I think nixing sub 3GB of RAM makes sense. We've had three successive iOS releases with the same system requirements (the highest that's ever been prior to that is two, so we're sort of in new territory here).
The A8 in the mini 4 is the worst for wear on the iPadOS side of things. Back in 2019 when iOS 13's requirements drew a line in A8 so that 2GB of RAM and higher was the requirement (effectively nixing iPhone 6, 6 Plus, iPod touch sixth Generation, and then all A7 devices), I could tell that the experience on the mini's A8 would become crap. The A8X is a little better for its third core and boosted graphics, but only so much. Apple will, at the very least, nix support for these two.
The A9 was decent, and the only A9-based thing I can see retaining support is the first generation 12.9" iPad Pro for its still-formidable 4GB of RAM. The 9.7" iPad Pro and the fifth Generation iPad seem unlikely to make it for much longer. Sure the former has better graphics performance than the latter, but RAM tend to be a hard deal-breaker with these things. The first gen SE, and 6s/6s Plus are easily the best generation of iPhones bar none. But Apple is clearly not optimizing iOS for these guys anymore, so I won't be surprised to see them dropped. The iPhone 6s and 6s Plus hold the record of longest supported iPhone at 7 years.
Moving into A10, I do not see Apple dropping support for A10 100% across the board. A10X is still a beast. I'm unsure of tvOS's resource footprint, but I'd imagine that it's probably more okay with an A8 than an iPad mini is. I certainly can't imagine Apple would drop one generation of 4K Apple TV, but not the other. That just seems silly. I could picture the iPhone 7 and 7 Plus losing support. Though the 2GB vs. 3GB dividing line there seems weird. Then again, Apple always lists supported iPhones by model. So, they could easily include the iPhone 7 Plus and iPhone 8 Plus, but otherwise drop every 4.7" iPhone older than the second generation SE.
And mind you, that's if we're assuming older devices are being dropped based on RAM.
If we're basing it off of other architectural differences, dropping ANYTHING A8-based would make sense given the massive improvements to storage (switching from eMMC to PCIe/NVMe) or Augmented Reality support that came in A9/X. A10/X Fusion added BIG.little and asymmetric multi-core processing that exists in pretty much every smartphone and every Android phone out there.
However, where I think there is the biggest architectural difference, at least from the standpoint of things Apple cares a lot about, A11 Bionic is the first SoC that (a) is 100% 64-bit only (and quite custom relative to other ARM64 designs), (b) has Apple's own designed GPUs and not anything made by PowerVR, and (c) has the Neural Engine. If Apple made the A11 Bionic the minimum bar of entry for iOS (and A12 Bionic the minimum bar of entry for iPadOS, by extension, since A11 Bionic never found its way into an iPad), regardless of RAM, then Apple could be free to have iOS 16 truly unleash amazing performance and features at a fundamental system level that they might otherwise have issues building in. Apple already heavily stresses both their own GPU and the Neural Engine when it comes to development tools and SDKs, so this is not that huge of a stretch.
I'm not one to believe that Apple would drop support for seventh Generation iPads that were sold as recently as August of 2020. But, it's not like there haven't been iPads with similar support lifespans in the past; the first generation iPad couldn't run iOS 6 in 2012. But barring that and maybe the seventh Generation iPod touch, it wouldn't affect anything sold in the last three years.
And that's not to say that I think that Apple will make the A11 the minimum bar of entry. Just that they absolutely have incentive to and they totally could if they wanted to.
I'm otherwise in the camp that we'll see 3GB of RAM become the minimum. So iPhone 7 Plus, 8 Plus, X, and newer, with 7, 8, 6S, 6S, First Generation SE, and 7th Generation iPod touch being dropped and seventh Generation iPad and newer, fifth Generation iPad mini and newer, third Generation iPad Air and newer, the lone 10.5" iPad Pro, and all generations of both 12.9" and 11" iPad Pro. Going forward from that point, the A10 Fusion devices with 3GB of RAM (so, iPhone 7 Plus and Seventh Generation iPad) will become painful to keep using, while the 10.5" iPad Pro and second generation 12.9" iPad Pro might be okay. I do not believe that tvOS 16 will drop the first generation Apple TV 4K, but the HD model seems likely.
