When will the iPhone era die out?

Anthony T

macrumors 6502a
Original poster
Jul 10, 2008
990
85
It seems like there's different "eras" of cellular/mobile phones every few years or so...back in the day when everyone had beepers/pagers, then the "flip-phone" era, the Nextel era when everyone wanted those walkie-talkie phones, the BlackBerry era, and now it seems like the iPhone is the main phone that the majority of people seem to have.

How much longer do you expect Apple/the iPhone to dominate? How much longer until a new type of phone becomes the hot commodity?
 

DBZmusicboy01

macrumors 6502a
Sep 30, 2011
939
394
Until Apple doesn't exist anymore...They will never stop making iPhones. There would be iOS 100 but we wouldn't be alive for that time.
 
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SHirsch999

macrumors 6502a
Apr 19, 2011
652
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The phone era in general (not just iPhones) will only die off when a better form of tech is created for communication. That's why beepers, land lines, and flip phones are going the way of the dinosaur. More than likely smartphones will gradually morph into something else, not die off. Kinda like evolution.
 
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SMIDG3T

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Apr 29, 2012
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England
It seems like there's different "eras" of cellular/mobile phones every few years or so...back in the day when everyone had beepers/pagers, then the "flip-phone" era, the Nextel era when everyone wanted those walkie-talkie phones, the BlackBerry era, and now it seems like the iPhone is the main phone that the majority of people seem to have.

How much longer do you expect Apple/the iPhone to dominate? How much longer until a new type of phone becomes the hot commodity?
Apple are in this for the long haul, there aren't going anywhere.

Get used to them!
 
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iolinux333

macrumors 68000
Feb 9, 2014
1,798
73
Three possibilities:

1. If Apple continues to be 4 years behind the feature set of other phones, iPhone is gone within 4 years.

2. Apple stops with the BS and copies all the good stuff out of Android, Blackberry and WP just like WP and Android and Blackberry copied all the good stuff out of IPhone, Windows Mobile and Symbian, then everyone is around forever.

3. Open Source Phone happens: then everyone gets everything they want and we all just get on with life, no one cares about Apple, Microsoft, or anyone and they're vaguely remembered for about 10 years. New Generations know as much about those old dead companies as they do about Eastern Standard Oil.
 
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Jimmy James

macrumors 601
Oct 26, 2008
4,959
3,350
Magicland
OP, I think you're referring to smartphones in general. I think they will be here for a long time, at least until some unforeseeable technology replaces them. Modern smartphones are the first real mobile convergence device.
 
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aneftp

macrumors 601
Jul 28, 2007
4,282
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Cell phone tech changes so fast.

Just remember the "it" phone from 2004-2007 was the Motorola Razr and it's variations.

I think the iPhone "era" was between 2008-2011, at least in the USA. Because 2007 was just an introduction at full price.

Starting in 2008 the iPhone really changed the landscape of cellular/smartphone function. iPhone really had no true competitor until Samsung started introducing the Galaxy S model in summer 2010.

So beginning with the Galaxy S2 in 2011, the iPhone wasn't just the "it" phone anymore. Now there are more competitors with just as compelling phones.

Apple had a great run. It's still a fantastic phone/OS/app store integration.

Android has fully caught up to iOS and even surpass it in some aspects (of course, iOS also has advantages over Android as well). I'm not going to get into a huge debate about it since it's been discussed numerous times. I also fine Windows phone OS 8.1 to be a very compelling competitor as well.

I think Windows Phone OS 8.1 is just as "fluid" as iOS. I have used every old and modern phone operating system so have full knowledge as all of them.
 
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Appl3FTW

macrumors 603
Nov 15, 2012
5,392
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When a new technology emerge that doesn't require a cellphone... That's the only way iphone will die haha
 
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madsci954

macrumors 68030
Oct 14, 2011
2,670
507
Ohio
It seems like there's different "eras" of cellular/mobile phones every few years or so...back in the day when everyone had beepers/pagers, then the "flip-phone" era, the Nextel era when everyone wanted those walkie-talkie phones, the BlackBerry era, and now it seems like the iPhone is the main phone that the majority of people seem to have.

How much longer do you expect Apple/the iPhone to dominate? How much longer until a new type of phone becomes the hot commodity?
I agree the tech moves in eras. But I don't think it's just iPhones. It's more like smartphones as a whole. And I think it's gonna stay until there's a new tech. Crazy example, a wrist communicator that does everything a current smartphone does.
 
