Will the New iPad Pro Really Have the M4 Chip?

[tenthousandthings]

Excluding variants of existing chips, when has Apple ever launched a new chip with a new product other than an iPhone?

M1 is a variant of the A14
M2 is a variant of the A15
M3 is a variant of the A17

Apple hasn't announced the A18 yet. So if the M4 is announced before it, would that then make the A18 based off the M4? or the M4 based off the unannounced A18?

The only way I see Apple launching M4 with the iPad refresh is if they are doing it specifically to give developers and beta testers access to iPadOS 18's rumored AI features. That way they have some sort of device to test with before new iPhones and Macs get A18 and M4 with AI chips and iOS 18 and macOS 15 (is macOS even rumored to get AI features this year???)

I'm a firm "no" on whether or not it will happen, I think it's completely absurd, but if it does happen I think your understanding is correct as to why. The basic Mini would get it, too.

To respond to one of the points made against you earlier:

The Neural Engine NPU in the A17 is probably the same as M3. Apple used the newer INT8 performance rating for the A17, but continued to use the older INT16/FP16 performance rating for the M3. It's possible M3 doesn't support INT8, but as Anandtech put it, the discrepancy "is more of a curiosity than a concern." Regardless, the A17 doesn't have twice the NPU performance as the M3. Properly understood, the numbers indicate parity, not disparity.

 

[Tagbert]

of course it will have M4 the iPad Pro would be a dud on arrival If it was released with specs that isn't compatible for features that debut the following month.

Do you think that the entire Mac and iPad line will be incompatible with features announced next month? That would be a major self-own. It makes no sense to announce features at WWDC that won't run on any devices for several months. There is nothing radically different rumored for the M4 that would not run on M3 but maybe a little slower. When Apple brings out AI they are going to have to work out ways for it to run on their recent models otherwise they will have devalued all of those machines. People will not respond well to that.

 

[acctman]

iPad OS needs to be overhauled big time before adding the M4 … there is no added benefits. Let’s be real the current gen is plenty fast with no performance issues. Sure the m4 would be fine but a better Ui for multi-tasking and handling more windows would be nice. Stage manager is a good start but it needs to be a lot better

 

[Populus]

I’m actually tempted to put my M2 iPad Pro on sale in order to be able to get this newer M4 iPad Pro.

One thing that would absolutely make me jump to this new M4 device, is that they would trigger a macOS-like mode whenever it’s connected to an external display.

Also, hopefully it will come with a minimum of 12GB of RAM.

 

[Populus]

iPad OS needs to be overhauled big time before adding the M4 … there is no added benefits. Let’s be real the current gen is plenty fast with no performance issues. Sure the m4 would be fine but a better Ui for multi-tasking and handling more windows would be nice. Stage manager is a good start but it needs to be a lot better

Yes, it definitely needs to get a lot better. The external monitor experience needs a boost on its UI.

 

[Populus]

Do you think that the entire Mac and iPad line will be incompatible with features announced next month? That would be a major self-own. It makes no sense to announce features at WWDC that won't run on any devices for several months. There is nothing radically different rumored for the M4 that would not run on M3 but maybe a little slower. When Apple brings out AI they are going to have to work out ways for it to run on their recent models otherwise they will have devalued all of those machines. People will not respond well to that.

Maybe If after the M4 iPad Pro, they announce during the WWDC a few Mac devices with the new M4 chips and the new “star feature” that will make an intensive use of the new M4 chip.

Nevermind, It’s a too over-complicated strategy. I am getting carried by the hype.

 

[deconstruct60]

I’m gonna say no, with the caveat that it makes sense for Apple and TSMC to get off N3B as soon as possible as it’s a dead end with Apple being pretty much the only volume purchaser of it 🤷‍♂️

It likely isn't 'volume' as much as it is long term buyer.

Some reports are that Intel's Arrow Lake and Lunar Lake ( Ultra 200 variants. at least some of Lunar Lake and some large fraction of Arrow Lake ) compute tiles will be using N3B. ). Is Intel going to buy as many wafers as Apple did? Probably not. Is it 'low volume'? Again probably not.

With the extended delay, it might have made sense for Intel to switch to N3E, but I suspect it was too late in the process. Also doing re-spin to Intel 20A was costly enough, that they just kept going with N3B as the alternative version.

Intel Core Ultra 5 240F "Arrow Lake-S" CPU to use either 8+16 or 6+8 core tiles - VideoCardz.com

Core Ultra 5 240F, expected to use two versions of the Arrow Lake-S silicon A new rumor suggests Intel will continue its ‘tradition’ to mix silicon dies within the mid-range CPU segment. The next-gen Arrow Lake-S series is on track to debut on the desktop platform this year, introducing the...

videocardz.com

[ I suspect that the 'mobile' versions of Arrow lake will be the TSMC 8+16 die also. I wouldn't be surprised if there are 'extra' of those before the 'mobile' versions ramp that those are the alt 8+16 for the i5. With Intel doing a major time shift of N3B wafers, it wouldn't be surprising if TSMC was making them consume wafers whether they wanted them or not; penalty for early cancellation.

