Why the iPhone WILL be announced at WWDC

[CherryJello]

I think it is going to be announced at WWDC for a release in late July. The 4 main reasons are

1. Leaked parts in the past have usually been genuine and start to appear around a month and a half before release. Example being last years 4S back leaked on August 26th 2011 and the 4S was released October 14th 2011, a diference of 49 days. This years iPhone back leaked May 29th which 49 days later would be July 17th. So I would go with a July 20th release day, as Apple likes to release iPhones on Fridays.

2. A new screen size means Apple needs to give developers time to update their applications. Whenever the new iPhone is released, it won’t be a week and a half after it’s announced. Apple wants developers to have time to take advantage of the longer screen. There could also be new UI functionality because of extra screen space which would also require time to develop for. I think Apple will have to bite the bullet and say "Yes, we prefer to release phones shortly after an announcement, but changing the screen size is a big enough deal for developers that an early announcement is needed.

3. The unusually high number of TBA Developer sessions at WWDC. Gruber said it’s an obvious sign that they’re about something new, but the number means it’s something big. To quote “…I think something’s up.” To those with an open mind about the release date, it’s kind of obvious. These sessions are for making your apps 4 inch compatible and working in the added functionality this space adds.

4. There are millions of AT&T costumers who are currently on the 2 year update cycle that began with the 3G. 2 years later they upgraded to the iPhone 4 and now it’s time to get the iPhone 5. Many contracts will be up by the end of June, which by releasing the iPhone 5 a month later shortens the time people can wander to Andriod by 3 months. 3 months is an eternity for those in the corporate world, hoping to keep costumers with their brand.

As leaks about software and hardware for Apple have become more and more routine, there are two areas where they know they can still surprise. Price and release date. Those are only known by top management and closely guarded. Think back about the iPad announcement, almost everything was known except the price and when it was said to be $499, people where astonished. Here’s to hoping for a surprise next week.

 

[matttye]

iOS betas are usually in the hands of developers for a while before the new hardware is released, but the new iOS hasn't even been announced yet.

How do you account for that?

 

[CherryJello]

iOS betas are usually in the hands of developers for a while before the new hardware is released, but the new iOS hasn't even been announced yet.

How do you account for that?

Let's say that the only key feature for iOS 6 is that fact it allows for a larger screen...you couldn't have announced that in the spring. So they announce iOS 6 and Beta 1 at WWDC. 9 to 5 Mac said their source for all of these iPhone 5 leaks also mentioned that iOS 6 was very far along and could allow for an early release. Apple releases 2 big betas...one next week, one at the end of June and the iPhone 5 comes out at the end of July. That could be enough time if iOS 6 is a solid as some believe.

 

[ThatsMeRight]

My personal opinion: I (partly) agree with you. I'm not 100% certain they will announce a new iPhone, but I definitely think it is a possibility.

I created a topic earlier about this, if you are interested, read it. https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/1377054/. I posted this before we saw the design leaks.

iOS betas are usually in the hands of developers for a while before the new hardware is released, but the new iOS hasn't even been announced yet.

How do you account for that?

I've got a theory about this. There is a possibility that Apple will announce an 'iPhone 5' (sixth generation iPhone) at the WWDC and iOS 6. They could simply announce the 'iPhone 5' and launch it near the end of July or near the beginning of August.

In the past, Apple introduced the iPhone 3G in June and launched on the 11th of July. The iPhone 4 was launched near the end of June in the US, but the second batch of countries had a launch date of the 31st of July (!).

So Apple could simply introduce iOS 6 and a sixth generation iPhone. iOS 6 available immediately and almost five weeks later (July 13) they could launch the 'iPhone 5'. That gives them five weeks to push out new betas and that gives developers the time to adjust. They could also go for July 20 (six weeks after introduction) or July 27 (seven weeks after introduction).

At this point, I just assume that Apple will announce a new iPhone in September or October... but there's definitely a possibility that we might see a new iPhone in just seven days.

Edit: and a (late) July or early August launch will also give them time to ramp up production without worrying about leaks.

 

[cyks]

Let's say that the only key feature for iOS 6 is that fact it allows for a larger screen...