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CEmajr

macrumors 601
Dec 18, 2012
4,377
1,138
Charlotte, NC
Three possibilities:

1. If Apple continues to be 4 years behind the feature set of other phones, iPhone is gone within 4 years.

2. Apple stops with the BS and copies all the good stuff out of Android, Blackberry and WP just like WP and Android and Blackberry copied all the good stuff out of IPhone, Windows Mobile and Symbian, then everyone is around forever.

3. Open Source Phone happens: then everyone gets everything they want and we all just get on with life, no one cares about Apple, Microsoft, or anyone and they're vaguely remembered for about 10 years. New Generations know as much about those old dead companies as they do about Eastern Standard Oil.
4 years behind? In 2010 most of the other OS's were barely usable.
 
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cube

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May 10, 2004
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4,965
Nah, Glass will be a niche product. It will be used by some doctors, teachers, military and the like but it won't reach mass appeal.
Smartphones will be to glass like flipphones are to smartphones today.

They will be more practical, specially if you already wear prescriptions.

After that, it will be time for contacts. Probably even people who can't stand them will be able to buy a robot to take care of putting and removing them.
 
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OneMike

macrumors 603
Oct 19, 2005
5,651
1,582
It seems like there's different "eras" of cellular/mobile phones every few years or so...back in the day when everyone had beepers/pagers, then the "flip-phone" era, the Nextel era when everyone wanted those walkie-talkie phones, the BlackBerry era, and now it seems like the iPhone is the main phone that the majority of people seem to have.

How much longer do you expect Apple/the iPhone to dominate? How much longer until a new type of phone becomes the hot commodity?
I wouldn't necessarily say beepers/pages died. I think the technology more evolved to text/email, which was more affordable. Same with nextel and chirping. At the peak for Nextel, minutes were like what 50 per month or something for $45 or so with unlimited walkie-talkie. That was big. With unlimited talk plan and cheaper minutes plus other services that's not a big deal.

Long story short, when I think of nextel, treo (windows version), beepers, etc.. I shifted to the device to make use of a feature that wasn't available elsewhere. With the iPhone, at this point, the core features exist on other devices. I feel Apple has the best implementation at this time though. I think the implementation will be as big a factor as innovation for a while.
 
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solarguy17

macrumors 6502a
Sep 10, 2007
721
173
Three possibilities:

1. If Apple continues to be 4 years behind the feature set of other phones, iPhone is gone within 4.
4 years behind? Please tell me, who else is using 64bit processors? Who else has a phone capable of running console quality games (Metal)? Who else's phone has the ability to link up with a computer and go back and forth as seamlessly as Continuity will be?

Remember many of the features that people are saying that Apple copied from Android aren't android features but instead Samsung, HTC, ect. features. Also even amongst the actual android features, not many people get them because of the stupid update schedule (or lack of) that Google uses.
 
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Dolorian

macrumors 65816
Apr 25, 2007
1,086
0
Smartphones will be to glass like flipphones are to smartphones today.

They will be more practical, specially if you already wear prescriptions.
We'll have to wait and see, at this point smart watches (Android Wear) seem to have a better chance of being adopted by the masses. Glass has more hurdles to overcome than a smartwatch as far as regulations and social acceptance goes.
 
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cube

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May 10, 2004
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We'll have to wait and see, at this point smart watches (Android Wear) seem to have a better chance of being adopted by the masses. Glass has more hurdles to overcome than a smartwatch as far as regulations and social acceptance goes.
Smartwatches are gadgets, while glass is the future of screens.
 
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scaredpoet

macrumors 604
Apr 6, 2007
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Theres one major flaw in all these "prediction" type discussions: that there can be only one dominant "winner" in a category, and then everyone else just dies.

But the reality is different. Apple has been making Macs for 30 years now. It started out big, had some real problems a decade in, and then slowly became a prestige niche. And not once has it been a dominant platform with a majority marketshare.

Like the Mac, iPhones will ebb and flow. And at some point smartphones might not be the leading way for people to do their computing, social networking or online access... it might be something else. Apple might invent that new thing, or someone else might, and they'll come and perfect it later, just like they did with MP3 players and cell phones.
 
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