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Why you won't have to wait as long for the next MBP update

J

jkconnections

macrumors newbie
Original poster
Feb 26, 2008
5
0
Let me start by saying that I've been a dedicated PC fan for many years, but Vista finally has converted me to the Mac. In december I sold my PC laptop in hopes of an upcoming update but now that the update is here, I'm going to wait a bit longer and here's why:

1. When Santa Rosa was released back in '07, PC makers started shipping the new versions in May '07. So how long did it take for Apple's genious marketing team to jump on board? 1 month - new updates to the MPB in June '07.

2. Intel is set to release montevina, which they are branding "Centrino 2," June 3-7. But did you notice what happens the following week? WWDC!! Apple is brilliant when it comes to marketing. They couldn't schedule WWDC for the week intel releases the new chip b/c then they couldn't update the MBP. Apple isn't going to let PC makers in on the new Intel marketing of Centrino 2 but leave their computers on core 2. Apple is too much of a marketing genius to do that.

3. Montevina is going to have the integrated support for Blue-ray. Why would Apple have spent R&D money to get blue-ray today when they can have intel do the work for them in terms of hardware in June?

4. Apple pretty much had to release an update today for two reasons: A. Dell and other PC makers are going to be selling Penryn and thus Apple's marketing team couldn't let them be left in the dust and B. It had already been 9 months since the last real update.

While it could take apple until August to get the Centrino 2, I'm going to predict June (based mainly on the fact that WWDC is the week after the Intel announcement).

While the video updates, Hard drive, and processor today were ok updates, I think Centrino 2, Blue Ray, and perhaps a new case design (considering the smaller form factor), would make an even bigger splash in June. And for that reason, I'm going to wait.

Thought's anyone?
 
Throw in a case and keyboard design update and Apple has an absolute winner on their hands. Here's to hoping today's disappointing showing is just a stopgap measure.
 
The reasoning is good, but who knows about factors outside of Apple's control? For example: the penryn processors were released by intel the week before Macworld. By your logic (and most everyone else's) apple would have been smart to release penryn MBPs at Macworld (they were overdue for an update in january). However, intel had major supply issues and no one could get a hold of the penryn processors. Thus, apple had to pull the mbp refresh announcement. My point is this: Although in a best case scenario the mbp refresh will be in june, who knows what could happen that apple doesn't intend (supply problems, hardware incompatibility, software incompatibility, a crippling bug, etc.) - any of these breaks in the chain and you could be waiting till august or september (gasp!) to get your next update. So, while I do agree it is more likely coming sooner rather than later, that's what we thought for this update too and look at what happened. Just my thoughts.
 
great post.

kind of a "we knew this" post

but well written.


im also going to say that we will see a dual update in june. MB and MBPs
 
who cares, i'll need one for the summer, go wait till September for the new one. This Penryn is gonna last me years.
 
they won't release a product a week after they get their hands on it, there are tests to run, compatibility issues, drives that need too be made. The most we can expect from wwdc is a date for the shipping of the new mbp. or maybe apple will wait for a montevina chipset and a nehalem processor.
 
jbg232 said:
The reasoning is good, but who knows about factors outside of Apple's control? For example: the penryn processors were released by intel the week before Macworld. By your logic (and most everyone else's) apple would have been smart to release penryn MBPs at Macworld (they were overdue for an update in january). However, intel had major supply issues and no one could get a hold of the penryn processors. Thus, apple had to pull the mbp refresh announcement. My point is this: Although in a best case scenario the mbp refresh will be in june, who knows what could happen that apple doesn't intend (supply problems, hardware incompatibility, software incompatibility, a crippling bug, etc.) - any of these breaks in the chain and you could be waiting till august or september (gasp!) to get your next update. So, while I do agree it is more likely coming sooner rather than later, that's what we thought for this update too and look at what happened. Just my thoughts.
Click to expand...

I do agree that you could be correct about those external factors; however, here's why I don't think that will be an issue this time:

Intel was stuck with a glut of the old processors and didn't want to loose money, so they invariably delayed things a bit to keep prices up. I remember reading stories something to that effect back in early Jan.

Also, intel has been planning for Centrino 2 for a long time and if you read the latest stories on google news, they going to phase out Santa Rosa quickly. http://www.electronista.com/articles/08/02/25/intel.phasing.out.old.core/

You can't phase out Santa Rosa unless you already have the next best thing coming down the pike. There's no way Intel is going to get caught saying, "sorry Dell, we sold all our Santa Rosa's but there's been a delay on Centrino 2, so I guess you just won't be able to sell any computers for a couple of months." If Intel's phasing out, it means they're ready for the next stage, so I don't think there will be an issue this time. But that's my 2c.

