Why there will not be an iPhone 4s - A thread using logic and not baseless claims!

[RafaelT]

So I have been reading all the threads about the possibility of a iPhone 4s and I realized that something does not quite make sense with that idea.

The iPhone 5 is going to have an amazing amount of demand. It is going to take up a large chunk of available iPhone manufacturing capacity and still will likely carry delayed shipping times for a long time after it is released. I don't think that anyone can reasonably argue against that.

Why would Apple use up a chunk of there manufacturing capability on an iPhone 4s, a low price (less profit) device when they have the perfectly good iPhone 4 to sell?

Logistically it just does not make sense.

The advantage of continuing to sell the 4 is that they already have a large amount of supply in the channel, to keep up with demand after the iPhone 5 is released means supplying a much smaller amount of iPhone 4's to the supply channel. If they were to switch to a iPhone 4s it would result in them having to restock the channel which means producing many more units and not dedicating as much manufacturing capacity to the iPhone 5.

In addition the logic above I also don't remember hearing any claims that the iPhone 4 production is winding down, just that less are being ordered which would make sense with what I said above.

Just my opinion!

 

[soco]

Did we need a whole new thread specifically for discussion of your opinion though? I'm sure this could have been posted to one of those existing threads.

 

[Agent-P]

I never really bought the idea of a low cost iPhone 4S coming out. For one, the name is just stupid sounding. But also, that's why Apple continues to offer their older iPhone models and sell them at a reduced cost. The previous generation iPhones are the low cost iPhones. They don't need to make another one just to fill that role.

 

[RafaelT]

Did we need a whole new thread specifically for discussion of your opinion though? I'm sure this could have been posted to one of those existing threads.

Obviously I felt that we did. I hardly ever start a new thread here and never start them for the heck of it. I didn't really feel my post fit in with any of the threads that I read that made me think of this and I am not looking to hijack anyone else thread with my idea.

If you felt this way wouldn't it have been batter to not reply and hope that the thread dropped off the front page and out of existence? I appreciate the concern though. Thanks.

 

[cyks]

Why would Apple use up a chunk of there manufacturing capability on an iPhone 4s, a low price (less profit) device when they have the perfectly good iPhone 4 to sell?

Logistically it just does not make sense.

The advantage of continuing to sell the 4 is that they already have a large amount of supply in the channel, to keep up with demand after the iPhone 5 is released means supplying a much smaller amount of iPhone 4's to the supply channel. If they were to switch to a iPhone 4s it would result in them having to restock the channel which means producing many more units and not dedicating as much manufacturing capacity to the iPhone 5.

You're making the assumption that there have a large supply of iPhone 4's in the supply channel, but what if they didn't?

Knowing the iPhone 4 will still be a popular phone even after the 5's release (as every previous model has been), they'd obviously want to continue making and selling it. The rumored iPhone 4s would lower the manufacturing costs and update it at the same time.

Your idea would make sense if they had a few months or even a years supply of iPhone 4's already made, but they don't. They likely have a few weeks (at best) that will sell between the keynote and availability of the new phones. Once the keynote announces the new phones, they can change their productions.

 

[soco]

Obviously I felt that we did. I hardly ever start a new thread here and never start them for the heck of it. I didn't really feel my post fit in with any of the threads that I read that made me think of this and I am not looking to hijack anyone else thread with my idea.

It's cool if that's how you felt. I just thought it silly and self-promoting.

If you felt this way wouldn't it have been batter to not reply and hope that the thread dropped off the front page and out of existence? I appreciate the concern though. Thanks.

I wasn't hoping for the thread to disappear. I was really asking a question. It wasn't rhetorical or sarcastic.

 

[RafaelT]

You're making the assumption that there have a large supply of iPhone 4's in the supply channel, but what if they didn't?

Knowing the iPhone 4 will still be a popular phone even after the 5's release (as every previous model has been), they'd obviously want to continue making and selling it. The rumored iPhone 4s would lower the manufacturing costs and update it at the same time.

Your idea would make sense if they had a few months or even a years supply of iPhone 4's already made, but they don't. They likely have a few weeks (at best) that will sell between the keynote and availability of the new phones. Once the keynote announces the new phones, they can change their productions.