Considering that there have been improvements in each of the iOS upgrades and that Apple needs to step it up due to new competition, it is HIGHLY unlikely that the only new feature will be a larger screen.

If that were the case, the new iPhone would simply run iOS 5.1.


If for that reason alone, you are likely wrong.

Not to mention, the title should read, "Why I think the iPhone WILL be announced at WWDC"

 

[matttye]

My personal opinion: I (partly) agree with you. I'm not 100% certain they will announce a new iPhone, but I definitely think it is a possibility.

I created a topic earlier about this, if you are interested, read it. https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/1377054/. I posted this before we saw the design leaks.



I've got a theory about this. There is a possibility that Apple will announce an 'iPhone 5' (sixth generation iPhone) at the WWDC and iOS 6. They could simply announce the 'iPhone 5' and launch it near the end of July or near the beginning of August.

In the past, Apple introduced the iPhone 3G in June and launched on the 11th of July. The iPhone 4 was launched near the end of June in the US, but the second batch of countries had a launch date of the 31st of July (!).

So Apple could simply introduce iOS 6 and a sixth generation iPhone. iOS 6 available immediately and almost five weeks later (July 13) they could launch the 'iPhone 5'. That gives them five weeks to push out new betas and that gives developers the time to adjust. They could also go for July 20 (six weeks after introduction) or July 27 (seven weeks after introduction).

At this point, I just assume that Apple will announce a new iPhone in September or October... but there's definitely a possibility that we might see a new iPhone in just seven days.

Edit: and a (late) July or early August launch will also give them time to ramp up production without worrying about leaks.

IOS has traditionally been announced around march for a july release on devices, or June for an October release on devices. That has worked well so far and been plenty of time to allow bugs to be ironed out.

Sorry, but you guys are living in cloud cuckoo land if you think the new iPhone will be launched in July.

 

[ThatsMeRight]

IOS has traditionally been announced around march for a july release on devices, or June for an October release on devices. That has worked well so far and been plenty of time to allow bugs to be ironed out.

Sorry, but you guys are living in cloud cuckoo land if you think the new iPhone will be launched in July.

Yeah, let's say that people who think different about things live in 'cloud cuckoo land'.

 

[matttye]

Yeah, let's say that people who think different about things live in 'cloud cuckoo land'.

When there's absolutely NO evidence to suggest that the phone will be announced and released in time for July, especially given that there is evidence to the contrary, then yes, you're living in a dream world.

 

[CherryJello]

My personal opinion: I (partly) agree with you. I'm not 100% certain they will announce a new iPhone, but I definitely think it is a possibility.

I created a topic earlier about this, if you are interested, read it. https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/1377054/. I posted this before we saw the design leaks.



I've got a theory about this. There is a possibility that Apple will announce an 'iPhone 5' (sixth generation iPhone) at the WWDC and iOS 6. They could simply announce the 'iPhone 5' and launch it near the end of July or near the beginning of August.

In the past, Apple introduced the iPhone 3G in June and launched on the 11th of July. The iPhone 4 was launched near the end of June in the US, but the second batch of countries had a launch date of the 31st of July (!).

So Apple could simply introduce iOS 6 and a sixth generation iPhone. iOS 6 available immediately and almost five weeks later (July 13) they could launch the 'iPhone 5'. That gives them five weeks to push out new betas and that gives developers the time to adjust. They could also go for July 20 (six weeks after introduction) or July 27 (seven weeks after introduction).

At this point, I just assume that Apple will announce a new iPhone in September or October... but there's definitely a possibility that we might see a new iPhone in just seven days.

Edit: and a (late) July or early August launch will also give them time to ramp up production without worrying about leaks.

I read your original post and you make some very good points. Another thought I have about the changing of how Apple releases Betas for iOS is how Apple changed their software release cycle for OSX. They went from multi-year breaks from major releases to now one a year starting with Mountain Lion. This could be a sign their also changing how they develop for iOS. Instead a 7 or 8 betas they could just be doing 2 or 3 major ones. Also the fact there have been so few updates to 5.0 compared to 4.0 could mean Apple programers have been really focused on iOS 6.

 

[ThatsMeRight]

When there's absolutely NO evidence to suggest that the phone will be announced and released in time for July, especially given that there is evidence to the contrary, then yes, you're living in a dream world.

