Why I don't think M3 iMac will come out this year.

[WilliApple]

Ok, you know this product called Apple Vision Pro?

Well I think Vision is delaying the M3 Chip, because Vision has the M2 chip in it.

There are a bunch of rumors about the M3 iMac, but I don't believe they are true.

It kinda makes sense from a business standpoint.
Apple would want to release the last M2 Products first, being Vision Pro and M2 iPad Air.

Once they do this, then only then will they start M3 Macs.

This is why I don't believe we will see any new Macs this year, but possibly early next year.
And yes, I believe M2 iPad Air is coming later this month.

What do you think about this?

 

[bkmoore773]

Who said the final release version of the Vision Pro will ship with an M2 chip?

I think it's a safe assumption there will be an M3 iMac at some point in the near future (inside 12 months), but beyond that it's only speculation.

 

[WilliApple]

Who said the final release version of the Vision Pro will ship with an M2 chip?

I think it's a safe assumption there will be an M3 iMac at some point in the near future (inside 12 months), but beyond that it's only speculation.

Uh, Apple did at WWDC.

 

[Chuckeee]

I agree with your assertion about the M3 iMac release but not necessarily your reasoning. I believe Apple will want to play up the M3 release as a big deal and will want to release multiple M3 products simultaneously, including iMac (24”), 13” & 15” MacBook Air and 13” MacBook Pro. And that there is not enough parts and stockpiled inventory for a release this year.

 

[picpicmac]

Uh, Apple did at WWDC.

And it will make for great press when, upon release of the AVP, Apple announces that Apple was able to get the M3 out in time for the AVP.

 

[sack_peak]

Ok, you know this product called Apple Vision Pro?

Well I think Vision is delaying the M3 Chip, because Vision has the M2 chip in it.

There are a bunch of rumors about the M3 iMac, but I don't believe they are true.

It kinda makes sense from a business standpoint.
Apple would want to release the last M2 Products first, being Vision Pro and M2 iPad Air.

Once they do this, then only then will they start M3 Macs.

This is why I don't believe we will see any new Macs this year, but possibly early next year.
And yes, I believe M2 iPad Air is coming later this month.

What do you think about this?

Vision Pro will likely use the M3 chip. Apple couldn't disclose that months ago as it would cause people not to buy any M2 Macs.

Why the M3? Because it consumes less power and would have better performance. On the 5nm M2 it has about 2 hours battery. With 3nm M3 it would be longer.

Sony's total microdisplay capacity is around 900,000 units per year. So that's about 450,000 Vision Pro annually?

M3 will be out in Q1 2024 before April 2024.

 

[Chuckeee]

Why the M3? Because it consumes less power and would have better performance. On the 5nm M2 it has about 2 hours battery. With 3nm M3 it would be longer.

Evidence?

This sounds like pure conjecture. The technology advancement leading to the M3 implementation COULD be designed for improved power efficiency but most likely it will be designed for improved performance and addition of new capabilities while minimizing power consumption GROWTH. This has been the historical trend with M1->M2, A15->A16 and A16->A17 (this being the most relevant example) design evolution.

While an M3 variant that just maintained M1 performance capabilities while minimizing power consumption would be a very interesting development. There is no evidence for the development of such an M3 LP (“low power”) configuration. When I’ve mentioned this idea before a prevailing sediment was, “It already exists and it’s called the A17pro”.

 

[sack_peak]

Evidence?

This sounds like pure conjecture. The technology advancement leading to the M3 implementation COULD be designed for improved power efficiency but most likely it will be designed for improved performance and addition of new capabilities while minimizing power consumption GROWTH. This has been the historical trend with M1->M2, A15->A16 and A16->A17 (this being the most relevant example) design evolution.

Die shrinks always contributes to lower power consumption.

Apple's previous implementation of die shrinks almost always results in lower power consumption while improving raw performance.

First MBP back in 2006 had a lower binned Intel chip announced to be shipped. Days before shipping it was given a higher binned Intel chip.

Apple in the past stealth up-binned 1 year model Intel Mac mini. They did not ID on the box which one had the better chips with the older lower binned chips.

Other than tech reasons it is a great PR move that already cost into Vision Pro's $3,499 MSRP.

 

[Chuckeee]

Die shrinks always contributes to lower power consumption.