Not going to be surprised if the only 'eat your own dog food' , 20A die is the 6+8 one that would incrementally cheaper to re-spin. ]


Lunar Lake appears to have same basic core design as Arrow Lake ( Lion Cove / Skymont) so likely the same design for N3B just in a different sized and chunked die.

Intel Core Ultra 200V "Lunar Lake" Xe2-LPG graphics tested in first benchmarks - VideoCardz.com

HP Spectre X360 laptop with Intel Core Ultra 200V “Lunar Lake” shows up in first benchmarks One of the first tests of Xe2 graphics: even faster graphics at less power. HP is set to introduce a refresh of its laptop featuring a foldable screen, dubbed the X360 Spectre. This upcoming 2-in-1...

videocardz.com

Intel has made some "18A Lunar Lake" statements, but I suspect those won't be the highest volume part, nor truly arriving in 2024. [ An 18A Lunar Lake 'refresh' in 2025 wouldn't be too surprising. Or something bigger than just 4+4 cores. ]


Pretty good chance Intel is going to save a major chunk of its limited EUV fab capacity to make higher margin Xeon 6 products and outsource smaller die size at higher volume to TSMC ( who have lots more EUV fab capacity than Intel. )

However, by the end of 2025, if Intel has alternates on their own process and the volume is substantively lower ( because Ultra 300 (Panther Lake) and Xeon 7 are ramping up. ) Intel will likely scale back once they have bought whatever large volume of wafer starts they signed up to buy years ago. ( Unless Arrow/Lunar Lake turn out to be break away hits. I wouldn't hold my breath on that one. They have lots of good competition. And some new quirks like no SMT which will chase off a few folks. )

The core 'problem' is that Intel will be scaling down at least as fast as Apple will on N3B in 2025-26. ( the chip in the current iPhone 15 isn't going to change and Apple will still be selling a substantive volume of those two years from now. )

 

[furbzv1]

M3, M4... its not going to matter. They need something better than iPad OS

 

[jazz1]

I do want an M4 iPad Pro. But if it comes out with an M3 I might look hard at MacBook Airs (15" screen for diversity) again and keep my M1 iPad Pro.

Now this is a bizarre thought. Would the introduction of an M4 iPad would M3 MacBook Airs get a price drop due to the M4 iPad. Maybe an M4 iPad with spur the anticipation of a M4 MacBook Air, and dealers will want to reduce their M3 MacBook Air inventory.

 

[Populus]

I do want an M4 iPad Pro. But if it comes out with an M3 I might look hard at MacBook Airs (15" screen for diversity) again and keep my M1 iPad Pro.

Now this is a bizarre thought. Would the introduction of an M4 iPad would M3 MacBook Airs get a price drop due to the M4 iPad. Maybe an M4 iPad with spur the anticipation of a M4 MacBook Air, and dealers will want to reduce their M3 MacBook Air inventory.

Nah, M3 MacBook Airs won’t get a price reduction 1) because a Mac is still a Mac, and an iPad is -still- not able to run macOS. 2) Remember that the N3B is a difficult to manufacture process with low yields and the N3E is cheaper. So producing M4 wafers is actually much cheaper than M3 wafers.

 

[MrGimper]

Yes. No. Maybe.

Quality analyst right here

 

[crsh1976]

I don't see the point, unless the move is purely a marketing-led one to jump on the AI bandwagon since Apple already has waited too long and is increasingly looking like "they just don't get it" - meaning the chip itself won't present much improvement over the M3 (which is a meager improvement over the M2 as it is).

This said, the M3 is a fine chip and Apple should finish rolling it out to all Macs and iPads worthy of it instead of increasing the weirdness of their line-up with devices ranging from the base M2 (AVP) to the M4 in the iPad with everything in between in no sound order (pro desktops still on the M2 Max/Ultra being the weirdest part).

 

[MrGimper]

There will be a certain irony if apple drop the most recent/powerful chip in the iPad and continue with an OS that's gimped.

Probably better to M3 and awe us with iPadOS

 

[Matcha]

Do you think that the entire Mac and iPad line will be incompatible with features announced next month? That would be a major self-own. It makes no sense to announce features at WWDC that won't run on any devices for several months. There is nothing radically different rumored for the M4 that would not run on M3 but maybe a little slower. When Apple brings out AI they are going to have to work out ways for it to run on their recent models otherwise they will have devalued all of those machines. People will not respond well to that.

Yes I think that's the case along with the iPhone 16 Pro as well. Apple will flaunt a special neural engine processor that makes machine learning models faster on-device making these AI features for M4 the same way they limited entry to Stage Manager to M1 and Pencil Hover to M2.

