Which (if any) 2020 MacBook will lose the least value when next models released?

[Smittens]

Hi guys - seeking some opinions!

Running a 2010 MBP that is somewhat painful to use. I was waiting for the 2020 MBP release for the new keyboard, but then baulked on it following the luke(miani)warm reviews/response combined with learning what is coming in the next model. A couple of months down the track and now I'm wondering again if it is worth grabbing a new one, even if I were to sell it when the next models are released with the intention of upgrading, assuming performance improves in the next release as much as people are hoping. I'm ok with it losing a slightly bigger amount in value than a new Macbook normally would, on account of the very different changes that are predicted, but I fear it being a really dumb decision financially if it was to plummet in value when the ARM Macbooks arrive.

So, I guess first up, is the general thinking that the 2020 Macbooks Air/Pro will plummet when the 2021 models are released? (In which case it would only make financial sense to buy one now if I intended holding onto it for several years)

Secondly, provided the answer to the first question is that they may lose a little more value than normal but not a huge difference, is there a particular feeling behind which will hold its value most? The Air, base 13" MBP, high spec 13" MBP? .. My feeling is the base MBP would hold its value best and that the higher the current price, the further it will fall (the high-spec 13" MBP and 16" MBP), but that may be me brainwashing myself!

To give it some context, today only, I can get the:

2020 base MBA for $1031 USD
2020 base 13" MBP for $1289 USD
2020 10th gen 13" MBP for $1935 USD

The reason I am looking at new, is that I can pay a new one off in interest-free instalments, which suits my current financial situation more than handing over lump sum of cash for a used one. The view is that as it would only be seen as a temporary purchase, I don't need the higher specs - I can get by without that for now, so it's more a question of value... Maybe it seems kinda crazy that given I've held out for this long, another 6-12 months should be tolerable!

 

[dinobear]

The less money you spend on the new one, the less money is has to loose value. So 2020 base looks good. You'd easily be able to sell it for $500 in a year I'd think. $500 loss. The 2020 13", maybe sell it for $1000 in a year. That's $1000 loss. Etc. Probably could get more, I'm just thinking what the low end would be for re-sale. I can't see them selling for less than half thier price in a year, they'll still be great machines then still.

 

[mikzn]

IMHO - 2015 MBP models - because they are still great work horses and can still have the SSD upgraded to a faster SSD with more capacity and the "key board" is the "old reliable" one

Downside might be the "glued in" battery may be due for replacement ?

 

[profcutter]

Yeah, I can't complain about my 2015. It saved me a great deal of money over a new one, and the battery had just been replaced as part of the recall.

 

[jerryk]

The base models will lose less. I went with the 2020 13" 10th gen prior to WWDC, but knowing that Apple Silicon was coming.

 

[Smittens]

Thanks for the advice guys. The sale I was looking at ended before I was approved to purchase on 0% interest. That being said, it was only $30-odd less than what I can get it for, through an education purchase from Apple, where I can also get the 0% interest. It will be the base MBP if I decide to pull the trigger. Whilst I can get by without the high-spec MBP for another year, I do need a bit more grunt than the MBA. The other idea I was (maybe am) floating, is to go a PC to tide me over h until the new releases... will no doubt continue mulling over it for another couple of years! 😆

 

[Sarajiel]

Generally speaking I'd avoid any MB Air at the moment if you look for a decent future resale value. Even in the unlikely event that the first iteration of Apple Silicon is a complete dud, the Air's poor cooling solution makes them much inferior than any bad AS laptop.

That said I'd look into a refurb from Apple if I were in your situation. Just the base MBP 13" (8th gen, 8GB/256MB) will be fine for the next 12 to 18 months and assuming that those are the last Intel versions, you won't have much problems to sell them.
Depending on how the future 13.3" and 14" Macbook lineup will look like, you might even be lucky with your sale since that machine might fill a possible future gap, if Apple splits that market segment on screensize alone.

If you go for a Windows machine and you don't mind the lower resolutions and a bit darker screens, you should take a look at the L13 and X13 Thinkpads from Lenovo. Especially since they have very nice keyboards and use the same layout of the FN+CTRL keys as Mac keyboards unlike almost all other Windows machines of that size.

 

[Smittens]

Generally speaking I'd avoid any MB Air at the moment if you look for a decent future resale value. Even in the unlikely event that the first iteration of Apple Silicon is a complete dud, the Air's poor cooling solution makes them much inferior than any bad AS laptop.

That said I'd look into a refurb from Apple if I were in your situation. Just the base MBP 13" (8th gen, 8GB/256MB) will be fine for the next 12 to 18 months and assuming that those are the last Intel versions, you won't have much problems to sell them.
Depending on how the future 13.3" and 14" Macbook lineup will look like, you might even be lucky with your sale since that machine might fill a possible future gap, if Apple splits that market segment on screensize alone.