Any further thoughts anyone? It helps hashing my logic out to see if I'm missing anything. :)
 
duykur said:
they won't release a product a week after they get their hands on it, there are tests to run,
Click to expand...

Yes, but you're forgetting that intel provides hardware for vendors prior to releases. I knew an indiidual who had intel's latest hardware at least 6 months ahead of its release b/c he did beta testing for intel. And that was as an individual who didn't have a strong connection to the PC industry. My guess is that Apple already has the beta of Montevina and has probably had it for some time. (could be wrong though)
 
Good post OP. I totally agree. Today was a stop gap measure and I'm not paying $2500 for that. I will wait until June as well or at least until the freakin macbook pro gets a redesign. I just can't stand the current one. It was ok like 4yrs ago I guess.
 
Well, I agree that there will be updates in the future, but let's not get carried away. In 2020 you'll all hev better computers and noone is gonna wait for 12 years to get their first.
If you need it, buy it. The Penryn update makes it a very good machine, you'll love it for the years to come.
If you can wait for marvelous updates means you don't really need it.
 
Events at Moscone (where WWDC is held) are generally reserved well in advance. Although your reasoning makes some sense I feel as though we will not see the next MBP update until later in the summer, perhaps around August/September.

What will Apple do if Intel has issues with Montevina and has to push the release date back? Will Apple reschedule WWDC ... NO WAY. Apple's WWDC is a developer event and it will be the prime venue to release the next iPhone, a new product line, and a few hints about the next version of Mac OS X.

Mac updates will be released after the fact. Just my 2 cents. :cool:
 
jkconnections said:
Yes, but you're forgetting that intel provides hardware for vendors prior to releases. I knew an indiidual who had intel's latest hardware at least 6 months ahead of its release b/c he did beta testing for intel. And that was as an individual who didn't have a strong connection to the PC industry. My guess is that Apple already has the beta of Montevina and has probably had it for some time. (could be wrong though)
Click to expand...

but it took apple 1 month to release penryn products even though they had it (according to your prediction) for 6 months.
 
The case cannot get thinner and still fit a slot loading blu ray drive. The current case is already too small except for only ONE model: The Panasonic slimline. And that will only fit in the 17" MBP.

So unless Apple gets together with a company and builds a micro sized Blu ray drive, you won't see one in a thiner laptop.

If the MBP was only 4mm thicker it would fit a standard laptop blu ray drive and only cost at most $400.

But, thin is in! So we pay for that with specialized proprietary parts that cost 2.5X as much.
 
this is probably the best thread i have read that was started by a newbie. very good reasoning. i like your thinking , and i would have to agree with you! very good post and thanks for sharing your thoughts. like i've said on other threads, this update will just give us something even bigger come this summer. i think this could be a another very big year for apple:D
 
Hopefully they'll have a case and keyboard redesign into an overall slimmer/lighter model and that the moteniva chips will have no problems and we'll all have new MBPs in June! ;)
 
I don't want to believe this. I think I'll just get myself a computer and live with not having the newest and best in three months, if that happens.

Now, which one to get... :confused:
 
To the OP, I really, really like your insights.

I'm so glad I have until Christmas of 08, or even until Summer of 09 (WOW!) to even THINK about a laptop for college coming for me in September of 09. It's gonna be awesome to see what Apple has in store for many of us until then! For now, I will drool over the Pros and see what happens by the time a MBP is on my shopping list! Go Apple!!!
 
Wirelessly posted (HTC_P4550 Mozilla/4.0 (compatible; MSIE 6.0; Windows CE; IEMobile 7.6))

happylau said:
Well, I agree that there will be updates in the future, but let's not get carried away. In 2020 you'll all hev better computers and noone is gonna wait for 12 years to get their first.
If you need it, buy it. The Penryn update makes it a very good machine, you'll love it for the years to come.
If you can wait for marvelous updates means you don't really need it.
Click to expand...

I 100% agree with u. By the time a case redesign and all that come round, we'll be predicting the next one after that and so on. If you like to be indecisive and waste ur life waiting go ahead, but all you'll be harming yourself and others along with you.
 
I wish you luck :) Then again, it was a "sure thing" that Apple was to release updates at MacWorld......

So, my money is on July ;)
 
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