Here is the problem that I see with this idea. You can't give a model an updated name and start giving a lesser quality product, people would flip out if Apple did that. They could replace some of the components with others that have come down in price that function the exact same way but that would not result in a model name change.

In terms of starting to manufacture them after the keynote.. that wouldn't work. They start manufacturing phones for a release at least a month before hand. It also takes time to switch over a production line like that.

Also that 2-3 weeks supply doesn't sound like much but we are probably talking about millions of phones.

I never really bought the idea of a low cost iPhone 4S coming out. For one, the name is just stupid sounding. But also, that's why Apple continues to offer their older iPhone models and sell them at a reduced cost. The previous generation iPhones are the low cost iPhones. They don't need to make another one just to fill that role.

Exactly

 

[cyks]

Here is the problem that I see with this idea. You can't give a model an updated name and start giving a lesser quality product, people would flip out if Apple did that. They could replace some of the components with others that have come down in price that function the exact same way but that would not result in a model name change.

Better processor + better camera + more RAM = name change that people would understand

 

[RafaelT]

Better processor + better camera + more RAM = name change that people would understand

And you have an iPhone 5... not a cheaper iPhone 4.

 

[Number 41]

And you have an iPhone 5... not a cheaper iPhone 4.

To the average consumer, that's the equivalent of painting a car and calling it a "new model."

Tech heads and geeks get all drooly over processor speeds and RAM. Regular people want to own something new and exciting. Slapping some processor in an iPhone 4 shell (actually, don't slap it -- you might shatter the glass) does not equal new and exciting.

 

[cyks]

And you have an iPhone 5... not a cheaper iPhone 4.

Unless they release the 5 at the same time with an updated case, larger display, and various other features.

Until anything is announced, it's all speculation and rumors, and to say something can or can't happen is silly. There are plenty of scenarios where an iPhone 4s would work and make sense.

 

[blairh]

So the iPhone 4S sounds stupid but the iPhone 3GS didn't?

Please.

Sadly I'm starting to think that the next gen iPhone is the 4S and will just be a tweaked redesign with faster internals. I pray I'm wrong, but that's just my guess unless stronger rumors say otherwise in the near future. These cases from China aren't exactly what one can call strong evidence of anything.

So purely guessing, the iPhone 4 becomes the lower end model (think current day 3GS) and the iPhone 4S is a faster iPhone 4 that also comes in a 64 GB variety.

(And yes, I want an iPhone 5 with a 4" screen, etc.)

 

[GoCubsGo]

Did we need a whole new thread specifically for discussion of your opinion though? I'm sure this could have been posted to one of those existing threads.

Yes because clearly this opinion is full of logic.

 

[phpmaven]

You could use the exact logic to argue that they wouldn't continue to offer an 3GS at the same time as the iPhone 4, and yet...

 

[aohus]

Sorry OP, but you're wrong.

The Wall Street Journal confirmed that Apple is making a low cost variant of the iPhone. WALL STREET JOURNAL. They always get controlled leaks from Apple, for those that follow Apple closely, you know.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704657104576142262842435544.html

Apple Inc. is working on the first of a new line of less-expensive iPhones and an overhaul of software services for the devices, people familiar with the matter said, moving to accelerate sales of its smartphones amid growing competition.

 

[elfy]

Know what I heard today? I swear this is true. A friend asked on Facebook whether they should get the iPhone 4 or wait for the iPhone 5 and someone told her that the iPhone 5 is just a download anyway and will be available to download on the iPhone 4.

Oh. My. Word.

 

[RafaelT]

So the iPhone 4S sounds stupid but the iPhone 3GS didn't?

Please.

Sadly I'm starting to think that the next gen iPhone is the 4S and will just be a tweaked redesign with faster internals. I pray I'm wrong, but that's just my guess unless stronger rumors say otherwise in the near future. These cases from China aren't exactly what one can call strong evidence of anything.

So purely guessing, the iPhone 4 becomes the lower end model (think current day 3GS) and the iPhone 4S is a faster iPhone 4 that also comes in a 64 GB variety.

(And yes, I want an iPhone 5 with a 4" screen, etc.)