No way they will drop support for the iPhone 7, despite its 2 GB RAM. It wasn't discontinued until 2019.
No way they will drop support for the iPad 6th gen, despite its 2 GB RAM. It wasn't discontinued until 2019.
No way they will drop support for the iPad mini 4, despite its 2 GB RAM. It wasn't discontinued until 2019.
When Apple discontinued a product doesn't have consistent bearing on when it will lose support. 2012 MacBook Pros had longer support cycles than 2014 MacBook Pros by a full year. Similarly, Apple has discontinued support for the Fourth, Sixth, and Seventh iPod touches mere months before dropping support for those models. Apple is not required under law to keep these devices supported with the latest iOS updates. Especially since they have a history of patching critical security vulnerabilities in older iOS releases on devices that are otherwise capped.
Along with poor sales, it is possible the iPod Touch was discontinued right before WWDC if it is not going to be supported with future iOS versions.
I think that's the thesis of the bulk of this particular MacRumors article. And, for what it's worth, the logic checks out.
I think most people have iOS update burnout and couldn’t care less about iOS 16 or beyond. They just want their phone to work, be bug free, and stop nagging them all the time.
You're not wrong. However, Apple very clearly doesn't care and is fully content to keep pushing new iOS, iPadOS, and macOS releases upon us every fall.
I need to know which Macs macOS 13 will be dropping. Have there been any rumors what they're going to call it? I was thinking "Death Valley" would be appropriate considered the changeover to M(something) chips in the lineup, since they are killing off all the intel version Macs.
No rumors so far. But I'd say no more Haswell Macs (so no more 2014 Mac mini or Mid 2015 15" MacBook Pro), likely no more Broadwell Macs either (which was pretty much limited to the Early 2015 13" Pro, the 2015 21.5" iMac, and the Early 2015 Air), and it's a toss-up as to which, if any, Skylake (2015 if 27" iMac, 2016 if MacBook Pro) or Kaby Lake Macs lose support. I'd guess that the 2013 Mac Pro lives on. Apple could also make the T2 a minimum requirement, which is totally possible given how much of the OS and its features from Catalina onwards was preferring of the T2 chips. I'm skeptical they'll go this far, because that'd nix 21.5" iMacs that were sold up until mid last year. But, like my above theory about making A11 Bionic the minimum barrier of entry for iOS, Apple totally could do it and has every incentive to do it.
You forgot the iPad Pro 9.7” which has an A9X with 2GB of RAM and was released after the 12.9” with 4GB of RAM.
The RAM difference is huge there. I can totally see Apple continuing to support the first generation 12.9" iPad Pro, but otherwise dropping every other A9/X based device for not having 3GB or more RAM.
I would expect the iPhone 7 Plus to get iOS 16 and probably iOS 17 too.
If the line is drawn at 3GB of RAM and then we have three more years the same requirements for subsequent versions of iOS, then sure. But there's no guarantee that Apple won't change things up as they've often done.
I wonder what will happen with the 4th gen Apple TV? It's still being sold and as an appliance you'd expect it to have a long support lifecycle. The continued support of the 4th gen Apple TV with it's A8 and 2GB of RAM and the commonality between tvOS and iOS/iPadOS is likely part of the reason why other A8 devices with 2GB of RAM, namely the iPad Air 2 and iPad Mini 4, have hung around so long. If Apple continues to support the still selling 4th gen Apple TV in tvOS 16, they may be willing to continue putting in the incremental work needed to support the iPad Air 2 and iPad Mini 4 in iPadOS, which means no devices will be dropped.
tvOS and iPadOS have two completely different sets of common use cases. The Fourth Generation Apple TV (HD) and the iPad mini 4 both having an A8 with 2GB of RAM doesn't necessarily mean anything. Apple may deem the 2GB RAM variant of A8 fine for tvOS 16, but not for iPadOS 16. Considering how sluggish tvOS has been on the fourth generation Apple TV the past few years, it wouldn't surprise me to see it discontinued and support for it dropped. But, who knows? Apple doesn't jam as many new features into tvOS each year, so it may be that the A8 in the fourth generation Apple TV has much more life left in it than that same A8 has in the iPad mini 4.