There is no evidence to the contrary. If you are going to point out that the iPhone 4S launched in October and that iOS 6 was announced during WWDC 2011: that doesn't mean anything. There is, at this point, no pattern. You need at least two years for a pattern.

Did you read this? https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/1377054/

So yes, I do believe there is a POSSIBILITY that a new iPhone will be announced.

 

[CherryJello]

When there's absolutely NO evidence to suggest that the phone will be announced and released in time for July, especially given that there is evidence to the contrary, then yes, you're living in a dream world.

I would say all of these hardware part leaks are a very good sign something is afoot. I've been following Apple rumors for years, and hardware leaks like this almost always happen close to a release. It's very suspicious.

 

[matttye]

There is no evidence to the contrary. If you are going to point out that the iPhone 4S launched in October and that iOS 6 was announced during WWDC 2011: that doesn't mean anything. There is, at this point, no pattern. You need at least two years for a pattern.

Did you read this? https://forums.macrumors.com/threads/1377054/

So yes, I do believe there is a POSSIBILITY that a new iPhone will be announced.

There is a pattern, if you're not too blind to see it. The pattern is that the iOS software is in the hands of developers for a few months before the device is announced. This has happened with every single iPhone bar the first one.

There's not going to be an announcement at wwdc.

 

[\-V-/]

When there's absolutely NO evidence to suggest that the phone will be announced and released in time for July, especially given that there is evidence to the contrary, then yes, you're living in a dream world.

This...

I don't understand how people are 100% certain of something that isn't 100%. It's fun to get excited about products, but this is silly.

 

[matttye]

I would say all of these hardware part leaks are a very good sign something is afoot. I've been following Apple rumors for years, and hardware leaks like this almost always happen close to a release. It's very suspicious.

Leaks, or fakes?

We don't know at this point. For every actual leak there's about ten fakes.

 

[Moccasin]

All they need to do to stop people switching is announce the release date like they did last year. Most people coming to the end of their contract are going to wait a couple of months rather than switch immediately. If they have a compelling iOS6, even more reason to wait.

 

[CherryJello]

Leaks, or fakes?

We don't know at this point. For every actual leak there's about ten fakes.

If the leaks all came from one site then sure, it could easily be a fake. But multiple sites, just a day apart had different pieces of hardware that all matched up. That's not easy to fake. One picture here or there can easily be the work of fanboys but when there's a flood of photo's that are all of the same thing, it's time to start paying attention.

 

[matttye]

If the leaks all came from one site then sure, it could easily be a fake. But multiple sites, just a day apart had different pieces of hardware that all matched up. That's not easy to fake. One picture here or there can easily be the work of fanboys but when there's a flood of photo's that are all of the same thing, it's time to start paying attention.

Every device has that happen. It's not hard for a faker to anonymously email different fake pictures to different media sites.

You're letting your excitement cloud your judgement.

 

[iapplelove]

Not sure about July but I don't know why people have it stuck in their heads it has to be either June or sept just because iPhones in the past were released in those months..

It very well could be July or August as well..the telling sign for me comes down to ios6 and when it will be in developers hands ,imo they need about 90 days with the new operating system before public use and usually the new iOS and new hardware get released close together

 

[cyks]

If the leaks all came from one site then sure, it could easily be a fake. But multiple sites, just a day apart had different pieces of hardware that all matched up. That's not easy to fake. One picture here or there can easily be the work of fanboys but when there's a flood of photo's that are all of the same thing, it's time to start paying attention.

Right... and what of all of the tapered iPhone 5 parts, designs, and cases that made news (on multiple sites) last year?

 

[CherryJello]

Every device has that happen. It's not hard for a faker to anonymously email different fake pictures to different media sites.

You're letting your excitement cloud your judgement.

If you go back and look at MacRumor postings you'll see that various websites were holding different pieces of the same design.

UbreakiFix

Japanese Blog Macotakara

So if one person is out there making multiple convincing fakes and sending them out to different websites to publish along with taking pictures and sending them to MacRumors then that's a very sad individual. People toss around the word fake for these things like it's easy to make a brushed metal iPhone casing. Fakes in the past are always Apple website screen shots or a photo of a blurry box in the storage room, not building intricate pieces of hardware.

