shop, the place from which you are linked to everything else you do.

I liked the original facebook, where it was just a way to connect with friends and people you otherwise wouldn't find again. But that's not where the money is, so here we are.
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Yes, but as FaceBook can feed itself it can also eat itself. For example, you mentioned you left: What if you and several other of your friends left at the same time, someone on FB might leave because all their best friends have left. Then that person might start talking about FB's bad sides to their friends, so several more people leave. From there the amount of people who could leave is infinite. ;)
 
I really liked Facebook when it was only accessible from an .edu address. As soon as my parents/aunts/uncles/and other family members were able to join it, it became more of a p.i.t.a. I went from 800 friends to 200 and ready to cancel everything that is Facebook.
 
wvuwhat said:
I really liked Facebook when it was only accessible from an .edu address. As soon as my parents/aunts/uncles/and other family members were able to join it, it became more of a p.i.t.a. I went from 800 friends to 200 and ready to cancel everything that is Facebook.
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and...I've now canceled it. I'm just "done" with everything that is Facebook.
 
wvuwhat said:
I really liked Facebook when it was only accessible from an .edu address. As soon as my parents/aunts/uncles/and other family members were able to join it, it became more of a p.i.t.a. I went from 800 friends to 200 and ready to cancel everything that is Facebook.
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Yeah who wants to interact with their immediate family on the internet -_- Its pretty stupid and pointless.
 
The fact is FB has really nothing to keep attracting new people ... the only way they can make money is by selling people's information and everyone will eventually grow tired of that.

IMO they will not reach 1 billion users ... pretty much everyone who wants to be on FB is on there already. As for me ... I have never joined FB even though my parents tried to get me to join. (now they both wish they had not joined)

Almost everyone I know hates FB and says they do not go on it anymore ... like I said above ... FB is a passing fad that is fast wearing out it's appeal.

5 years from now ... a common statement will be ... I can't believe I was on Facebook and wasted so much time with it.
 
Apple OC said:
The fact is FB has really nothing to keep attracting new people ... the only way they can make money is by selling people's information and everyone will eventually grow tired of that.

IMO they will not reach 1 billion users ... pretty much everyone who wants to be on FB is on there already. As for me ... I have never joined FB even though my parents tried to get me to join. (now they both wish they had not joined)

Almost everyone I know hates FB and says they do not go on it anymore ... like I said above ... FB is a passing fad that is fast wearing out it's appeal.

5 years from now ... a common statement will be ... I can't believe I was on Facebook and wasted so much time with it.
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Mmm, many people at my school (including myself) have stopped using Facebook regularly. I don't use it at all now. Even the most hardcore Facebook nerds are easing up on their usage - There simply isn't enough to do anymore. Everyone that I know that has been playing FB games like farmville have got sick of it and quit...

Their only hope is to reach new people before the current population on Facebook get board of it and move on.
 
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