You are totally right, on average it must be a rip off cos Apple will make a profit on it. But it is a bit like insurance. Insurance is also a rip off, cos the insurance company makes a profit. But it does protect you against unknown large expenses. It's a matter of taking a risk or not.
In Europe Apple care is more of a rip off cos by law you have more than 1 year warranty.
Sorry, but I disagree: "Insurance is also a rip off, cos the insurance company makes a profit". What company in business today doesn't make a profit. If you're in business the objective is the bottom line...
Actually, most insurance companies do not make money on premiums versus claims; they make money investing collected premiums. They're margins are actually very small.
Also, if you consider all the fraud and scams perpetrated against the insurance industry, its amazing premiums arent higher than they are. Im sure everybody knows someone who had a claim and exaggerated it.
It comes down to the fact that people do not like paying for intangibles. When you buy insurance or Applecare you dont take it home and open a box an use it, its just there if you ever need it.
Sorry for the rant. However, I do agree that there are BAD insurance companies out there that take advantage of people, case in point, State Farm in New Orleans. You just need to do your homework and read your policy.