You can take a movie and only include say - video stream, highest level audio and perhaps one subtitle and it would usually vary from 17-23 gigs. lets take the 17 gig "movie only" x 3.8 for 4k and it is over 68 gigs if all things were equal with H.264. Lets figure that a real compression difference is maxed at 30 percent for H.265. This gives us just over 45 gigs for a 17gig blue ray counterpart (again for movie only and just one audio and one sub). When you start getting into movies over 20 gigs blue ray level and then go to 4k, it isn't a good fit. Let's also consider (though I am not one of them) that people do want the extras, the multiple subs, the different audio streams etc. This would simply make a 50 gig disc a non-choice unless further compression is used which means all that goodness of H.265 is lost with over use/compression.
I know I used rather generic number values but the point remains that 50 gigs may not be enough or just barely enough and that means once again (if they go that route), a compromise is made that didn't need to be made other than someone making a fast buck off unassuming customers.
Again, the 4K BD discs are doubling to 100GB (there's also a 66GB variant). I'm not sure why you keep trying to "fit" them into a 50GB BD disc. Maybe I'm not understanding something? But if I am understanding you correctly, yes, 50GB is a non-choice because they are going to be using 66GB or 100GB versions of BD discs (I believe there's also a 200GB version working). So that yields more space to pair with a more efficient compression codec of H265. I'm not sure I'm understanding the issue.
Yes, if they try to jam 4K into a 50GB BD disc using only H264, that is going to be a problem for some movies without over-compression. But that's not what they plan to do.
Over-compression will likely come with the streaming services trying to serve up 4K. Unlike discs, streaming involves quality tradeoffs for file sizes. At 4K resolutions, it seems likely there will be a good amount of compression to try to strike a balance (same as now in a 1080p streamed movie might be 3GB while it's BD version might be 25GB- obviously the bit pinch is on there). If one were to buy the streamed file and then burn it to a disc, I would think that ALL 4K movies formatted for streaming would easily fit into the 25GB of the original BD standard... probably with extras.
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Hmm.. Did you rip your disc regularly? 'cause its usually in the 30+ GB zone for me. Sometimes it's in 40+ zone if the movie is longer than usual (2 hours). That means it's bigger than the 1-layer Blu-Ray disc originally came out which is only 25 GB.
This compares to less than 10 GB. file for streaming.
And don't forget that 4K disc will contain extra too, and people with 4K TV most likely will want, and ask for, extra in 4K in the future.
Right, I'm just showing extreme examples. Some 1080p movies will be >40GB. I even listed a few of those. Others are >30GB and still others are <30GB and <20GB.
And I'm not saying they have to jettison the extras. The new 4K standard is 66GB or 100GB (and I think there's a 200GB variant too). There's plenty of room for the 4K movie and extras. The math being slung around is not universal. For example, the "3.8 larger" is not always the case. Imagine a 5 hour movie that is nothing but a black screen. Even H264 could compress that into almost no space, whether 1080p, 4K, 8K or even 16K. A number like 3.8 is just a very general thing like 20% to 50% greater compression in H265. There's lots of variables involved in every single movie. There's likely some short, complex films that would have a multiple much greater than 3.8. You could probably make one of these yourself with a 4K camcorder aimed out the window of a car as you drive down the highway. Every pixel would be changing in every frame. That would yield a very large H264 file if you drove for even 30 minutes.
The reality is that 100GB 4K BD discs are going to hold longer-than-average movies and extras without a problem. Compression to squeeze a very long movie into a single disc won't be noticeable. If there is some special film that needs to be as pristine as possible, they'll do the LOTR Return of the King Extended trick and spread the film over TWO 100GB BD discs, with extras on another disc or two. Or get the 200GB version going. No problem.