No. A lot of A10 devices will continue to be supported in iOS 17, based on Apple's previous support practices.
Apple doesn't have an established trend here. iOS 15 is the third consecutive release with the same system requirements. This has never occurred before in the history of iOS. The iPhone 6s and 6s Plus (and A9/X SoCs by extension) will have made it seven years since release to be running the latest releases of iOS and iPadOS. No iPhone or iPad (or underlying SoC, for that matter) has ever been supported for THIS long. Nor does Apple ever state anywhere how long they guarantee a given iOS/iPadOS device will receive updates for. Nor have they ever. So, basing your predictions on previous Apple support practices doesn't really hold too much predictive weight.
6S series had a solid F'in run. Seven years is better than some computers and gaming consoles lol. I still maintain its the best phone Apple made, in terms of longevity. Of course, that can be dethroned here as newer models age. If seven years becomes the norm, I am certainly not complaining.
10000%. The 6s iPhones were the best, had the longest support, had the best features, were rock solid reliable and were easily the best smartphones that ever existed, let alone the best iPhones that ever existed.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the iPhone 6s get iOS 16 too.
Typically, it's not just how old the device is. It's also very dependent on when it became unavailable for sale new. (iPod touch doesn't count.)
Again, I have no idea where you get this from. Apple does not have a static policy of supporting devices for certain periods following their discontinuation. By law, they have to provide replacement parts and/or replacement units for up to five years (or up to seven in the state of California and the nation of Turkey). But that has nothing to do with how long they will keep updating the operating system on it. The only way The iPhone 6s will get iOS 16 is if Apple is giving us yet a fourth year of the same system requirements. Otherwise, it's long in the tooth (from the standpoint of architectural advances in Apple's SoCs) and Apple will try to cut support from it whenever they can.
Considering the not so great performance of iPad mini 4 with iOS 15, I doubt that it will receive iOS16.
Pretty safe bet that it won't get it. Of all the iOS/iPadOS devices able to run iOS/iPadOS 13.0-current, that one was always going to have it the worst.
The concerning aspect is dropping the A10 in the ipod touch. Apple has done this in the past where they discontinued a model just ahead of WWDC that dropped support for that device (iPod 4 before iOS7 WWDC). They have also dropped two generations worth of devices in a single year too (e.g. iPad 2 and 3 were dropped together, iphone 6/plus and 5S were dropped together in 13)
iOS16 could be A11 and higher
If Apple does it by RAM, then we'll see lower-end A10 Fusion devices (iPhone 7, Seventh Generation iPod touch, Sixth Generation iPad) as well as all A9, and the rest of the higher-end A8 devices drop. But we'd also see the iPhone 8 drop too.
If Apple does it based on major architectural advances (again, dropping 32-bit ARM instructions, switching from PowerVR GPUs to their own in-house GPUs, and the neural engine), A11 Bionic and newer for iOS 16 would make a ton of sense.
Based on Big sur vs Monterey requirements - I would guess anything 2015 and earlier will be axed this go. MAYBE the Mac Pro from 2013 will see one last go tho
That totally depends. Lately, Apple has been far more aggressive about nixing Macs. 2012 Macs got a full 8 years of being able to run the latest release, and will have 10 years of being able to run an OS that's getting patched. 2013 and 2014 Macs have that number dropped to 7 (and, in some cases, 6). It's also the case that Monterey runs fairly worse on Haswell and Broadwell Macs than Big Sur did and that the fans (even on a Haswell or Broadwell MacBook Pro/Air that had a fresh coat of thermal paste applied recently) run substantially louder than on a Skylake or Kaby Lake MacBook Pro. It's also the case that Apple is building more and more features into the OS that either take advantage of or require at least a T2 chip, if not Apple Silicon outright. Apple may be moving to drop pre-T2 Intel Macs before too long. Then again, it may also be that we mostly get Skylake support, but don't get the 2015 iMac due to some Bluetooth adapter inside of it no longer having driver support from the vendor anymore.
A10 (well the A10X) in the Apple TV 4K will obviously get tvOS 16 and 17, so maybe the A10 has longer legs than we think. Although I find it hard to imagine they'll keep supporting the iPod touch now that it's officially discontinued.