I think the iPhone 3GS did sound like a stupid name. That doesn't mean they wouldn't call it something like that again but I think we are only going to see one new phone whether it be a 4GS or 5.

You could use the exact logic to argue that they wouldn't continue to offer an 3GS at the same time as the iPhone 4, and yet...

It takes less capacity to continue offering a phone that you have already been making then it does to launch a new phone.

Sorry OP, but you're wrong.

The Wall Street Journal confirmed that Apple is making a low cost variant of the iPhone. WALL STREET JOURNAL. They always get controlled leaks from Apple, for those that follow Apple closely, you know.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704657104576142262842435544.html

It is true that the WSJ does get controlled leaks but they do not have a perfect track record.

 

[SAD*FACED*CLOWN]

Sorry OP, but you're wrong.

The Wall Street Journal confirmed that Apple is making a low cost variant of the iPhone. WALL STREET JOURNAL. They always get controlled leaks from Apple, for those that follow Apple closely, you know.

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704657104576142262842435544.html

well the Wall Street Journal did flip flop a couple of times on the Verizon iPhone release...so they are just rehashing what their analysts tell them..a controlled Apple leak would be the Gizmodo thing from last Summer

 

[cyks]

It takes less capacity to continue offering a phone that you have already been making then it does to launch a new phone.

That's true... for only a little while.

If the new phone costs significantly less to build, it wouldn't take long for them to become more profitable then if they had simply left well enough alone...especially considering the quantities Apple sells things at.

 

[RafaelT]

That's true... for only a little while.

If the new phone costs significantly less to build, it wouldn't take long for them to become more profitable then if they had simply left well enough alone...especially considering the quantities Apple sells things at.

That is true. And I can definitely see it happening, just not quite yet. I know they are adding a second manufacturing partner early next year from the latest rumors anyway. If that is the case then I can definitely see a second smaller cheaper model next year.

 

[blairh]

I think the iPhone 3GS did sound like a stupid name. That doesn't mean they wouldn't call it something like that again but I think we are only going to see one new phone whether it be a 4GS or 5.

Well that's great but it's also pretty silly. "The name sounds stupid." Yeah, that's evidence it won't come to fruition.

OP, your problem is you seem to be thinking that the 4S is the lower based model. I don't think that makes any sense and people making that case are dead wrong. The 3GS was a better 3G iPhone. The 4S would instead become the next iPhone, not the iPhone 5.

There seems to be this rumor/line of thinking that there will be 2 models available this fall: 4S and iPhone 5. That's where people are making a mistake (I think).

All this talk of a lower based model is just going to be the iPhone 4. Perhaps they will only offer the iP4 in one variety at one price, but that makes sense as the lower priced offering. Instead the "better" model this fall would be the 4S. That model will have the internal updates and perhaps a slightly tweaked design, but ultimately will look a great deal like the iPhone 4.

Again, I don't want that to happen, but I think there is a stronger case that can be made that that is what will happen vs. a redesigned iPhone.

 

[aohus]

well the Wall Street Journal did flip flop a couple of times on the Verizon iPhone release...so they are just rehashing what their analysts tell them..a controlled Apple leak would be the Gizmodo thing from last Summer

you trollin?

the gizmodo fiasco was NOT a controlled leak. lmao.

 

[Geckotek]

well the Wall Street Journal did flip flop a couple of times on the Verizon iPhone release...so they are just rehashing what their analysts tell them..a controlled Apple leak would be the Gizmodo thing from last Summer

Yeah, the thing where people are currently on trial for stealing the phone? That is not how a major corporation does a controlled leak.

WSJ = controlled leak
Gizmodo iPhone 4 = Apple Cluster****

 

[hwall]

I think people are missing something here, imo the 4s rumours are just the cheeper iPhone 4 to be sold alongside the 5. I think the only reason people are thinking it will be a 4s (as in new phone) not just the 4 we have now is because it will probably be a world phone, not the separate cdma and gsm versions we have now, hence the slightly changed parts such as different bezels showing up in rumours.

I think it will still be an iPhone 4 sold alongside the 5 just a world phone version. It makes much more sense for apple to only offer one version.

 

[vitzr]

Since when did applied logic become relevant ?