Except Apple [in their infinite wisdom] has always used the reduction of element size to increase the number of elements on the die. With the net effect that the overall die size still always (so far) increases (A16 to A17)

 

[sack_peak]

Except Apple [in the infinite wisdom] has always used the reduction of element size to increase the number of elements on the die. With the net effect that the overall die size still always (so far) increases (A16 to A17)

And yet didnt power consumption diminish somewhat?

They reduced the iPhone 15 Pro & Pro Max's battery mAh without meaningfully shortening power consumption.

You are also pointing to a single data point.

What about the Apple A4 to A16. Haven't they the next tech node improve power consumption?

Other than tech reasons it is a great PR move that already embedded into the cost of the Vision Pro's $3,499 MSRP.

 

[bkmoore773]

Uh, Apple did at WWDC.

Apple's announcement was for a developer-release version of the Apple Vision Pro. They did not say, "and this will be the final configuration that we will ship next year to customers, battery dongle and all..." I would expect that Apple will continue to refine the Apple Vision based on feedback from developers and their own internal roadmap and testing.

 

[Andres Cantu]

I don't see why Apple would stick an M3 in the Vision Pro when the M2 has already been out for almost 2 years, which means they can faster recoup the cost of R&D for the product (instead of using a more expensive M3). I don't see how Apple would lose any meaningful number of sales if they keep the M2 vs. an M3. Their target market will buy the device regardless. There's that, and there's also an R1 chip, so it's not like the M2 is the only computational chip on the device.

Seems to me like the M chips are on a 2-year lifecycle. 2020 for M1, 2022 for M2, 2024 for M3, etc. I see the M3 iMac being released in the Spring of next year, and then followed by the laptops in the Summer.

 

[picpicmac]

I don't see why Apple would stick an M3 in the Vision Pro

Because:
1) the AVP is a flagship product and companies dress these up in their best clothes;
2) the M3 will have improved graphics over the M2.
3) the M3 may consume less energy for the equivalent amount of processing (see debate above).

there's also an R1 chip

The R1 is for real-time processing of inputs (i.e., all the sensors), thus relieving the M-series chip of that duty.

faster recoup the cost of R&D for the product

The M2 R&D costs are spread around the much more voluminous Mac sales. Same will happen for the M3. Only the R1 will be unique to the AVP, and even that may change if my hopes come true that future iMacs (and portables) will integrate more sensors and allow one to use gestures to get away from mice-dom.

 

[WilliApple]

Sorry, it is also on their website that Vision Pro uses the M2 Chip.

 

[Abazigal]

My guess is that Apple is telegraphing that the M3 will only be ready next April or June.

They just announced the M2 15" MBA this June. They wouldn't want to release a M3 MBA so soon (ie: less than a year later). We may see the M3 MBA get refreshed during next year's WWDC.

Personally, I am hoping we see the M3 iPad Pro with OLED always-on-display, plus new M3 Macs next April, but I am not sure that they want to announce the M3 so soon after the vision pro is announced.

 

[Andres Cantu]

Sorry, it is also on their website that Vision Pro uses the M2 Chip.

Apparently that's not enough of a fact for everybody...

 

[sack_peak]

The M2 R&D costs are spread around the much more voluminous Mac sales. Same will happen for the M3.

To be more specific Apple Mac chips are derived from the iPhone chips.

The 1st 80% or more of the R&D cost of the M chips are subsidized by A chips.

The last 20% or less of further R&D funding comes from Macs, iPad Pros & iPad Air revenue.

This is why all Apple chips have a mobile 1st approach of performance per watt.

 

[sack_peak]

They just announced the M2 15" MBA this June.

They released the MBA 15" M2 last Jun 2023 for the start of school that Sep. So if they delayed it to 2024 then that's an opportunity loss.

Apple refreshing their Macs within 6-9 months is not unheard of during the Intel & PowerPC years.

Personally, I am hoping we see the M3 iPad Pro with OLED always-on-display, plus new M3 Macs next April,

iPad Pro with AMOLED display has been in the rumors as early as 2017 for the 2018 model. It likely has not happened yet for design targets & parts cost reasons. This is incidentally the very likely reason why no iMac 32" 6K has come out yet with starting price of $1,799 to $1,999. Historically any computer parts goes down in prices over time. Manufacturers pass on the savings to have an edge over the competition.

A known scheduled change to occur with any Apple product with a built-in battery is a model refresh to a user changeable battery by 2027 in compliance with EU law.