A10X Fusion has 4GB of RAM and a bit more graphics heft. Standard A10 Fusion had either 2GB (if iPhone 7, Seventh Generation iPod touch, or Sixth Generation iPad) or 3GB of RAM (if iPhone 7 Plus or Seventh Generation iPad). The T2 chip is also A10 Fusion based, but bridgeOS and its needs are extremely small compared to tvOS and iOS/iPadOS. It's also the case that tvOS ultimately needs less to comfortably function than iOS or iPadOS. I'd say that if we're talking about raw power and/or RAM, Apple doesn't need to drop the first generation Apple TV 4K for having A10X Fusion. Given how sluggish tvOS has been on the fourth generation Apple TV (HD), I can't imagine that'll stay supported for too long. However, Apple does still sell that model, and it's possible that they may just lower the price on it to make it more affordable given how old its internals are and how its tvOS development team as probably given up on really optimizing for it.
There's overlap with tvOS and iOS/iPadOS, but not to the point where they each require the same out of the SoCs. The original HomePod still rocks an A8 and I doubt it'll get dropped from anything anytime soon. And even if Apple drops A10 Fusion, they're keeping the T2 supported for a decent while longer and that is A10 Fusion based.
My iPad Mini 4 is dog slow under iPadOS 15 and I can't imagine it handling 16 at all. Honestly wish I'd stopped updating it several versions ago. The thing felt quite fast and smooth when I first got it but now it's so laggy I kind of hate to even use it.
I really wish Apple could do a better job with newer OS versions on older hardware. The main reason I update is for security and compatibility, but if some new feature is bogging things down I could live without that feature.
I'm not an engineer, and maybe this is all very hard to do -- but it seems pretty lame that if you have a device a few years old your choices are to either 1) forego OS updates and expose yourself to security issues, or 2) keep updating the OS, even as each release becomes more demanding until the device becomes to sluggish to use.
10000% this. They should stop restricting which versions of the OS can be installed, allow downgrading (hell, Apple Silicon Macs support this!), and support the two OSes behind the current release for those that want to stay secure, but also stay behind. Either that or they need to ensure that each device's final OS release doesn't make it completely sluggish. The iPad mini 4 was a speed demon on iOS 9. It's asinine that it's practically forced to run iOS 15 which is night and day slower.
iPhone 6s runs just fine on iOS 15. Not fast by any means, but fine.
This is purely subjective. Some would probably also argue that iPadOS 15 runs fine on the iPad mini 4. Compare it to any recent model of iPad and the experience is noticeably worse. Similarly, if you take an iPhone 6s and put it next to an iPhone 8 or second generation SE and compare the performance, that iPhone 6s won't be fine by comparison. Incidentally, if Apple decided to place an emphasis on increased speed for older devices like it sort of did with iOS 12, then sure, they can breathe more life into the 6s. But they want people to upgrade their phone, so the incentive to do this is minimal.
That would likely be true for iOS 16 too if they chose to support it.
Again, it all depends on where they place emphasis. I wouldn't bank on another iOS 12-esque release though.
The 2012 MacBook Pro was discontinued in 2013. It got macOS support until 2019, 6 years after it was discontinued, pretty much as expected. To expect official macOS support for that in 2020 (outside of security updates) would be wishful thinking regardless of the performance.
Again, there is no static rule or guideline on how long Apple will support a given product. The 2012 MacBook Pro got 8 full years of OS support, with 2 years of security patch support for its final OS. The 2013 and 2014 got less, respectively. Furthermore, each Apple product is given different levels of longevity depending on the components used therein. Intel Xeon processors are tanks that are meant to last at least a decade, if not more. Intel Core i5 processors are not. Then again, some generations of Core i5 fare better than others. Sandy Bridge didn't have anywhere near as much support as Ivy Bridge. Incidentally, Kaby Lake is already getting the shaft on the Windows side of things. There is no static rule or guideline on support for any given Apple product. 6 years is not the standard or norm. Apple will sometimes go longer than that (in the case of the 6s) or shorter than that (in the case of the first and third generation iPads).