 

[xxray]

Maybe If after the M4 iPad Pro, they announce during the WWDC a few Mac devices with the new M4 chips and the new “star feature” that will make an intensive use of the new M4 chip.

Nevermind, It’s a too over-complicated strategy. I am getting carried by the hype.

I don't think this is too far-fetched. I can see Apple just launching the M4 with the iPads and just claiming how AI-ready it is without calling out specific iPad AI features, and then using the iPad Pro as the flagship AI product demo at WWDC for iOS 18/iPadOS 18.

Apple's already in a conundrum as far as marketing if they need the M4/A18 chips to power a lot of the new AI features as obviously the A18 chip won't be ready until the iPhone in September. I mean half of the Mac lineup is on M2 still, and it's the most powerful Macs. Are you going to tell me those Macs will miss out on a lot of new features at WWDC? It would be a slap in the face to their highest paying customers and ones that finally switched to Apple Silicon. It seems more likely that a lot of the AI features at WWDC will be able to work on current devices (maybe M1 and later?), with some on-device features saved for hardware announcements in the fall.

 

[TVreporter]

Couldn’t they just announce the new M4 iPad but state it won’t be available until WWDC?

Seems everyone assumes it’s going to be available right away - what if they just introduce it, and reveal more to come?

 

[bronksy]

Still wondering why it would need an M3 or M2, tbh.

So it can be their best iPad yet.

 

[Tagbert]

Maybe If after the M4 iPad Pro, they announce during the WWDC a few Mac devices with the new M4 chips and the new “star feature” that will make an intensive use of the new M4 chip.

Nevermind, It’s a too over-complicated strategy. I am getting carried by the hype.

Yea, AI will likely be featured at WWDC but AI is not likely to be a single star feature that either is supported or not. It will be a part of all kinds of apps (as it is now but more). It will be part of the OS. I would expect some parts to run on device and some on server. Some will run faster on new hardware and some will run a little slower on older hardware. (It's possible it will not run on Intel machines at all).

 

[Bboble]

It will be hilarious if we see M4 iPad released 4 months after M2 Vision Pro.

 

[deconstruct60]

The thing that makes this plausible is that both Apple and TSMC might want to move to N3E ASAP for reasons of cost/yields.

TSMC charges more for N3B wafers than N3E, it shouldn't 'cost' them more than what they are charging. There are claims that Apple had some sweetheart deal where they only paid for good dies. That is probably over at this point and Apple is paying per wafer ( and the yields are no where near as 'horrible' as folks are imagining. )

TMSC probably has only allocated a finite amount of EUV fab capacity to N3B. If Intel comes in and starts buying N3B wafers in increasing quantities then it is zero-sum game. Fixed capacity and more wafer orders.

More so it probably doesn't make sense for TSMC to allocation any more EUV fab facility to N3B than they already have. That would cost money to add , but if TSMC doesn't add it... then no real cost is incurred. ( And if Apple made TSMC 'eat' a high number of bad dies early in the process ... all the more reason not to turn it off too quickly. They now need to offset those early losses. )


N3E wafers cost less, but they also make the dies incrementally bigger, so users need to use incrementally more wafers when consuming very large wafer volumes (TSMC still has a chance to grow revenue on higher volume processed). N3E still costs more than N5-N4 series. N3E keeps more foundry clients happy because there 'bake' time is slightly shorter for there is more aggregate throughput to share for a fixed size set of EUV fab machines.

 

[Populus]

It will be hilarious if we see M4 iPad released 4 months after M1 Vision Pro.

Vision Pro has an M2.

 

[fakestrawberryflavor]

They could have planned for this well in advance to compete with the yet unknown (at the time of M4 planning) Qualcomm X Elite. A properly executed M4 and an ahead of schedule launch might just put the nail in the coffin of this Qualcomm generation.

 

[Orange Bat]

So does iPadOS 17.5 come with AI capabilities? If not... what will they show regarding AI? And the iPadAir is already DOA cause it doesn't get the newest AI chip?

If they go with M4 they’ll talk about the improved AI capabilities of the hardware for the new iPad Pro, and for iPadOS/iOS at WWDC. And, yes, iPad Air will only get the M3. Apple always works on a tiered system, so having iPad Air being the mid-range iPad without the AI capabilities fits right in, and they can offer an upgrade to M4 once M5 is introduced.

 

[Chuckeee]

M3 Pro on the 1TB and maybe 2TB models would make sense too.

M3Pro runs hot enough that it requires a fan or some sort of very aggressive cooling. I just can’t see that happening in an iPad chassis.

 

[Bremse]

I wonder what they are hinting at with the tag line “let loose”. Maybe cellular standard in all models? Maybe wireless charging? WiFi 7?