I think, at same time it can dent competitors' sales as well. Any other laptop manufaturer offers simple "office typewriter" 15" machines, and only Apple considers 15" screen like some super-duper-professional feature. Gosh, many of people just have to wear glasses and want a little bit bigger screen to see better.
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Why MacBook Air will overtake the Pro line-up
- Thread starter Mr West
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Yeah, I mean, I’m in the market for a larger screen without all the power myself. I used an Air as my primary for years until I decided I just didn’t want to deal with the 13” screen anymore.
There is a lot of moving pieces here:
- Define ”overtake.” Units sold, revenue, net profit, DAU, market share, etc?
- Timeline? This transition has a long tail, primarily beginning with Box/AWS ~2005/2006 and folk have been proclaiming everything will be in the cloud for the last 15 year. 😉 This is similar to how everything was client-server before that, whether it be terminal or remote instances.
- Nature of computing. How people use their computers continues to change and considering the length of this transition already, I’d be cautious about presuming that the world’s computing needs will remain static.
Here’s how I see the market continuing to evolve:
- thin and light devices continue to offer enough features at a lower price point to satisfy most consumers’ needs and serve as viable products. This include the MacBook Air, iMac, Mac mini along with the various iPad flavors. This is arguably already true today and doesn’t require a major change in cloud computing.
- some work will continue to require local and/or specialized computing resources necessitating the need for higher performance and less portable devices. While everything can be done in the cloud, rarely is that appropriate considering cost and other trade offs.
- new form factors will be introduced that have the potential to disrupt the existing paradigm (e.g., everywhere AR). I suspect these would take market share from the thin and light segment but not mobile (e.g., iPhone) nor high compute (e.g., Mac Pro)
- the transition to more remote processing will bifurcate by both use case (e.g., cloud gaming) and application, contributing to the long tail of adoption. And with more remote processing, continued costs (e.g., subscription) will increase, giving customers the choice between paying once for local hardware or perpetually for cloud resources.
Now if we look 15 years into the future, it’s entirely possible that most consumers will opt for some sort of tablet or mobile device as their primary computer, which are more accessible (touch based), offer more hardware capabilities (sensors like FaceID, LiDAR, pressure sensitivity) and conceptually simpler. They could augment <ahem> this with an AR device for immersive computing/creating, increasing usage while potentially providing a better/more productive experience. At that point, even if there is a MacBook Air in the lineup I suspect it won’t be a top seller.
- Define ”overtake.” Units sold, revenue, net profit, DAU, market share, etc?
- Timeline? This transition has a long tail, primarily beginning with Box/AWS ~2005/2006 and folk have been proclaiming everything will be in the cloud for the last 15 year. 😉 This is similar to how everything was client-server before that, whether it be terminal or remote instances.
- Nature of computing. How people use their computers continues to change and considering the length of this transition already, I’d be cautious about presuming that the world’s computing needs will remain static.
Here’s how I see the market continuing to evolve:
- thin and light devices continue to offer enough features at a lower price point to satisfy most consumers’ needs and serve as viable products. This include the MacBook Air, iMac, Mac mini along with the various iPad flavors. This is arguably already true today and doesn’t require a major change in cloud computing.
- some work will continue to require local and/or specialized computing resources necessitating the need for higher performance and less portable devices. While everything can be done in the cloud, rarely is that appropriate considering cost and other trade offs.
- new form factors will be introduced that have the potential to disrupt the existing paradigm (e.g., everywhere AR). I suspect these would take market share from the thin and light segment but not mobile (e.g., iPhone) nor high compute (e.g., Mac Pro)
- the transition to more remote processing will bifurcate by both use case (e.g., cloud gaming) and application, contributing to the long tail of adoption. And with more remote processing, continued costs (e.g., subscription) will increase, giving customers the choice between paying once for local hardware or perpetually for cloud resources.
Now if we look 15 years into the future, it’s entirely possible that most consumers will opt for some sort of tablet or mobile device as their primary computer, which are more accessible (touch based), offer more hardware capabilities (sensors like FaceID, LiDAR, pressure sensitivity) and conceptually simpler. They could augment <ahem> this with an AR device for immersive computing/creating, increasing usage while potentially providing a better/more productive experience. At that point, even if there is a MacBook Air in the lineup I suspect it won’t be a top seller.
I just watched a seminar that discussed the transition of major video content creators to cloud based workflows. The premise was 'dailies' that used to take a day to turn around from film set to editorial will soon take an hour.