If you go for a Windows machine and you don't mind the lower resolutions and a bit darker screens, you should take a look at the L13 and X13 Thinkpads from Lenovo. Especially since they have very nice keyboards and use the same layout of the FN+CTRL keys as Mac keyboards unlike almost all other Windows machines of that size.

Thanks for that. Regarding the refurb ones, do you mean a 2020 refurb? Or a previous release?

Will take a look at the Lenovos as well. Cheers

 

[Sarajiel]

The 2020 refurbs that started appearing this week in most countries.

Anything with butterfly keyboards is basically a paper-weight when it comes to resale value.

Anecdote from last year (all MBP 13 with the 28W CPU/4ports):
In the country where I live the largest independent Apple hardware retailer had trouble selling the old stock of 2018 MBPs which were regularly discounted by 20% (5% lower than refurbs from Apple) after the 2019s appeared. In the past you were lucky if you actually got a similar offer which usually sold out within a couple of days.
Some three months after the release of the 2019 model they still had plenty of old 2018 stock which dropped to 25% discounts occasionally on special sales. At that point they also had to start discounting the new model by ~15% since the retailer had to undercut the then appearing 2019 refurbs! Apple basically started selling almost all BTO configs in the refurb store which they usually never do here. 🤪

 

[robvas]

Never buy first year of any apple product...including the new Apple silicon models when they come out...

 

[Smittens]

The 2020 refurbs that started appearing this week in most countries.

Anything with butterfly keyboards is basically a paper-weight when it comes to resale value.

Anecdote from last year (all MBP 13 with the 28W CPU/4ports):
In the country where I live the largest independent Apple hardware retailer had trouble selling the old stock of 2018 MBPs which were regularly discounted by 20% (5% lower than refurbs from Apple) after the 2019s appeared. In the past you were lucky if you actually got a similar offer which usually sold out within a couple of days.
Some three months after the release of the 2019 model they still had plenty of old 2018 stock which dropped to 25% discounts occasionally on special sales. At that point they also had to start discounting the new model by ~15% since the retailer had to undercut the then appearing 2019 refurbs! Apple basically started selling almost all BTO configs in the refurb store which they usually never do here. 🤪

Thanks for that! I'll have to keep my eyes peeled. At this stage, there are none available, that I can see, in Australia. I'm starting to feel better about purchasing, tbh. There is a part of me that is beginning to think there will be a market for these machines for the Windows users regardless of what happens next. Also, there is that risk of waiting and then the next ones being duds.

It might seem ridiculous, but I wish Apple would give more information regarding release dates etc. It's not a field I'm especially interested or knowledgable in and I don't know all the reasons behind Apple being so secretive, but it's a massive pain for consumers.

 

[jerryk]

Thanks for that! I'll have to keep my eyes peeled. At this stage, there are none available, that I can see, in Australia. I'm starting to feel better about purchasing, tbh. There is a part of me that is beginning to think there will be a market for these machines for the Windows users regardless of what happens next. Also, there is that risk of waiting and then the next ones being duds.

It might seem ridiculous, but I wish Apple would give more information regarding release dates etc. It's not a field I'm especially interested or knowledgable in and I don't know all the reasons behind Apple being so secretive, but it's a massive pain for consumers.

The Osborne Effect is why tech companies are very secretive about product launch dates. They need to pay people and creditors every week. That requires a steady and predictable cash flow. And that cash flow requires people to keep buying the product they make today rather than hold off buying until the product they will make tomorrow is in stores.

 

[Smittens]

The Osborne Effect is why tech companies are very secretive about product launch dates. They need to pay people and creditors every week. That requires a steady and predictable cash flow. And that cash flow requires people to keep buying the product they make today rather than hold off buying until the product they will make tomorrow is in stores.

Learnt something today - thanks!

 

[LeeW]

If the next-gen MBA/MBP are all ARM, which is the intention then anything previous gen (intel) will lose a lot in my view. The market will be awash with devices the majority won't be interested in simply because it's not ARM.

Not saying that is right, but it is what will happen. Anything intel will be seen as a step back unless those that really need Bootcamp or other missing features.

Buy an intel device today and in a few years, there will already be an established secondary market for ARM devices when you come to sell. Expect to lose a lot by that time.

 

[Sarajiel]

Anything intel will be seen as a step back unless those that really need Bootcamp or other missing features.

Generally speaking you are not wrong and I agree on that when it comes to the long term view. However there will be certain areas, especially in the short term, where some Intel Macs will still be quite popular. I'm convinced that Macbooks with scissor-style keyboards will most likely be one of them, especially since the repair program of the butterfly keyboards is not infinite. iMacs will probably drop in value rather quickly.

If you look back to the PowerPC to Intel switch, you might remember that certain machines were still quite popular while others didn't sell at all. For example in the area of professional audio production, the old G4 towers and even their aftermarket upgrades sold for years since many studios and audio engineers preferred them over the G5 towers or cheese grater Mac Pros for latency and hardware compatibility reasons.