Meanwhile, this post is being typed on a 2014 Mac mini, which is running the latest version of macOS 12 Monterey in 2022. Because it wasn't discontinued until 2018, it wouldn't be a big surprise if this ancient 2014 Mac mini got macOS 13 as well.
I wouldn't bank on it. Apple most frequently culls support for Macs when there isn't a supported driver. Certainly Monterey's theme for support seemed to revolve around what was still sold in 2015, but that doesn't mean that will be macOS 13's mandate.
4th gen touch only had 256MB of RAM, iPhone 4 had 512MB of RAM. Even first gen iPad didn’t get iOS 6 or much less iOS 7 even though it also had the A4 chip, but only 256MB RAM. iPhone 3GS also missed iOS 7 because of 256MB of RAM.
I think a cleaner cutoff would be Big.Little architecture being the minimum, so A9/A8 based systems are all given the boot.
This would mean iPod touch 7G, iPhone 7 and later, iPad 6 and later, iPad mini 5 and later, iPad Air 3 and later and iPad Pro 2 and later.
On the tvOS side, it’s a different story, much less beefy OS can keep taking A8.
I can see a later revision of iOS moving the bar to A12 and later for ML, which also incidentally would raise the RAM floor to 3GB.
BIG.little in A10 Fusion wasn't as crazy different from A9 as you might think. It's a clean cutoff, for sure. But it's not that crazy of a performance difference, especially since the performance cores and efficiency cores weren't working together in tandem until A11 Bionic.
I think A11 Bionic and newer would make the most sense if architectural changes are the dividing line rather than RAM ceiling.
What if they dropped the iPod Touch because they’re releasing a new iPod similar to the Classic but has streaming & bluetooth capabilities? ?
From a marketing standpoint, it would've made way more sense to do that either shortly before discontinuing the Seventh Generation iPod touch or at the same time so as to spare the whole "End of an Era" song and dance about the end of the entire iPod line. Frankly, they could've produced such a device, still called it "iPod touch" but just stated that rather than running iOS, it's running its own streamlined OS that focuses solely on streaming music and isn't about apps or games or anything else iOS related. Add a cellular option and a half-decent UI and I'm pretty sure the thing would sell.
The iPad Mini 4 still has support because of its processor. Not its RAM. It has a 1.5GHz A8 vs the 1.1GHz and 1.4GHz found in other devices.
This article is speculation with incorrect assumptions all over.
It's 100% about RAM. The processor in the mini 4 is no different from the one in the iPhone 6. The only difference is the RAM and that's the only reason it's stuck around while every other A8 based device got dropped.
We are discussing support for the next IOS/IPadOS 16, not security updates. Those are usually available for Apple products well past where the next OS is unavailable.
No, but security updates are usually the ultimate motivator to stay current on these things. If we had the option to stay on an older iOS release and not have our $500+ iDevice slowly lose half of its initial performance over time, I'm sure most people would. Apple doesn't give the option of staying on an older release while still getting that older release patched with security updates for the iPad, iPhone, and iPod touch in the way that it does for the Mac.
Not a chance. A10 per se definitely won't get axed with iOS 16.
You do not have sufficient data to comfortably make this claim. You are also rolling with the assumption that Apple won't change their practices when they have proven time and time again that they totally can and will whenever they so feel like it.
Anyone that thinks it will hasn't followed Apple's previous OS support patterns closely. Or are you talking about iOS 17?
YOU haven't been following Apple's previous OS support patterns closely! Their support patterns when it comes to a given Apple product being able to run the latest version of its OS has never been consistent enough to make such claims! The iPhone 6s and 6s Plus are currently setting a record right now! As in, the 6 wasn't supported as long, nor the 5s before it, nor the 5/5c before it! Some devices get long support periods. Others don't. Support periods aren't dictated by discontinuation dates. That's utter nonsense. Support periods are dictated by whatever Apple decides is a priority at that point in time. That's why iOS 13 dropped support for things while iOS 14 and 15 did not. It's also the case that iOS 13 dropped support for all A7 devices and most A8 devices all in one shot. Apple could EASILY do something similar with iOS 16 with the remaining A8, A9, and even most A10 Fusion devices as well. We know nothing that can say for sure one way or another.