There is already Cloud Collaboration built into Davinci Resolve that allows remote realtime simultaneous editing on the same project.
As satellite based internet becomes more common I can see the trend for cloud based workflow.
Where I don't see the trend is for less powerful computers in media creation.
There is already Cloud Collaboration built into Davinci Resolve that allows remote realtime simultaneous editing on the same project.
As satellite based internet becomes more common I can see the trend for cloud based workflow.
Where I don't see the trend is for less powerful computers in media creation.
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The main reason I want a 16” mbpro is for the screen size, ports, and light video editing (content). If it wasn’t for that, I’d just get a MacBook Air. My laptop stays plugged in on a desk 100% of the time at home. But I do use it for travel and when working on the couch at someone else’s house. I’m still using a 2014 15” MacBook Pro and it definitely is time for an upgrade.
The very first slim air was fascinating to me. This envelope size. Mindblowing.
However I always had MBPs, the better monitor, the better infrastructure, more options to pick from. Personally I am leaning back more and more to have everything inside my box instead of sending stuff up and down all the time. Even with networks available. So big onboard storage is something I am interested in not just in a lightweight cloud terminal.
Waiting for the M2 3nm MBP.
However I always had MBPs, the better monitor, the better infrastructure, more options to pick from. Personally I am leaning back more and more to have everything inside my box instead of sending stuff up and down all the time. Even with networks available. So big onboard storage is something I am interested in not just in a lightweight cloud terminal.
Waiting for the M2 3nm MBP.
Web apps still suck compared to local apps and a 13 inch screen is still too small to do professional work on. That is why we still need the Pro.
Cloud computing remains an expensive way to do what you could do locally, unless you need to operate at a very large scale with dynamic workloads where your own equipment would be sitting idle too often.
Cloud computing remains an expensive way to do what you could do locally, unless you need to operate at a very large scale with dynamic workloads where your own equipment would be sitting idle too often.
Yeah, there are still too many instances where control of your data matter too much. For personal use, maybe, but in industry, there are many spots where this just isn't feasible.
On the other hand, I use a MacBook Pro at home by choice, but linux and windows servers and workstations at work because that's what we have.
How do you define "control of your data"? Are you referring to the cloud provider level, or a 3rd party application? Because if you are running the cloud infra (eg AWS) you can control your data securely without issue.
I'd start by asking under what circumstances I might lose my data, or access to it. Or, someone else's I guess.
Ok, well you're potentially referring to a bug in the SaaS layer on top of the cloud infrastructure. Software bugs will always be a potential problem.
Something like this is not really a problem you'd face from a cloud infrastructure vendor such as AWS if you set it up correctly, as not even AWS can access your data.
Realistically, they will not. Any company's lineup usually scales to accommodate contemporary needs/demand, and there is always going to be some diversity in that.
But it is the first time probably that a laptop like macbook air does seem like a quite appealing choice for doing some types of serious data work. It is not just that doing things in the cloud is convenient, but it is getting more and more that doing certain things locally starts being too inconvenient, so in the end it does not matter if your computer is 200% faster or what, it is still going to be a hassle.
I am not sure I would choose an MBA my self for work, but right now I am temporarily using one after shifting from windows work laptops and it is a huge relief. And the silent factor a huge plus, too. Spending hours working above a non-ending fan has become unbearable to me.
But it is the first time probably that a laptop like macbook air does seem like a quite appealing choice for doing some types of serious data work. It is not just that doing things in the cloud is convenient, but it is getting more and more that doing certain things locally starts being too inconvenient, so in the end it does not matter if your computer is 200% faster or what, it is still going to be a hassle.
I am not sure I would choose an MBA my self for work, but right now I am temporarily using one after shifting from windows work laptops and it is a huge relief. And the silent factor a huge plus, too. Spending hours working above a non-ending fan has become unbearable to me.
I'm unclear what I've said bothers you. I'm saying it's not the best tool for every job.
However, I can also assume the Airs may well overtake the Pro. For my uses, I'll take the Pro.
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Nothing you’ve said bothers me. I’m simply trying to provide a clarification that there is nothing inherent about cloud computing infrastructure that prevents you having complete control of any data stored using cloud infrastructure from a technology standpoint. You can safely store data in the cloud that not even the vendor (Eg, AWS) can read or access in any way.
The potential issues around data ownership and control of your own data arise because of design decisions made by the developers who build the application.