I think with dual core and the new graphics processor the argument that Flash can't be run on an iPad becomes pretty weak if not invalid. It will be interesting to see if Steve clings to that argument or if he allows Flash in IOS5
If the power is there to do it why not? I run across lots of Websites with Flash that I can't view and with the new chips there is no reason why I shouldn't be able to do so.
It has never been an issue of "not being able to run" on an iOS device. Certainly it will run. The problem has been in terms of consistency and openness.
Let's tackle #1 - Consistency. Most flash apps were never designed for touch interfaces in mind. Yea, sure, you can probably still use them, maybe not real well but they'll work "ok." But if you just let adobe get away with "ok" then you're making the argument that a certain part of iOS is now content at being "ok" instead of stellar like much of the rest of the experience. You allow Flash on, you just weakened the experience.
#2 - Openness. The open letter from Steve Jobs pretty much tells you that the web is an open set of standards. HTML is open, anyone can read the spec, contribute to it and make it happen. Same goes for CSS and many other technologies that make the web what it is. Anyone can implement these open standards. That's why we have Firefox, IE, Safari (along with any and all forks and deviations from these three browsers). Flash is run and operated by one company, Adobe. It isn't open. It isn't a "standard" that others can contribute to or collectively agree upon. If Adobe just decides to stop working on Flash one day no one has the ability to fix bugs or add new features to it. It's dead. This is not in the best interests of you or the internet. As unlikely as the scenario is it is merely an example of how control over flash is entirely in Adobes court.
Another factor is that various numbers have been thrown around about crashes. On Mac OS X I forget the number but a overwhelming majority of crashes (as submitted by the crash reporter in OS X) related to Safari have been the fault of Flash. Now imagine that happening to Mobile Safari on your iPad. I for one would be pretty upset. Oh, and Apple cannot fix these crashes. It's all on Adobe. And it's one more thing you have to update as well. Another thing that can be an exploit on your tablet. Just not good all around.
Allowing flash just means we allow advertising to continue to make obnoxious ads and drain battery life for those ads.
Flash is best left out of mobile devices. Simple as that. I have no sympathy for anyone wishing they could use Flash on their devices. If you seriously think Flash is needed, go buy an Android based device. Don't muck up my experience because you want crapware on your tablet.