I intend to replace my 2019 MBP 16", 2018 iPad Pro 11" & 2018 AW4 to the 1st one with it as they'd all be nearly a decade old by then. My 2019 MBP 16" would receive its final macOS Security Update that year while 2018 iPad Pro 11" & 2018 AW4 final Security Update a year later.

Android got AMOLED dispalys in 2010 while iPhone go it in 2017 because it would be a PR headache when color accuracy isn't that good, burn-in will occur and low nits of brightness. 6 years later and MR has yet to report of any burn-in iPhone X. The AMOLED burn in was the reason why I bought into a 8 Plus as my 2015 Google Nexus 6P had burn-in within 12 months. That is perhaps the reason why it was cheaper than the iPhone 6s Plus.

but I am not sure that they want to announce the M3 so soon after the vision pro is announced.

Tim Cook's "one more thing" would likely be the "free" upgrade of Vision Pro from M2 to M3. This would be received with a thunderous applause for a $3499 device.

 

[HobeSoundDarryl]

I don't think an M3 Mac will launch before Vpro if M2 remains in the Vpro. However, I suspect Vpro is already testing on M3 so as not to hold up the M3 train and/or pitch a Vpro launch proposition of buying "old" tech in the new wonder product. So I do NOT at all see this as a reason to hold up an M3 iMac if ready.

I believe a much better reason is money: the one thing Apple Inc cares about above all else. Roll out any single M3 Mac and all others are immediately viewed as "old technology" which could turn off some holiday buying in the most lucrative time of the year. I know if I was interested in a Mac and the next tech tier was released, I'd delay my own purchase until the one I want was "up to date."

My guess: if there is a new iMac update this month, it will have M2 and probably be a press release update. Then Apple marketing can spin that "all Macs are on latest & greatest technology: so buy now." Anything else could hinder some purchases of Macs for the holidays as people 'in the know' opt to wait until the one they want is updated too.

If 2024 is M3 year, I fully expect the wonder product to launch with M3. I cannot see it being last of the M2s and then taking the pounding in the press when everything else takes a step forward.

 

[Abazigal]

I believe a much better reason is money: the one thing Apple Inc cares about above all else. Roll out any single M3 Mac and all others are immediately viewed as "old technology" which could turn off some holiday buying in the most lucrative time of the year. I know if I was interested in a Mac and the next tech tier was released, I'd delay my own purchase until the one I want was "up to date."

Probably. But not for the reasons you stated.

Processor design is expensive. Given that Macs and iPads don't ship in quantities anywhere near the iPhone, it's wasteful and cost-prohibitive to keep changing your processor every year. People also don't upgrade their Macs and iPads that often (you are looking at 3-5 years on average for tables, and maybe 5-7 years for Macs), and recent statistics suggest that the bulk of Apple hardware sales are coming from their current user base (ie: upgraders who already own Apple devices).

It helps that Intel and AMD don't really have anything remotely close to the M1 chip when it comes to performance and battery efficiency in laptops, so Apple likely feels confident that they stretch out the refresh cycle to once every 2 years (and maybe even extend that to 3 in the future), and still not lose their competitive edge in this area. They are not really losing any sales as a result, and refreshing your processors so quickly is not going to result in any noticeable sales improvements either.

I will also counter that money is only the second-most important thing that Apple cares about. The first is still control. 😬

 

[picpicmac]

Apparently that's not enough of a fact for everybody...

Because it is not an item currently for sale. That's a fact for everybody.

When Apple actually offers a product for sale, the description in the Apple Store will be what is in the product.

I'm not saying the AVP will not have an M2, I do believe though that if the M3 is ready in time that Apple could simply move on to that.

And it is obvious why Apple will not have said the AVP will use the M3 up to now: because Apple has not yet announced any M3 products or when they are coming.

 

[s1oplus]

Ok, you know this product called Apple Vision Pro?

Well I think Vision is delaying the M3 Chip, because Vision has the M2 chip in it.

There are a bunch of rumors about the M3 iMac, but I don't believe they are true.

It kinda makes sense from a business standpoint.
Apple would want to release the last M2 Products first, being Vision Pro and M2 iPad Air.

Once they do this, then only then will they start M3 Macs.

This is why I don't believe we will see any new Macs this year, but possibly early next year.
And yes, I believe M2 iPad Air is coming later this month.

What do you think about this?

It came. I also didnt expect it to come this year

 

[Adelphos33]

This point was repeated a lot, but why would people care what chip is in the Vision Pro - that product is all about the other technologies that are launching