*Edit 1, also I remember that wicked looking fingernail being seen in leaks for an older iPhone a couple years ago, it was a Vietnamese repair website. They had iPhone parts running the new OS at the time I think. Anyways I don't remember exactly but those leaks were spot on for what eventually came out. Maybe the Macrumors staff can go back and find out for sure.

Edit 2:

Never mind. I found the photos. It was for an iPhone 4, this was a pre-release version that they got their hands on about a month before the eventual release.

Looks like it could be the same hand to me. I could never forget those messed up nails. But I think this could add creditability to the leak.

 

[CherryJello]

Right... and what of all of the tapered iPhone 5 parts, designs, and cases that made news (on multiple sites) last year?

If you go back and look in the archives, like I did, those were all just descriptions from Asian suppliers. At one point a CAD was put out which MacRumors used to make a mock-up of the teardrop design. But there were never any hardware leaks until late August which I referenced in my original post which proved the 4S would be the same design as the 4.

 

[Versionii]

Bigger scrn so iAPs can't be missed?!?!

I dunno about the rest of you, but I'm tired of these ads.
Even games with in app purchases has ads now.

Check it out tho, apple owns iAPs, apple can't stalk you however with the integration with Facebook, Apple can maybe stalk all your likes?!

 

[Moccasin]

Another compelling reason why it won't be released for a while is that Apple's logistics chain will be focused on delivering new Macs for a couple of months and their earnings will be smoothed over 2 financial quarters rather than 1.

The successful release of the iPad this year when supply just about kept up with demand, and the demise of iPod sales in autumn means that September/October is a perfect time to start shipping new iPhones from the factories to the markets. Next couple of months will no doubt be busy with macs - which take up a lot more shipping capacity per unit.

iPhone launches pre 4S were characterised by very low availability which is no way to launch a product expecting huge demand. Especially now that Android phones are so competitive. So Apple has to have a huge inventory ready to go before they launch. That means monopolising shipping routes for weeks ahead.

The financial argument is compelling for a company like Apple which has to report good earnings every quarter to maintain shareholder value. Again, all expectations are that the Mac line up will be refreshed over summer and so moving the iPhone into autumn keeps the money rolling in until Christmas.

 

[Sedrick]

I think that if all Apple has done in the last two years is stretch the iPhone vertically, then it could (and should) very well be announced this month. The OS is the only thing they would be waiting on, and something tells me that won't be that different to require months of beta testing.

 

[Small White Car]

Sorry, I don't find any of your points to be very convincing.

1. Leaked parts in the past have usually been genuine and start to appear around a month and a half before release.

Apple launched the new iPad in more countries than ever more quickly than ever. They'd clearly been making and stockpiling iPads for awhile. ALl these leaks are just another example of Apple making things earlier so they have more on hand when they're launched. Yes, they are making new iPhones. No, that doesn't mean they'll be sold soon.

2. A new screen size means Apple needs to give developers time to update their applications.

They didn't give developers advanced notice of the retina screen.
They didn't give developers advanced notice that the iPad screen size was coming.

What makes you think this year will be any different?

3. The unusually high number of TBA Developer sessions at WWDC. Gruber said it’s an obvious sign that they’re about something new, but the number means it’s something big.

Everyone seems to be thinking this is Apple TV stuff.

I don't know if it is, but why would Apple have to hide titles about the new iPhone? The title could be "Working with iPhone graphics" and that wouldn't tell anyone anything about what size screen it's going to have. I don't know if it's the Apple TV, but I don't see any reason to think the hidden stuff is iPhone stuff. They'd just make the titles generic enough to hide new details.

(Like...You could say "Working with Maps" and it doesn't say anything about if they'll have a new map app or not.)

4. There are millions of AT&T costumers who are currently on the 2 year update cycle that began with the 3G.

I remember when this exact argument was used to explain why Verizon would get the iPhone in 2009. That didn't happen.

Then I remember when it was used to explain why the 4S couldn't be delayed until fall. That did happen.

Basically, this argument has been used a lot for many different things and as far as I can tell Apple doesn't care about this one tiny bit.